Corona Virus

[chancellor]

I think it is just as much the attitude of " government ain't telling me what to do!"

Given how poorly state and federal government has performed, I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

Moreover, seemingly every public health official and epidemiologist has smoked what shreds of their credibility remained with their response to the protests and riots. Not that I blame them - their careers would assuredly been buried under charges of racism and worse - but it’s patently apparent to anyone watching that their views of science only extend as far as their political views and/or career aspirations.

[Gregg]

Absolutely, in everything I've studies and read Gambling is close to and is predicted to overtake substances ad the leading addiction.

It's easier to hide from friends and family so you can get in deep without raising early alarms like substances and it's easier to self justify as a win here or there can obscure the damage being done.

Gambling starts as a mental/phycological issue that can in some cases, bring about physical health issues--Substances affect both from beginning to end and so the destruction/outward issues are quick to manifest and allow those addicts to get help sooner--Gamblers usually wait much longer to seek/get help.

Now not every person who gambles is going to become an addict and there's different tiers of the addiction/problem so a mild addiction isn't going to be particularly destructive, kind of like occasional substance use--Thing is, Most Problem Gamblers/Addicts have a dual addiction, usually coupling with substance/alcohol which can really exacerbate both additions.

Yes that would be me.

It is my understanding that people with gambling addictions activate the same brain pathways as cocaine and alcohol. It was also my experience before this study came out.

[revo]

Given how poorly state and federal government has performed, I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

I guess "State's Rights" is the latest thing we can scratch from the GOP playbook!

[GwynnInTheHall]

Yes that would be me.

It is my understanding that people with gambling addictions activate the same brain pathways as cocaine and alcohol. It was also my experience before this study came out.

Correct in a sense, repetitive behavior created pathways in the brain, kind of like small erosion troughs that the electrical impulses flow through (Not very scientific explanation, but I hope you get my drift) When you do something over and over, your brain develops a physical pathway in the brain so you sometimes repeat behaviors without really thinking about it--Have you ever been driving home from work like you have everyday and you know that today--you're supposed to go to the store first, but you still get off at the exit which takes you home like normal? That is your neural net following a pathway you've created in your brain.

With an addict, you do the same thing--your repetitive choices to Gamble/Use creates these pathways--it gets to the point where you can say to yourself--I know this is a bad choice, I know this will lead to trouble, I know this might not end well for me or those I love--But you STILL choose to proceed with the bad choice, you kick yourself the entire time, but again, you've been making that choice so often your brain just leads you there. With substances there's an additional physiological component I'm not entirely familiar with so won't speak to.

It's hard to stop, but entirely possible. It's easier if you have a support subsystem of family and friends as they, if they can approach it as a mental health condition that needs to be treated rather than some moral deficiency, can be a huge positive force in helping find your way out of addiction and retraining your brain to make different choices.

I wish you the best brother, I know it's not easy, but it is possible.


peace.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Now to Vegas/Gambling and Covid-19

So Swamp.

First you have to understand Vegas in it's entirety. Vegas is the APEX of addiction and addictive behaviors--Any addiction you can think of, Vegas exists to provide for/to you. Sex, Gambling, Drugs, Alcohol, Food, Shopping--It's an Orgy of Addiction and actively promotes/glamorizes addictive behavior. Vegas is also all about making money so the concern for the health of their patrons only extends as far as they're forced to go. Now some individual casinos might take a more enlightened approach (like the Wynn is doing) but others won't care and will get away with as much pushing of the envelope as possible.

Almost every aspect of Vegas will be tested in trying to reopen and stay Covid compliant. Cash, Chips, Cards, food service, Cocktail service, the pools, the shows, strip clubs (and other related activities) mass transit, bathrooms--it's just not designed for social distancing--it's designed to pack as many people in and get them all excited about what they're doing to the point they lose track of time and the money they're handing over. But say they get some of these issues handled in a meaningful way--this would only work if Vegas was populated by locals, whom trust me--are a large portion of casino Customers--Vegas residents for the most part are the workforce at these casinos and some of their best customers (gamblers). BUT the city exists to bring in people from all over the world--How can you track people who are in Vegas for a visit? Where are they from and where have they been?

