Corona Virus

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 9/21 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (9/7).

- 7,321,465 cases in the US, up from 7,005,686, an increase of 4.51% which is a larger increase than last time (4.41%). The new cases for this period were 315,779 which gives a 7-day daily average of 45,111, up from 42,236. A comparison w last period's new cases (295,655) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.068, lower than that of the last update (1.184). The current test positivity rate is 4.94%, lower than that of the last update (5.07%) and is below the WHO threshold figure of 5.0%. Currently, there are only 16 states that have R-naught below 1.0 an decrease from the 21 states last update, so the overall US R-naught still must be above 1.0. Georgia has the lowest value w 0.86 and Wyoming has the highest at 1.27.
- 209,454 deaths in the US, up from 204,122, an increase of 2.61% which is a smaller increase than last time (2.82%). The new deaths for this period were 5,332 which gives a 7-day daily average of 762, down from 798. The mortality rate is 3.24% (209,454/6,460,421), slightly lower than last time (3.31% (204,122/6,175,008)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 1.87% (5,332/285.413), about the same as last time (1.86% (5,589/300,713)).
- 33,316,224 cases worldwide, up from 31,243,793, an increase of 6.63% which is a smaller increase than last time (7.01%). The new cases for this period were 2,072,431, which gives a 7-day daily average of 296,061, up from 292,344. A comparison w last period's new cases (2,046,407) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.013, which is lower than last time (1.073).
- 1,003,357 deaths worldwide, up from 965,878, an increase of 3.88% which is the same increase as last time (3.88%). The new deaths for this period were 37,479, which gives a 7-day daily average of 5,354, up from 5,158. The mortality rate is 3.68% (1,003,353/27,289,930), lower than last time (3.80% (965,875/25,396,341)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 1.98% (37,479/1,893,589), slightly lower than that of the previous period (2.00% (36,104/1,801,137)).

New case rate increases went down for both the US and the world. For the US, the overall case rate increase went up. The R-naught seems to have gone up, which is bad, but the test positivity rate went down, which is good.

Cases continue to surge in Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Romania, India, Nepal, the Philippines, Indonesia, Ukraine, Iraq, Israel and Morocco. And cases have surged in recent weeks in Belgium. But case increases have lessened recently in Bolivia. Much of Europe continues to experience a 2nd wave. It appears I was wrong when I said that Europe is handling this pandemic better than the US. It is looking like they're not much better than we are. At the current rate of new cases, India projects to pass the US in total cases by about 10/30.

[rhd]

This video is about a case study that suggests that herd immunity doesnt work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCwG3Vn-p0o&ab_channel=WION

It is about Manaus, Brazil which apparently didnt do a lockdown. It was estimated that 44%-66% of the population got infected, and afterwards initially there was a dramatic drop in cases. But recently there has been a surge in cases. No figures are cited in the video and I didnt read the case study. There is considerable debate about exactly how high a percentage of infections you need to achieve herd immunity. I dont know what to make of this - take it for whatever you think it's worth.

[heyelander]

This video is about a case study that suggests that herd immunity doesnt work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCwG3Vn-p0o&ab_channel=WION

It is about Manaus, Brazil which apparently didnt do a lockdown. It was estimated that 44%-66% of the population got infected, and afterwards initially there was a dramatic drop in cases. But recently there has been a surge in cases. No figures are cited in the video and I didnt read the case study. There is considerable debate about exactly how high a percentage of infections you need to achieve herd immunity. I dont know what to make of this - take it for whatever you think it's worth.

Have there been more studies on re-infection? I believe there was at least 1 confirmed case. How would herd immunity even work, if you can just get it again in 6 months?

[Gregg]

Have there been more studies on re-infection? I believe there was at least 1 confirmed case. How would herd immunity even work, if you can just get it again in 6 months?

I would like to know that too.

Would having survived it make us more or less prone to getting it again?

[rhd]

Have there been more studies on re-infection? I believe there was at least 1 confirmed case. How would herd immunity even work, if you can just get it again in 6 months?

The first case was in Hong Kong, IIRC. There are were at least a couple more cases in Europe. All of the reinfection cases I've heard about were either asymptomatic or mild symptoms. I dont completely understand herd immunity either. But my understanding is that if you've been infected, you probably have long-lasting immunity because even though the antibodies last only for 2-3 months, the T-cells which make the antibodies stay around for many years so during a reinfection the T-cells recognize the virus and immediately make more antibodies to fight it.

[rhd]

I would like to know that too.

