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  • #1636
    Originally posted by nots View Post
    Just a follow up: it’s been 3 days since Oahu had a recorded case and the entire state has had less than 100 hospitalizations collectively. Given they are a crossroads for traffic coming from both NA and Asia, this makes little sense.
    American Samoa hasn't even had ONE case of the 55K who live there.

    I'm sure there's a small town rural America who's tiny population has been ravaged.

    Nature isn't always equitable.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

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    • #1637
      Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
      American Samoa hasn't even had ONE case of the 55K who live there.

      I'm sure there's a small town rural America who's tiny population has been ravaged.

      Nature isn't always equitable.
      But Oahu has 1M people (plus tourists in all of Feb and March) almost all located densely along the southern part of the island. That, coupled with it being one of the oldest populations in the country (3rd I think, someone check me on that) make it seem like it would be a hotspot, not the ‘coolest’ city in the country.

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      • #1638
        No doubt Oahu is an outlier and hopefully they're actively figuring out why.
        If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
        - Terence McKenna

        Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

        How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

        Comment

        • #1639
          Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
          American Samoa hasn't even had ONE case of the 55K who live there.

          I'm sure there's a small town rural America who's tiny population has been ravaged.

          Nature isn't always equitable.
          Another parallel w the 1918 pandemic: Amer. Samoa back then also was one of the few places that didn't have a case.

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          • #1640
            Originally posted by DMT View Post
            No doubt Oahu is an outlier and hopefully they're actively figuring out why.
            Isn't an island the easiest to effectively quarantine from the outside?

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            • #1641
              Originally posted by Ken View Post
              Isn't an island the easiest to effectively quarantine from the outside?
              Yes, but did they immediately do that? It doesn't seem like they did.
              If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
              - Terence McKenna

              Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

              How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

              Comment

              • #1642
                https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=19


                I don't know how to embed a tweet.
                If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                - Terence McKenna

                Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                Comment

                • #1643
                  Originally posted by DMT View Post
                  Yes, but did they immediately do that? It doesn't seem like they did.
                  Then what is the prevailing hypothesis right now? I don't see a reason why they'd be immune to this.

                  Comment

                  • #1644
                    Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                    I just looked it up and saw the new data that shows the extend of the mutations. Well, shit. That sucks. That makes it more likely that we are looking at a vaccine similar to our annual flu vaccine, one that only protects us from about half the mutations, and we need to get annual shots. My understanding is that is the worst case, though. This isn't like HIV. But that is still really depressing. But it also means say goodbye to herd immunity for this. Damn. If this is true, I guess say hello to COVID-19 being our new reality, just like with colds and flus. I hope the mortality rate falls to their levels as we adapt to this new pathogen.
                    Looking up mutations more, I'm reading some things that give me hope. 1. The number of mutations is a function of a high infection rate, not a function of a fast mutation rate. 2. Mutations are more likely to lead to less deadly strains, not more deadly, as less deadly strains will spread to more people than deadly ones. So, that points to the idea that eventually this thing's mortality rate will fall, even if the vaccines we produce are not as effective as we hope. There are two fronts to fight this on--decreasing infection rates, which seems awfully tough right now given the R rate of over 3, and decreasing mortality. I'm more hopeful of our efforts on the latter. Antivirals drugs will be developed. We are throwing tons of money at this and history tells us when we focus on a problem like this enough, we get stuff done. Look what we have been able to do with other vaccines like for the measles. The vaccine alone didn't end it, but it sure helped. It dropped the mortality rate by about 75%.

                    It is looking like a vaccine won't be a cure all on its own. But it is just one front we are fighting this on. Reducing the infection rate and the mortality rate will be a long, multi-pronged battle, but I am confident we will win the fight eventually. Even then, it may be something we have to deal with to an extent, long term, but eventually, I think the worst case there is it becomes like other cold viruses and isn't as deadly, because of the interventions we implement and the natural evolution of the virus and ourselves.

                    Comment

                    • #1645
                      Originally posted by DMT View Post
                      Yes, but did they immediately do that? It doesn't seem like they did.
                      Not immediately but early-ish. On March 23, They adopted a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all visitors, even between neighbor islands. It effectively cut visitors from 30,000per day in April 2019 to less than 200 per day this April. But as Chance noted before, they were still accepting flights from China (and Japan and Korea) well into March with no quarantine. Further study is needed as to why they have been very effective at controlling this better than almost anyone else.

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                      • #1646
                        Why Some People Get Sicker Than Others
                        https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-immune-response/610228/
                        COVID-19 is proving to be a disease of the immune system. This could, in theory, be controlled.


                        “There’s a big difference in how people handle this virus,” says Robert Murphy, a professor of medicine and the director of the Center for Global Communicable Diseases at Northwestern University. “It’s very unusual. None of this variability really fits with any other diseases we’re used to dealing with.”
                        If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                        - Terence McKenna

                        Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                        How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                        Comment

                        • #1647
                          A recent sampling of 3k people in NY showed 13.9% of people had antibodies. They got samples from people shopping, so it is possible it isn't an accurate sampling, because some people are staying in and not going out. But that is still a lot higher than some other reports. Of course, NY has been hardest hit by this, so it makes sense it would be higher than other places. Still, it provides support that more of us have had this than many realize, and if that is true, it means the mortality rate is lower than some of us fear.

                          https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...bZG?li=BBnb7Kz

                          Comment

                          • #1648
                            Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                            A recent sampling of 3k people in NY showed 13.9% of people had antibodies. They got samples from people shopping, so it is possible it isn't an accurate sampling, because some people are staying in and not going out. But that is still a lot higher than some other reports. Of course, NY has been hardest hit by this, so it makes sense it would be higher than other places. Still, it provides support that more of us have had this than many realize, and if that is true, it means the mortality rate is lower than some of us fear.

                            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...bZG?li=BBnb7Kz
                            New York state case rate is 1.36% currently. I don't know what it is in the places where they sampled, or what it was at the time they sampled.
                            "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

                            Comment

                            • #1649
                              Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
                              New York state case rate is 1.36% currently. I don't know what it is in the places where they sampled, or what it was at the time they sampled.
                              Where does that data come from? How can it be so precise with incomplete antibody testing, and with the reality that we do not know how many people get this and do not produce sufficient antibodies to be picked up in testing? Or have both of those things been worked out?

                              Comment

                              • #1650
                                Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                                Where does that data come from? How can it be so precise with incomplete antibody testing, and with the reality that we do not know how many people get this and do not produce sufficient antibodies to be picked up in testing? Or have both of those things been worked out?
                                The case rate, as in the number of positive tests recorded by the NY Department of Health, divided by the population of the state.
                                "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

                                Comment

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