This is where Gambling as a compulsion/addiction starts driving the bus--As we've seen, with just the Locals, casinos/poker rooms are loaded with people who just have to get out for a drink or a social snort or to turn a meaningful card. Almost 3% of all gamblers are compulsive/addictive with another 12% classified as Problem Gambles--That's 15% of all people who gamble world wide just itching to get back to Vegas for a fix. This doesn't even take into account people who just might be tired of sitting at home and are looking for a vegas day trip or weekend distraction which has nothing to do with the Addicts, BUT they will be affected by the Addicts as those who are sitting at tables right now are stirring up the Covid petri dish. They don't care about that stuff, they're conditioned to make bad decisions, so what's one more.

My daughters still live In vegas, but aren't gamblers and work off strip as food servers (Outback Steakhouse!) when they're not in school and so far, their management seems committed to the health of their staff. I also have many friends who still live/work there and though none of them are playing yet--they will be back to work soon dealing, supervising in poker rooms and right in the middle of things. I worry for these guys.

I really think that no matter how responsibly they approach re-opening, Vegas is going to be in a very bad place, Covid-wise, come September/October. This is of course if you predicate your beliefs on the current Covid models being used.

I hope this wasn't too rambling and answered your questions.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Given how poorly state and federal government has performed, I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

Moreover, seemingly every public health official and epidemiologist has smoked what shreds of their credibility remained with their response to the protests and riots. Not that I blame them - their careers would assuredly been buried under charges of racism and worse - but it’s patently apparent to anyone watching that their views of science only extend as far as their political views and/or career aspirations.

I would say this--I can see the conflicting messages from both sides--the Covid believers are also those protesting right now so they're acting contrary to what they were two weeks ago, that includes the scientific community who have to their credit, maintained that we should social distance throughout, but that's hard to do actually accomplish given how protests actually work.

On the counter, those who were protesting Covid regulations are now backing the Govt (which they were protesting) and regulations.


I see it all in some on both sides as a morality of convenience, but that's not really a surprise is it?

As to the doctors, scientists et al. They are, to my knowledge, saying the same thing about these protests/protestors as they did the don't Tread On Me protests. They've warned that it's not safe and might have bad consequences regarding another covid spike. But I could be wrong on that--I have really looked that far into equitable statements to both groups.

Anyhow, I would love to join the protests, but as an at risk person with a wife and kids to think about--I'll just have to do my part from home until the all clear is given.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Here's an article from a guy I know in Vegas:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/poker/las-vegas-poker-games-return-an-inside-look-2047289/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push_notification

Not great, but it gives you some insight into what the locals are thinking/up to.

It's obviously not about anything but Gambling.

[swampdragon]

Here's an article from a guy I know in Vegas:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/poker/las-vegas-poker-games-return-an-inside-look-2047289/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push_notification

Not great, but it gives you some insight into what the locals are thinking/up to.

It's obviously not about anything but Gambling.

thanks for the posts - I had pretty much guessed all that but thanks for accurately (and first hand) explaining it.

[revo]

So GITH, why limits on the number of poker players, but yet players at the craps table can hang all over each other?

[GwynnInTheHall]

So GITH, why limits on the number of poker players, but yet players at the craps table can hang all over each other?

Nevada gaming has regulations that state only six at a craps table I don't know if they are enforcing it but they should be. They are supposed to be limiting all games.

[revo]

Sweden continues to get battered for its handling of the virus, as their chief epidemiologist admitted that “mistakes were made” and other countries in the EU are forbidding Swedes from traveling there due to their country's high infection rate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/sweden-s-pm-is-rebuked-as-covid-deaths-ignite-political-anger

[The Feral Slasher]

Given how poorly state and federal government has performed, I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

Moreover, seemingly every public health official and epidemiologist has smoked what shreds of their credibility remained with their response to the protests and riots. Not that I blame them - their careers would assuredly been buried under charges of racism and worse - but it’s patently apparent to anyone watching that their views of science only extend as far as their political views and/or career aspirations.

I dont disagree that state and federal governments have reacted poorly. That doesn't mean it is a good idea to ignore science and math in protest.

