Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

Using the stats from my last update 6 days ago, the "mortality" rate in the US was 1.2% for the prior week. This week's rate so far is 1.3%. So the rate is not trending up, at least not rt now. I think future rates will stay about the same as now because it seems to be mostly younger people getting infected now who dont die at the rate of the very elderly who were a larger portion of the infected during the first wave.

That's what I'm questioning. I don't think that math is accurate because the lag time from diagnosis to death seems longer than we had thought.

Dividing this week's deaths by this week's cases doesn't work.

[rhd]

That's what I'm questioning. I don't think that math is accurate because the lag time from diagnosis to death seems longer than we had thought.

Dividing this week's deaths by this week's cases doesn't work.

OK, we'll see. This is the first pandemic we've been thru and there's been so much about it that was unanticipated. IIRC, the info I saw before said that it's an average of 17 days to recovery and about 21 days to death. Havent seen any info about this lately.

[Kevin Seitzer]

OK, we'll see. This is the first pandemic we've been thru and there's been so much about it that was unanticipated. IIRC, the info I saw before said that it's an average of 17 days to recovery and about 21 days to death. Havent seen any info about this lately.

I'm worried that the lag time has gone up. But even if it hasn't, 5805 deaths this past week, divided by 190256 new cases in the week period 21 days prior to that, is a mortality rate of 2.7% for the United States. It's only when you divide by this week's new cases (410283) that you get to 1.4% mortality, and that's not a useful way to think about the question.

[rhd]

I'm worried that the lag time has gone up. But even if it hasn't, 5805 deaths this past week, divided by 190256 new cases in the week period 21 days prior to that, is a mortality rate of 2.7% for the United States. It's only when you divide by this week's new cases (410283) that you get to 1.4% mortality, and that's not a useful way to think about the question.

Good point. I'll try to add this stat to my updates.

[DMT]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1282385601967333376?s=09

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 7/6 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Pursuant to a comment from KS, from now on I will use a different method for figuring the mortality rate. According to the CDC, the average time between onset of symptoms and the reporting of death is about 22 days so I will use the case figures from 3 weeks ago and divide the current death total into that. That should give a more realistic figure. I will also start giving the current week's mortality rate by taking the week's increase in cases from 3 weeks ago and divide the current week's death total into that. That will give an idea of whether the mortality rate is headed up or down.

- 3,414,105 cases in US, up from 2,983,155, an increase of 14.45% which is a larger increase than last time (13.12%). The new cases for this period were 430,950. A comparison w last period's new cases (345,975) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.246, which is slightly higher than that of the last update (1.234). Things are not getting better. A month ago, it was looking like this pandemic might be mostly over in the US by September but now I think we're looking at more like December.
- 137,787 deaths in US, up from 132,571, an increase of 3.93% which is a larger increase than last time (3.22%). Using the improved way of figuring the mortality rate, the mortality rate is 5.85% (137,787/2,356,715), lower than for the previous period (6.13% - 132,571/2,162,406). So, even using the new method the rate is still going down. The rate for the week's new deaths is 2.68% (5,216/194,309), almost exactly the same as that for the previous period (2.67% - 4,133/154,875).
- 13,009,990 cases worldwide, up from 11,533,374, an increase of 12.80% which is about the same as last time (12.85%). The new cases for this period were 1,476,616. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,312,987) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.125, which is higher than last time (1.094). This rate remains well above 1.00.
- 572,158 deaths worldwide, up from 537,265, an increase of 6.49% which is about the same as last time (6.42%). Using the improved way of figuring the mortality rate, the mortality rate is 6.34% (572,158/9,019,955), lower than for the previous period (6.74% - 537,265/7,967,177). So, even using the new method the rate is still going down. The rate for the week's new deaths is 3.31% (34,893/1,052,778), lower than last for the previous period (3.58% - 32,393/903,715).

Rates of increase were smaller than last time for the world and larger for the US. New case rates for both the world and the US remain well above 1.00. Cases continue to surge in Russia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and South Africa and cases have surged recently also in Bolivia.

[rhd]

More bad news about CV-19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AEWFgzYOdI

The video says a study found that CV19 immunity might only last for a few weeks. I dont know virology but wouldnt this suggest that it may be even harder to develop an effective vaccine?

[Sour Masher]

More bad news about CV-19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AEWFgzYOdI

The video says a study found that CV19 immunity might only last for a few weeks. I dont know virology but wouldnt this suggest that it may be even harder to develop an effective vaccine?

