Corona Virus

[The Feral Slasher]

Just read an analysis that u.s. will average 2000 deaths per day starting in about 3 weeks. And that is without further spread, it is already a done deal. And cases are rising extremely rapidly, so likely to be much worse than 2000. The government response at all levels does not seem adequate

When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.

On Nov 11th I made the post you referred to stating "(I)Just read an analysis that u.s. will average 2000 deaths per day starting in about 3 weeks."

Three weeks from Nov 11th was Dec 2. Unfortunately, the number of deaths reported on Dec 2 -Dec 4 were 2885, 2857, and 2637. On Dec 4, 23 days after my post, the 7 day moving average increased to 2038. This is from the New York Times
(source https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html)

Besides being 3 days early, your post above seems way off base, to put it mildly. Nothing about what I posted was unrealistic, ridiculous, alarmist, etc. Since you made that claim multiple times I figured I would respond. It is apparent from your above post and other recent posts that you looked at reported data from Thanksgiving and the several following days and made some conclusions that are incorrect. However, I really have no desire to go into that and would prefer to just move on and focus elsewhere.

[rhd]

Well, I guess I'll take my lumps. After appearing to be levelling off, the fall surge really took off again this week. 5 straight days w more than 2,400 deaths and as of Saturday the 7-day average daily deaths is now above 2,000 at 2,123, which is just barely a new record over the mark from April. The positivity rate which had been going down even before Thanksgiving has now all of a sudden jumped back up. This was more than just catchup from Thanksgiving and last weekend. This is an increase in the surge. The hospitalizations tho declined slightly on Saturday. I'm not sure anyone knows where this pandemic is headed on a weekly basis, me included. But the vaccines are coming.

[revo]

Crazy Rudy Giuliani tests positive for covid.

[Kevin Seitzer]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

I've been thinking of you guys and wondering how you are doing.

[The Feral Slasher]

The political stuff is coming from other people in this thread, not me. I'm just trying to present the data and other useful and educational info. Hopefully that will keep more people from getting sick.

I appreciate that you are presenting information and hope to educate people. I think it would be helpful if you also considered that other people can also present useful and educational information, and listened to what they have to say.

[madducks]

Crazy Rudy Giuliani tests positive for covid.

Who's going to fight the war against election fraud?

[madducks]

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 11/30 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (11/16).

- 15,159,529 cases in the US, up from 13,751,337, an increase of 10.24% which is a larger increase than last time (9.22%). The new cases for this period were 1,408,192 which gives a 7-day daily average of 201,170, up sharply from 165,882. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,161,117) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.213, much higher than that of the last update (0.949). The current test positivity rate is 10.66%, much higher than that of the last update (9.50%) and still way above the WHO threshold figure of 5.0%. Total CV-19 hospitalizations are 101,487, up from 93,238, an increase of 8.85% over last week which is a smaller increase than last update (11.17%), but still the highest level during the entire pandemic. Currently, there are 7 states that have an R-naught below 1.0, less than the 10 in the last update, and the overall US R-naught still must be well above the recommended threshold of 1.0. The values for the different states range from 0.92-1.24.
- 288,906 deaths in the US, up from 273,101, an increase of 5.79% which is a much larger increase than last time (3.95%). The new deaths for this period were 15,805. The mortality rate is 2.54% (288,906/11,367,214), lower than last time (2.65% (273,101/10,292,492)). The mortality rate for the week's new deaths is 1.47% (15,805/1,074,722), higher than last time (1.27% (10,390/816,620)). The latest 7-day daily average # of new deaths is 2,171, up very sharply from 1,422 7 days ago. The "increase" in average daily deaths over the prior week is 52.7%, whereas the increase in average daily cases from 3 weeks ago over the prior week was 31.6%. The 3-week increase in deaths is 25.3% (288,906/230,510) whereas the increase in cases from 6 weeks ago to 3 weeks after that is 27.9% (11,367,214/8,889,577). These figures indicate a much stronger correlation that it appeared a week ago. The past week saw a another spike in the fall surge that I think cannot be completely accounted for by any undercounting from Thanksgiving. The spike was particularly pronounced in deaths but cases were up also.
- 67,526,574 cases worldwide, up from 63,200,402, an increase of 6.85% which is a slightly smaller increase than last time (6.92%). The new cases for this period were 4,326,172 which gives a 7-day daily average of 618,025, up from 584,014. A comparison w last period's new cases (4,088,095) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.058, which is higher than last time (0.981).
- 1,544,918 deaths worldwide, up from 1,468,227, an increase of 5.22% which is a larger increase than last time (5.12%). The new deaths for this period were 76,691 which gives a 7-day daily average of 10,956, up from 10,214. The mortality rate is 2.81% (1,544,918/54,943,524), slightly lower than last time (2.89% (1,468,227/50,796,324)). The mortality rate for the week's new deaths is 1.72% (71,501/4,147,200), which is lower than that of the previous period 1.81% (71,501/3,952,426)).

