Corona Virus

[GwynnInTheHall]

So IF acceptable loss is in our future, who here considers themselves at risk? Who has family that might be lost?

[Judge Jude]

seems like there is a pretty big disconnect, at this point, between people in the NYC region and those who aren't. a friend's wife is a nurse in Westchester County, NY - just north of NYC - and posts:

"The hospital where my wife works now has no ICU beds available. All filled. This is getting ugly early. My wife works in the ER. But she has to admit patients and there is no place to admit."

this is what I mean by "brutal."

from Bloomberg.com re NYC hospitals:

"After harried preparations, hospitals in the New York area are being pummeled with patients, including a surprising number of young people. Healthcare workers, including those who recently became sick with the virus, are pushing to respond in every way possible.

At the same time, supplies of protective gear are running dangerously low at many facilities. Tensions are flaring among staff who feel they are poorly equipped and unprotected."

"Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.

The swell is pushing out patients with other serious conditions, Goldman says. Cancer patients are having chemo treatments postponed, and wait times for treatment of even severe injuries, such as broken limbs, are spiking."

[Sour Masher]

Not sure how you think my post is extreme when we all know there are many unreported cases. I think the US will end up below 1%, probably well below... 0.13% is low, but .5% could easily happen. We wont know until long after this is over and everything has been studied.

I think you are closer than gcstomp for the death rate, but you are still way under the best guesses we have now. Even if we go with .5%, that would mean a higher transmission rate than we think it has now, which would mean, basically, we are all getting this at some point. That still means over 1 million dead in the US alone. I really don't know the right answers for this. We don't know enough, and we will need to make hard choices.

My hope is would could commit to this fight as hard as we do to war. Factories should be converted NOW to make more masks, more ventilators. Training of unemployed to help with health care, conversion of big spaces to house the sick, we can do more on those fronts than we have so far.

[Sour Masher]

So IF acceptable loss is in our future, who here considers themselves at risk? Who has family that might be lost?

Biggest risk in my family would be my mother. She is only in mid-60s, but has three auto-immune disease and bad lungs. And is on SSD and can't get a doctor's appt for the serious issues she is having right now. If she catches this thing, I think her chances of dying of it are well over 10%.

[GwynnInTheHall]

seems like there is a pretty big disconnect, at this point, between people in the NYC region and those who aren't. a friend's wife is a nurse in Westchester County, NY - just north of NYC - and posts:

"The hospital where my wife works now has no ICU beds available. All filled. This is getting ugly early. My wife works in the ER. But she has to admit patients and there is no place to admit."

this is what I mean by "brutal."

from Bloomberg.com re NYC hospitals:

"After harried preparations, hospitals in the New York area are being pummeled with patients, including a surprising number of young people. Healthcare workers, including those who recently became sick with the virus, are pushing to respond in every way possible.

At the same time, supplies of protective gear are running dangerously low at many facilities. Tensions are flaring among staff who feel they are poorly equipped and unprotected."

Would you be ok with the Govt appropriating land and constructing emergency medical facilities to accommodate the sick?

[Sour Masher]

When folks talk about those who want to get back to normalcy as being selfish, because it would mean many more dead, I get that. But on the other hand, many of those people are a paycheck from being homeless. I know there are measures in place that will help with that, but sooner or later, people with not enough to feed their families are going to want society to get back to functioning, so they can work. I cannot measure what is right between 100s of thousands more dead vs 10s of millions destitute and whatever deaths may come from that.

I do want us all to do what we can to make sure all the shortages we have are addressed ASAP. As I said, I don't know why we can't get protective gear made and people trained and spaces converted to help address the shortages in health care we are facing. That should be happening right now.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Biggest risk in my family would be my mother. She is only in mid-60s, but has three auto-immune disease and bad lungs. And is on SSD and can't get a doctor's appt for the serious issues she is having right now. If she catches this thing, I think her chances of dying of it are well over 10%.

How does that weigh on you? How would you reconcile losing her to watching the economy crash?