Would having survived it make us more or less prone to getting it again?

My understanding is that having survived it would definitely make you much less likely to be seriously affected by the virus again.

I'm sure that I, as well as many others, have been exposed to the virus many times over the past 7 months. But it takes hundreds of viruses, maybe a thousand or more, in order to infect you and even if you're exposed to an infected person, unless you stayed close to that person for an extended period you probably only ingested no more than a few dozen viruses or so. What I dont know is whether my repeated incidental exposures to the virus have given me any immunity to it at all. I would like to take an antibody test to see if I have any, but I wont because there's no legitimate medical reason to and also, even if they would let me take this test despite having no confirmed exposure or symptoms, it would cost me money.

[Sour Masher]

This was an exhaustive study of 38 million articles from Cornell, and the conclusion of the study is that the single greatest driver of COVID misinformation is Donald Trump, in case there was any doubt not only of his false messaging but the reach and power of the POTUS making such false claims: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...GFf?li=BBnbfcL

[heyelander]

Misinformation: hope, potato pahtahto

[Teenwolf]

This was an exhaustive study of 38 million articles from Cornell, and the conclusion of the study is that the single greatest driver of COVID misinformation is Donald Trump, in case there was any doubt not only of his false messaging but the reach and power of the POTUS making such false claims: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...GFf?li=BBnbfcL

We had a massive anti-mask rally up in Quebec recently which was organized by supporters of Q-Anon. We locked our borders to the US and somehow still caught the American's faulty brain disease.

[Gregg]

Not good:

Illinois public health officials Wednesday reported they had logged 2,273 newly diagnosed cases and 35 additional confirmed deaths of people with COVID-19, raising the statewide tally to 293,274 known cases and 8,672 deaths.

[Sour Masher]

Not good:

Illinois public health officials Wednesday reported they had logged 2,273 newly diagnosed cases and 35 additional confirmed deaths of people with COVID-19, raising the statewide tally to 293,274 known cases and 8,672 deaths.

Things seem to be spiking in new areas all over. In my area of upstate NY, we now have more active cases then we ever have had. When the NYC area was being hit really hard, things never got bad here, but now the cases in my county are going up 50% every few days. This could get out of control in a hurry. The weird thing is that the cities in my county that are spiking are the ones that have kept their schools all online, and it does not seem university related. The culprit seems to be the reopening of bars, restaurants, and gyms. My specific small town doesn't have many cases, but if the county numbers get much higher, they will shut all the schools down, which is a bummer. The district I am in only has 2 active cases and the hybrid set up has not let to any new cases so far. But the overall numbers are rising super fast for the county.

[Sour Masher]

We had a massive anti-mask rally up in Quebec recently which was organized by supporters of Q-Anon. We locked our borders to the US and somehow still caught the American's faulty brain disease.

Stupidity knows no borders. It is really perplexing that local politically motivated conspiracies gain traction elsewhere, though.

[revo]

We had a massive anti-mask rally up in Quebec recently which was organized by supporters of Q-Anon. We locked our borders to the US and somehow still caught the American's faulty brain disease.

That's more contagious than covid!

[Teenwolf]

Stupidity knows no borders. It is really perplexing that local politically motivated conspiracies gain traction elsewhere, though.

Interestingly, our conservative politicians model themselves after Trump, and Bolsonaro, and Boris Johnson, all conservatives who chose to portray strength by diminishing the threat of Covid, all ended up contracting Covid and spreading it to others. Our newest Conservative party leader, Erin O'Toole recently got Covid, and there were numerous public events held with no adherence to safety protocol.

Conservatives value looking strong over protecting lives. Funny how narrow "pro life" advocacy is when you get down to it. Just the babies, rape babies, incest babies, babies that endanger the life of the mother... save the babies. It has the same roots as Qanon, where the claim is children being killed in ritual sacrifice by Democrats and/or Oprah drinking their blood to stay young... so if you are the type of person who just wants to feel like you're fighting for defenseless children, your delusion increases to the point you can convince yourself "maybe not everything they believe is true, but if they're fighting to protect children, I support them." 41% of Republicans now claim some belief or support for the Qanon conspiracies, and that's disturbing. If Trump dies from Covid, they will take over the party.

[nullnor]

unfortunately leaders never die in a pandemic Bolsonaro, Johnson, Trump, it's like the game of thrones during the battle of blackwater bay- " When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.” This is truly a perfect Sansa quote that shows just how important her family is to her. "The worst ones always live."