[nullnor]

I think I found something indicating the furin cleavage similar to C-19 can develop naturally in bats. a virus they discovered last year called RmYN02. the article is actually kind of informative in the sense that C-19 get's stronger during infection because the body will produce more furin the more the disease progresses which the virus uses to infect even more. it's a self reinforcing system. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...=relatedmanual The Coronavirus Has A Mysterious “Loop” That Lets It Quickly Attack Human Lungs. Here’s How It Works. although in the article 'loop' means the physical appearance. here's the paper on RmYN02 it's more technical information than I can understand, it'll take a while to figure out. https://www.cell.com/current-biology...822(20)30662-X A Novel Bat Coronavirus Closely Related to SARS-CoV-2 Contains Natural Insertions at the S1/S2 Cleavage Site of the Spike Protein

SARS-CoV-2 is characterized by a four-amino-acid insertion at the junction of S1 and S2, not observed in other lineage B beta-CoVs. This insertion, which represents a poly-basic (furin) cleavage site, is unique to SARS-CoV-2 and is present in all SARS-CoV-2 sequenced so far. The insertion of three residues, PAA, at the junction of S1 and S2 in RmYN02 is therefore of major importance. Although the inserted residues (and hence nucleotides) are not the same as those in RmYN02, and hence are indicative of an independent insertion event, that they are presented in wildlife (bats) strongly suggests that they are of natural origin and have likely been acquired by recombination. As such, these data are strongly suggestive of a natural zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2.

it doesn't quite seem to prove it is or isn't, but it's a step towards an answer.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 6/1 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago:

- 2,007,531 cases in US, up from 1,837,578, an increase of 9.25% which is a larger increase than last time (8.96%). The new cases for this period were 169,953. A comparison w last period's new cases (137,046) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.240, which is much higher than that of the last update (0.945). The increase in # of deaths (below) got smaller so I dont know whether this represents the beginning of a 2nd wave or not. The testing rate in my state, Maryland, has increased significantly lately so the US testing rate might have gone up, also. At the time of this post, I could not find the testing rates over time that included this past week.
- 112,471 deaths in US, up from 106,198, an increase of 5.91% which is a much smaller increase than last time (6.95%). The US mortality rate is now 5.60, lower than last time (5.78%).
- 7,063,462 cases worldwide, up from 6,240,493, an increase of 13.19% which is smaller than last time (13.99%). At the current rate of increase, the world projects to hit 10,000,000 cases by about June 28. The new cases for this period were 822,969. A comparison w last period's new cases (766,068) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.074, which is smaller than last time (1.157). This rate remains well above 1.00.
- 406,448 deaths worldwide, up from 374,264, an increase of 8.60% which is larger than last time (7.87%). At the current rate of increase, the world projects to hit 500,000 deaths by about June 26. The world mortality rate is 5.75%, which is lower than last time (6.00%).
- 218 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 2 others (North Korea, Turkmenistan). There are only 10 countries, all of which are South Pacific Island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected cases: Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Uganda having the most cases w no reported deaths, 686.

Case rates of increase were smaller than last time for the world but larger for the US, whereas for the death rates the opposite was true. Cases continue to surge in Russia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Mexico, the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and South Africa. The curves have flattened considerably in most of Western Europe, while in the US the increases have stabilized but havent really flattened yet.

I've been very busy lately and havent read this thread in almost a week. There's at least one post that I havent responded to and I will do that as soon as I can. There are a lot of other things that I want to say also.

[rhd]

That's a strange note in my opinion. You are only checking credibility because of concerns of others? Aren't you interested yourself in whether it is credible? Of note, like you said, Sky News has been compared to Fox News, I'd want to see this on a more reliable format before even giving it the light of day.

Nothing strange about it. I'm quite capable of evaluating the credibility of sources. And there are many references to videos and articles in this forum and very little "fact-checking" is done or requested. But in a previous post of mine, someone challenged the credibility of my source, so I decided to do a brief investigation this time. Simple as that. And that brief investigation showed the source to be credible and factual in their reporting.

Wait, why is that? There have been numerous experts come out confirming that based on the virus itself it came from nature and not a lab. Why is it clear that they are not credible exactly?

