Corona Virus

[Mithrandir]

As China has stanched its coronavirus outbreak to around 85,000 cases, with just a few new cases trickling in this week, we're getting reports that every person in NJ will get it and the total cases in the US will be in the tens of millions. Yet we're not asking them for help?

Supreme arrogance or outright stupidity?

Or scare tactics?

[cardboardbox]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but this is a very interesting development. I think she is going to be all in on 2024 whether Trump or Biden wins this year. She is officially playing the long game.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/nikki-...s-bailout-bid/

Are there any industries worth saving? BTW, I'm a big fan of Haley.

[chancellor]

As China has stanched its coronavirus outbreak to around 85,000 cases, with just a few new cases trickling in this week, we're getting reports that every person in NJ will get it and the total cases in the US will be in the tens of millions. Yet we're not asking them for help?

Supreme arrogance or outright stupidity?

I’d venture to say that it’s highly unlikely the Chinese are telling the truth. Now, South Korea....that’s a different story.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I’d venture to say that it’s highly unlikely the Chinese are telling the truth. Now, South Korea....that’s a different story.

With the expulsion of Foreign Journalists, I would doubt China as well.

[nots]

Are there any industries worth saving? BTW, I'm a big fan of Haley.

Great to see you posting a bit lately.
I’m not smart enough to know what to do in this situation, but we have to do a lot to save the small business of the country though I doubt that will be the priority.
Airlines asking for $ after using their last bailout to buyback their own stock, makes me really reticent to help them again.At the same time, AmErica can not withstand the collapse of that industry.
I like Haley a lot as well. At this way-too-early date, I would love to see her or Charlie Baker as the 2024 GOP nominee.

[cardboardbox]

Great to see you posting a bit lately.
I’m not smart enough to know what to do in this situation, but we have to do a lot to save the small business of the country though I doubt that will be the priority.
Airlines asking for $ after using their last bailout to buyback their own stock, makes me really reticent to help them again.At the same time, AmErica can not withstand the collapse of that industry.
I like Haley a lot as well. At this way-too-early date, I would love to see her or Charlie Baker as the 2024 GOP nominee.

I think we need the airlines and we need to have more than the last one standing if multiple airlines go bankrupt. Any govt money needs to be used to keep the company running, nothing else. It should also be paid back, slowly if needed. I dont think we should bailout the cruise liner industry, not that I dont sympathize with their employees, but we cant save everyone and they arent essential to anything. I have no idea what to do about small businesses.

[cardboardbox]

As China has stanched its coronavirus outbreak to around 85,000 cases, with just a few new cases trickling in this week, we're getting reports that every person in NJ will get it and the total cases in the US will be in the tens of millions. Yet we're not asking them for help?

Supreme arrogance or outright stupidity?

Is this the same China that threatened to throw the US into "the mighty sea of the coronavirus?"

[cardboardbox]

One study I read today says that the infection rate is actually 11 times higher than reported. As of yesterday, the mortality rate of the virus in the US was 1.32% but that is based on deaths/positive tests. If we assume 10 times higher infection rate for easy math, the mortality rate is .13%

[gcstomp]

latest numbers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 304,788 cases. 13000 deaths. But we would not simply look at cases vs deaths, after all someone infected this morning will take 3 weeks to either get critically ill, or die. Of the 107, 794 cases closed, 94793 are recovered and discharged, remaining 13k deaths, so 12 % death rate.

now to u.s., https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ of the 24218 cases, there have been 473 closed cases. 171 discharged, and 302 deaths, for a death rate of 64%. this will within hours be outdated, and in any case is such a small sample as to not be relevant. u.s. cases have been doubling roughly every 2 days. in any case, this appears to be well higher than the stated WHO death rate of 4.1% worldwide.

[Sour Masher]

B2B speculative posts at two extremes. I think it is best to stick with the best estimates provided by the most knowledgeable sources. They may be off, given all the unknowns, but they are much more likely to be closer than the extremes you guys are suggesting.

This article indicates the mortality rate in Wuhan was actualy 1.4%, lower than initial estimates, and likely still higher than the rate in the US, for a variety of reasons outlined:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/h...h=login-google

Here is another recent article that suggest it will end up with a 1% mortality rate:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/what-is-coronavirus-mortality-rate-covid-19

Still, even a 1% mortality rate would be over 10 times that of the seasonal flu. So, still a really big deal worthy of the measures being taken. But the outcomes are unlikely to be as bad as the worst case scenarios some are focusing on, both because of the measures we are taking as well as the lower mortality rate than first imagined.

