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So IF acceptable loss is in our future, who here considers themselves at risk? Who has family that might be lost?
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr. -
seems like there is a pretty big disconnect, at this point, between people in the NYC region and those who aren't. a friend's wife is a nurse in Westchester County, NY - just north of NYC - and posts:
"The hospital where my wife works now has no ICU beds available. All filled. This is getting ugly early. My wife works in the ER. But she has to admit patients and there is no place to admit."
this is what I mean by "brutal."
from Bloomberg.com re NYC hospitals:
"After harried preparations, hospitals in the New York area are being pummeled with patients, including a surprising number of young people. Healthcare workers, including those who recently became sick with the virus, are pushing to respond in every way possible.
At the same time, supplies of protective gear are running dangerously low at many facilities. Tensions are flaring among staff who feel they are poorly equipped and unprotected."
"Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.
The swell is pushing out patients with other serious conditions, Goldman says. Cancer patients are having chemo treatments postponed, and wait times for treatment of even severe injuries, such as broken limbs, are spiking."Last edited by Judge Jude; 03-21-2020, 08:22 PM.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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I think you are closer than gcstomp for the death rate, but you are still way under the best guesses we have now. Even if we go with .5%, that would mean a higher transmission rate than we think it has now, which would mean, basically, we are all getting this at some point. That still means over 1 million dead in the US alone. I really don't know the right answers for this. We don't know enough, and we will need to make hard choices.
My hope is would could commit to this fight as hard as we do to war. Factories should be converted NOW to make more masks, more ventilators. Training of unemployed to help with health care, conversion of big spaces to house the sick, we can do more on those fronts than we have so far.Comment
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Biggest risk in my family would be my mother. She is only in mid-60s, but has three auto-immune disease and bad lungs. And is on SSD and can't get a doctor's appt for the serious issues she is having right now. If she catches this thing, I think her chances of dying of it are well over 10%.Comment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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When folks talk about those who want to get back to normalcy as being selfish, because it would mean many more dead, I get that. But on the other hand, many of those people are a paycheck from being homeless. I know there are measures in place that will help with that, but sooner or later, people with not enough to feed their families are going to want society to get back to functioning, so they can work. I cannot measure what is right between 100s of thousands more dead vs 10s of millions destitute and whatever deaths may come from that.
I do want us all to do what we can to make sure all the shortages we have are addressed ASAP. As I said, I don't know why we can't get protective gear made and people trained and spaces converted to help address the shortages in health care we are facing. That should be happening right now.Comment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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You seem to think it is a matter of people choosing pieces of paper vs people's lives. I don't see it that way. The economy isn't just pieces of paper. It is people's livelihood. This disease is going to kill many. My mother could be one of them. What angers me is seeing what could be done that is not being done. But the macro issue of when to stop extreme isolation measures is a hard one, as it is devastating to people either way. The world does not have enough resources to support everyone indefinitely if most people are not participating in it. At a certain point, I hope we have the facilities and treatments in place so we can get society running in full swing again. I don't know at what point we will reach a tipping point on that. I hope we can lower that mortality rate before we get to that point.Comment
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It is maddening to see how long our government ignored this threat. It is maddening to see some things we could be doing not being done fast enough. But again, all of that is separate from the issue of how long we as a society can keep most workers not working (some estimates suggest that ideally, we'd isolate for 12-18 months, or at least cycle period of isolation for that long, until we get a vaccine). Maybe we could, if Andrew Yang's future of almost total automation were already here. In fact, one negative consequence of this that isn't talked about is that this might hasten that process. I know in my own field, there is real worry that this crisis will lead to more online, mass teaching, which will result in less teachers. A lot of industries may face the same thing. Many jobs may be automated and lost to those who want to go back to them when this thing is over. A lot of the tech is there, but many places have not taken the plunge, because real workers are still more cost effective, but that math is changes daily the longer we are shut down.Comment
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But changing the system of Govt in place could do both--save the sick and the economy. Capitalism vs Democratic Socialism. Wouldn't that be the ultimate solution to ask the upper 10% to sacrifice some MONEY to save LIVES? Yes, it takes us to a new day-- but a new day where everyone doesn't go without or is in need an EVERYONES effort is rewarded equally.If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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Interesting followup from Yahoo News, which is hardly a pro-Trump source: https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...sf_akfmevaatcaI'm just here for the baseball.
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absolutely cannot see this shut down lasting into the summer unless things get way worse.
how do you know his early public comments meant he didnt take it seriously in private? Not looking to get in a food fight, just wondering... I also wish he had been publicly sounding the alarms, thats what I was doing also within my groups of friends and family and I got laughed at, they thought I was crazy. I also commanded the panic brigade during SARS and Ebola... guess I get it right every once in a while.I do wish Trump had taken it more seriously when he was briefed on this months."The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times
"For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts" - Joe BidenComment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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