Again, very simple. The authorities saying that it was impossible for the virus to have come from a lab are in effect saying that it is impossible to reach any other valid scientific conclusion. Yet many other authorities from all over the world, including one of the discoverers of the HIV virus, that are not connected to each other have reached other scientific conclusions. I cant evaluate who's right and who's wrong because I'm not a virologist. But obviously different scientists are reaching different conclusions. It seems very arrogant, dogmatic and unscientific to say that only one valid conclusion can be reached when other scientists have already reached different conclusions, or at least potentially different conclusions.

Note that my statement was only that it could have escaped from a lab. I didnt say in the above post that it could have been genetically engineered in a lab, although that still seems possible, also. It could be naturally-occurring in some animal(s), like bats. They were experimenting w these bats at the Wuhan lab(s) (there were 2 labs and it's difficult to tell which one people are talking about) and the virus could have accidentally escaped w/o being intentionally modified. How can any credible person possibly say that this would have been impossible?

Since my above post, I saw another video where scientists postulated that the virus came from a lab. I cant find it now (some researchers in Europe, I think). But in looking for that video, I found this article:

https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-case-is-building-that-covid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

From the article:
The fourth virologist interviewed was Nikolai Petrovsky of Flinders University. Petrovsky first addressed the question of whether the natural zoonosis pathway was viable. He told the Media Centre:

“no natural virus matching to COVID-19 has been found in nature despite an intensive search to find its origins.”

That is to say, the idea of an animal intermediate is speculation. Indeed, no credible viral or animal host intermediaries, either in the form of a confirmed animal host or a plausible virus intermediate, has to-date emerged to explain the natural zoonotic transfer of Sars-CoV-2 to humans (e.g. Zhan et al., 2020).

In addition to Petrovsky’s point, there are two further difficulties with the natural zoonotic transfer thesis (apart from the weak epidemiological association between early cases and the Huanan “wet” market).

The first is that researchers from the Wuhan lab travelled to caves in Yunnan (1,500 Km away) to find horseshoe bats containing SARS-like coronaviruses. To-date, the closest living relative of Sars-CoV-2 yet found comes from Yunnan (Ge et al., 2016). Why would an outbreak of a bat virus therefore occur in Wuhan? ... Wuhan, in short, is a rather unlikely epicentre for a natural zoonotic transfer. In contrast, to suspect that Sars-CoV-2 might have come from the WIV (Wuhan Institute of Virology) is both reasonable and obvious.

Petrovsky goes on to suggest that the virus may have gotten modified in the lab:

“Take a bat coronavirus that is not infectious to humans, and force its selection by culturing it with cells that express human ACE2 receptor, such cells having been created many years ago to culture SARS coronaviruses and you can force the bat virus to adapt to infect human cells via mutations in its spike protein, which would have the effect of increasing the strength of its binding to human ACE2, and inevitably reducing the strength of its binding to bat ACE2.

Viruses in prolonged culture will also develop other random mutations that do not affect its function. The result of these experiments is a virus that is highly virulent in humans but is sufficiently different that it no longer resembles the original bat virus. Because the mutations are acquired randomly by selection there is no signature of a human gene jockey, but this is clearly a virus still created by human intervention.”

So, it didnt necessarily get engineered by humans but it still could have been modified in the lab.

The article goes on to point out other things, such as there were significant safety and security concerns w the Wuhan lab(s), and states "For all these reasons, a lab escape is by far the leading hypothesis to explain the origins of Sars-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The sheer proximity of the WIV and WCDCP (Wuhan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control) labs to the outbreak and the nature of their work represents evidence that can hardly be ignored. The long international history of lab escapes and the biosafety concerns from all directions about the labs in Wuhan greatly strengthen the case. Especially since evidence for the alternative hypothesis, in the form of a link to wild animal exposure or the wildlife trade, remains extremely weak, being based primarily on analogy with SARS one". This reflects my own previous thoughts. Those that say the virus didnt come from a lab have no theory on where exactly it did come from, not even the animal it jumped to humans from. As I said already, this theory is far from conclusive but it appears to be the best one we have rt now and it is consistent w the facts that we do know.