I don't think we have enough data yet to say, but the possibility that this disease is like the flu and we have to develop a new vaccine every year for it is there. It would mean that we won't be able to get rid of this thing, just engage in behaviors that tamp it down each year, depending on the number of people willing to be vaccinated. It also means we will simply have to live with this thing, as lock downs for life are not practical. But the silver lining could be that the mortality rate falls down to the level of the flu as well, since new viruses generally have a higher mortality rate than that which the settle into if they stick around. So, the hope would be that if this thing sticks around like flu and cold viruses, it would end up as not too much more deadly.

I have the fantasy that if every living soul on the planet began preparing now, at some point, we could all go into a total quarantine for like a month, and when we emerge, there would be no COVID, no flu, no common cold viruses. Of course, that could never happen, any effort to do it would fail, because some people somewhere would break quarantine. But from a logical standpoint, the loss in productivity of that month would be made up quickly as we'd be in a world without those illnesses, at least until another virus jumped.

[chancellor]

Official Lancet retraction on their faulty hydroxychloroquine study:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31528-2/fulltext

Between the disasterous paper they published - and later retracted - that greatly grew the anti-vaxxer movement and this fiasco, one does wonder about the peer-reviewing capability of The Lancet.

[GwynnInTheHall]

And....Cali is shutting back down, no more Gyms, salons, Bars, casinos, inside dining (still avail on patios), churches--Wear a Damn Mask and we'd be better off--but No...If they'd start citing (make the fines $1000 plus that increase incrementally for each subsequent violation) individuals for defying the mask mandates and really hammer Businesses that don't comply and FIRE public officials who refuse to enforce--we might get this ship righted before we all fucking drown.

[DMT]

I truly feel sorry for anyone forced to play Russian roulette with their children in the next month.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

Importantly, on May 17 in Israel it appeared the virus not only was under control, but defeated. Israel reported only 10 new cases of COVID-19 in the entire country that day. In the U.S., the debate often is about reopening schools where the disease is not only not in decline, but surging.

Then, Levine says, “contrary to our advice, the government decided to open the entire system all at once on May 17. What happened next was entirely predictable.”

On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Just in the first two weeks of July, 393 kindergartens and schools open for summer programs have been shuttered due to cases of COVID-19.

[DMT]

And seriously the argument for opening schools here sounds absurd.

[Sour Masher]

I truly feel sorry for anyone forced to play Russian roulette with their children in the next month.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israel...lockdown-gains

It needs to be figured out. Hong Kong has taken pretty far reaching measures to ensure safety, and after Hong Kong got their numbers down, they reopened until some cases popped up. They had to close the term a week early, but at least they got some in-person schooling in this summer. Some of the precautions they took are a real stretch here, and I see no talk of funding to provide what they provided, but I am hoping this recent wave wakes people up to the need for such measures--whatever it takes, it needs to be done, and resources are needed to do it in the safest way possible. We can't have kids across the country not going to school for what may be several years. Even if areas need to start and stop and start again as we fight this thing, as Hong Kong had to do, the effort needs to be made to get kids in schools. Even if it is just a week here and there, it is better than nothing for the kids.

And based on the data, I don't see it as playing Russian Roulette with the kids, but their parents and grandparents. Unlike any other respiratory illness I know of, this thing infects kids less and affects them less than any other group. To date, they represent 22% of our population, but only 2% of our cases. That may be because schools were shut down, but several studies so far have shown that kids not only get less sick they get sick less with COVID-19. Risk is still there, but it has to be weighed against the huge negative affect years of missing school will have on a generation of students.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...sed-them-again

[Sour Masher]

And seriously the argument for opening schools here sounds absurd.

Unilateral decisions from the federal government to open everything everywhere with little to no planning or safety measures is absurd. Doing whatever must be done to get as many kids, at least elementary school kids, in-person as much as possible isn't absurd. If there are locations with little to no cases, whenever that happens, with proper testing and safety procedures in place, every day that a young kid can be educated and socialized, the better. Shutting down everything and putting millions of 5-10 year olds all online for years would be a disaster not only to our economy but to their development. These elementary aged kids need some interaction and socialization, at the very least. If that means just a couple of day a week in classes half their original size, or less, and even if that comes and goes throughout the year, it is still worth the effort.

[Sour Masher]

And all of the risk would be lower if we as a society acted more like Hong Kong outside of schools. They all wear masks. They are all careful. You don't see COVID parties there and people acting like idiots every single day.