[Sour Masher]

The higher death rates in Italy are likely due to several factors. 1. It is the second oldest population in the world 2. In Italy, they have chosen to code all deaths of anyone with CVID-19 as dying of it, even in cases of severe underlying conditions. In such cases, COVID-19 may have just been the final straw. I don't know what the right way to code this--I can see why we would count deaths this way. But China and other countries count them differently, so we will continue to see a lot of variability.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

[Judge Jude]

the main issue is that often-noted "bending the curve" - doing everything possible to avoid the now-inevitable overwhelming spike in simultaneous cases in NYC, for example. seems as if the 1 pct rate would apply with the assumption that hospitals avoid exceeding capacity.

we're still behind the curve overall, but making progress. it will be a brutal next 2 weeks, however. after that is when we may see the spike slowed after all these measures being taken.

[gcstomp]

wuhan had a 1.4% rate, but how relevant is this? Links I posted are actual reported cases of virus, with reported deaths, and closed/discharged cases. They will be vastly different by morning, as especially in this country, this is a pandemic at the very earliest stage of the upward spike. but they are the numbers being reported and arent mere speculative, though the projecting the wuhan 1.4% as a worldwide number mortality rate is speculative is very much in the feel good category. china itself has a 4.1% reported mortality rate, but italy is 10 times that, at 44% of closed cases are death, 56% recovered/discharged.

We are in early stages, and as i said numbers will be vastly different even by morning, so reported death rates in just ramping up pandemic are grossly inaccurate. Someone mentioned they are almost positive china is under reporting numbers, and I am pretty certain of that as well. Also entire countries numbers are being withheld, such as north korea, which borders china and has terribly archaic healthcare. You dont think they have a huge breakout? Or iran, which is under reporting, 1/2 their parliament is infected with top leaders dead from virus.

The really concerning aspect is the projected spread. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/u...-estimate.html Some CDC projections are for 160 mill to 214 mill infections in u.s. with even higher numbers globally. And what about the economic toll? Millions of small business going under, millions of hourly workers who are being forced to stay home and not earn a paycheck. I think this is being taken too lightly. Vietnam war was over a decade and was 58k u.s. deaths and was a big deal with daily protests in street etc. This will be many millions of deaths, and it will be vastly under reported imo. This is targeted to older demographic, those over 80 will be hit hard, and those unhealthy. Smokers will be hit hard, the obese, the undiagnosed heart problems.

[cardboardbox]

B2B speculative posts at two extremes. I think it is best to stick with the best estimates provided by the most knowledgeable sources. They may be off, given all the unknowns, but they are much more likely to be closer than the extremes you guys are suggesting.

This article indicates the mortality rate in Wuhan was actualy 1.4%, lower than initial estimates, and likely still higher than the rate in the US, for a variety of reasons outlined:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/h...h=login-google

Here is another recent article that suggest it will end up with a 1% mortality rate:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/what-is-coronavirus-mortality-rate-covid-19

Still, even a 1% mortality rate would be over 10 times that of the seasonal flu. So, still a really big deal worthy of the measures being taken. But the outcomes are unlikely to be as bad as the worst case scenarios some are focusing on, both because of the measures we are taking as well as the lower mortality rate than first imagined.

Not sure how you think my post is extreme when we all know there are many unreported cases. I think the US will end up below 1%, probably well below... 0.13% is low, but .5% could easily happen. We wont know until long after this is over and everything has been studied.

[Sour Masher]

Yes, of course, this will be devastating both in terms of lost lives to the virus and lost lives and ruined lives due to the economic impact of the measures implemented to slow the virus and flatten (and elongate) the curve. As we get a better handle on the mortality rate, and if it is under 1% as some recent reports indicate it might be, especially if we ramp up production of masks and devices to help those critically ill, and expand space for them, I think the consensus will eventually come to the hard choice of releasing society from isolation to get back to work, even if that means more of a spike and more dead of the virus. The terrible choice of 100s of thousand more dead of the virus vs millions destitute, with many deaths as a result of that, will be made.

In this country, I strongly suspect we won't have the stamina for isolation measures that last 6-12 months. I'm thinking by the end of May, those states that have shut things down, like NY, will be dealing with rising calls for a return to normalcy, a return to work. The same decisions had to be made in 1918, worldwide, and then we saw strong opposition to shutting down the economy. It made things much worse in terms of the number of people who died at that time. I do not think this pandemic will end up being as bad in terms of deaths. I don't think we will come close to the 50-100 million dead from then, and certainly not in terms of percentage of the word population. But there will be millions dead, I believe, and possibly more devastating, a possible worldwide depression that impoverishes many millions more. I do not know what the right decision are at this time. I do wish Trump had taken it more seriously when he was briefed on this months.