[Sour Masher]

Would you be ok with the Govt appropriating land and constructing emergency medical facilities to accommodate the sick?

I don't think they would even have to do that. There are buildings now that could be converted. We just need t cut the red tape and start doing it.

[Judge Jude]

Would you be ok with the Govt appropriating land and constructing emergency medical facilities to accommodate the sick?

everything may be on the table at some point. the latter already is happening in my area.

[Sour Masher]

How does that weigh on you? How would you reconcile losing her to watching the economy crash?

You seem to think it is a matter of people choosing pieces of paper vs people's lives. I don't see it that way. The economy isn't just pieces of paper. It is people's livelihood. This disease is going to kill many. My mother could be one of them. What angers me is seeing what could be done that is not being done. But the macro issue of when to stop extreme isolation measures is a hard one, as it is devastating to people either way. The world does not have enough resources to support everyone indefinitely if most people are not participating in it. At a certain point, I hope we have the facilities and treatments in place so we can get society running in full swing again. I don't know at what point we will reach a tipping point on that. I hope we can lower that mortality rate before we get to that point.

[Sour Masher]

It is maddening to see how long our government ignored this threat. It is maddening to see some things we could be doing not being done fast enough. But again, all of that is separate from the issue of how long we as a society can keep most workers not working (some estimates suggest that ideally, we'd isolate for 12-18 months, or at least cycle period of isolation for that long, until we get a vaccine). Maybe we could, if Andrew Yang's future of almost total automation were already here. In fact, one negative consequence of this that isn't talked about is that this might hasten that process. I know in my own field, there is real worry that this crisis will lead to more online, mass teaching, which will result in less teachers. A lot of industries may face the same thing. Many jobs may be automated and lost to those who want to go back to them when this thing is over. A lot of the tech is there, but many places have not taken the plunge, because real workers are still more cost effective, but that math is changes daily the longer we are shut down.

[GwynnInTheHall]

You seem to think it is a matter of people choosing pieces of paper vs people's lives. I don't see it that way. The economy isn't just pieces of paper. It is people's livelihood. This disease is going to kill many. My mother could be one of them. What angers me is seeing what could be done that is not being done. But the macro issue of when to stop extreme isolation measures is a hard one, as it is devastating to people either way. The world does not have enough resources to support everyone indefinitely if most people are not participating in it. At a certain point, I hope we have the facilities and treatments in place so we can get society running in full swing again. I don't know at what point we will reach a tipping point on that. I hope we can lower that mortality rate before we get to that point.

But changing the system of Govt in place could do both--save the sick and the economy. Capitalism vs Democratic Socialism. Wouldn't that be the ultimate solution to ask the upper 10% to sacrifice some MONEY to save LIVES? Yes, it takes us to a new day-- but a new day where everyone doesn't go without or is in need an EVERYONES effort is rewarded equally.

[chancellor]

With the expulsion of Foreign Journalists, I would doubt China as well.

Interesting followup from Yahoo News, which is hardly a pro-Trump source: https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...sf_akfmevaatca

[cardboardbox]

In this country, I strongly suspect we won't have the stamina for isolation measures that last 6-12 months. I'm thinking by the end of May, those states that have shut things down, like NY, will be dealing with rising calls for a return to normalcy, a return to work.

absolutely cannot see this shut down lasting into the summer unless things get way worse.

I do wish Trump had taken it more seriously when he was briefed on this months.

how do you know his early public comments meant he didnt take it seriously in private? Not looking to get in a food fight, just wondering... I also wish he had been publicly sounding the alarms, thats what I was doing also within my groups of friends and family and I got laughed at, they thought I was crazy. I also commanded the panic brigade during SARS and Ebola... guess I get it right every once in a while.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Interesting followup from Yahoo News, which is hardly a pro-Trump source: https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...sf_akfmevaatca

Absolutely unsurprising. I don't trust any enemy of the US to be forthright about this or fail to attempt to not use it against us.