New case rate increases went up for both the US and the world and the rate of increase in new cases over the prior week went up for the US. The death rate increase went up for both and mortality rates for new cases went up for the US. For the US, the R-naught seemed to increase and probably remains well above 1.0, the test positivity rate went up and altho the CV-19 hospitalizations continued to rise, they continue to rise at a slower rate and may be starting to level off.

The fall surge seems to be abating in parts of Europe but cases continue to surge in other parts of Europe (Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus and some smaller countries) and in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Mexico, Canada, Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Japan, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, Kenya, Algeria and Morocco. And cases have surged recently in Russia, Palestine and South Korea.

[rhd]

Here is another very good video from Dr. John Campbell. He spends half of the video talking about the situation in the US (5:50-18:52). He has some sobering projections from a new study:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oFPU628JCs&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

He mentions a U. of Washington study estimates that vaccines will prevent relatively few deaths during the winter. He says if we dont target hi-risk patients it will prevent only about 9,000 deaths by 4/1/21 and only about 23,000 if we do target them, which I expect we will. It says increasing mask-wearing to 95% would save more lives, about 66,000. The study also estimates that the death totals in the US will reach 539,000 by 4/1/21. I hope this projection is too high but the pandemic will not be over by 4/1. The study also estimates that 15% of Americans have CV-19 immunity. That would be about 50 mil., which would be just over 3 times the reported cases. This is actually a lower figure than what I've heard other places.

[Gregg]

I've been thinking of you guys and wondering how you are doing.

Thank you all for the kind words, thoughts, prayers, and well wishes.

Today is the first day that Mrs. Gregg and I can say we are starting to feel better. Not good but it seems that the ship is turning.

We still get exhausted after doing the slightest activity. Taste is back to about 65%. I cough every time I try to speak, but the cough is no longer painful. Our oxygen is a bit low but stable at 95 (looking for 98-99). Below 92 is not good.

Aches and pains are still present but no where near what they were. If we continue on this arc of healing we may be able to put up the Christmas tree this weekend. Then again just writing this makes me feel like I need a nap.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Thank you all for the kind words, thoughts, prayers, and well wishes.

Today is the first day that Mrs. Gregg and I can say we are starting to feel better. Not good but it seems that the ship is turning.

We still get exhausted after doing the slightest activity. Taste is back to about 65%. I cough every time I try to speak, but the cough is no longer painful. Our oxygen is a bit low but stable at 95 (looking for 98-99). Below 92 is not good.

Aches and pains are still present but no where near what they were. If we continue on this arc of healing we may be able to put up the Christmas tree this weekend. Then again just writing this makes me feel like I need a nap.

I am glad things are starting to stabilize and improve. Hope things continue to get better for both of you.

[TranaGreg]

Thank you all for the kind words, thoughts, prayers, and well wishes.

Today is the first day that Mrs. Gregg and I can say we are starting to feel better. Not good but it seems that the ship is turning.

We still get exhausted after doing the slightest activity. Taste is back to about 65%. I cough every time I try to speak, but the cough is no longer painful. Our oxygen is a bit low but stable at 95 (looking for 98-99). Below 92 is not good.

Aches and pains are still present but no where near what they were. If we continue on this arc of healing we may be able to put up the Christmas tree this weekend. Then again just writing this makes me feel like I need a nap.

excellent news. And don't worry, I wouldn't extrapolate - posting on RJ can be seriously taxing for even the most healthy ...

[DMT]

Thank you all for the kind words, thoughts, prayers, and well wishes.

Today is the first day that Mrs. Gregg and I can say we are starting to feel better. Not good but it seems that the ship is turning.

We still get exhausted after doing the slightest activity. Taste is back to about 65%. I cough every time I try to speak, but the cough is no longer painful. Our oxygen is a bit low but stable at 95 (looking for 98-99). Below 92 is not good.

Aches and pains are still present but no where near what they were. If we continue on this arc of healing we may be able to put up the Christmas tree this weekend. Then again just writing this makes me feel like I need a nap.

Glad to hear you're both feeling better, hopefully the improving trend accelerates.

[heyelander]

cripes, glad you are feeling better, but get some more rest!

Thanks for updating, we are all really concerned, but don't do anything that wipes you out.

[Sour Masher]

Glad you and Mrs Gregg are turning the corner. I am sad to learn this hit you both as hard as it has. I hope it is a blip on the radar for you soon.