Corona Virus

[DMT]

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/

The U.S. did almost 25 times as many tests on April 15 as on March 15, yet both the daily positive rate and the overall positive rate went up in that month. If the U.S. were a jar of 330 million jelly beans, then over the course of the outbreak, the health-care system has reached in with a bigger and bigger scoop. But every day, 20 percent of the beans it pulls out are positive for COVID-19. If the outbreak were indeed under control, then we would expect more testing—that is, a larger scoop—to yield a smaller and smaller proportion of positives. So far, that hasn't happened.

But there is another way to interpret the decline in new cases: The growth in the number of new tests completed per day has also plateaued. Since April 1, the country has tested roughly 145,000 people every day with no steady upward trajectory. The growth in the number of new cases per day, and the growth in the number of new tests per day, are very tightly correlated.

[rhd]

Vid referring to an article that estimates that the # of CV-19 cases is about 2.9 mil just outside Wuhan. The estimate is based on a low estimate of the number of people that left Wuhan before the lockdown (est. 1.2 mil) and on infection rates. Some say that as many as 5 mil people left Wuhan. That's just outside Wuhan. The number of deaths from CV-19 inside Wuhan is estimated to be at least 40,000 based on the # of cremation urns released during the lockdown period and the normal death rates in Wuhan. Based on the current nationwide mortality rate of 4.06%, this would mean at least 1 mil cases inside Wuhan for a total of at least 3.9 mil for the entire country, which is almost 6 times the # of reported US cases. China's reported # of cases is only 82,367, so they've only underreported by a factor of at least 47 times. The video contains a lot of other topics, including a very disturbing one about child trafficking but the part about the estimated cases is from 9:03-11.58:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P09yrzVtnvY

BTW, China has locked down Wuhan for a 2nd time now. Those who work in other regions were allowed to leave but everyone else is barred from leaving. One of the new Chinese hot spots is a town on the Russian border where a bunch of residents brought the virus back from Russia, another country that is apparently vastly underreporting its CV-19 cases. Yet China and the WHO want the world to believe that China has done a great job handling the pandemic and has had it under control for a while now.

[Sour Masher]

Vid referring to an article that estimates that the # of CV-19 cases is about 2.9 mil just outside Wuhan. The estimate is based on a low estimate of the number of people that left Wuhan before the lockdown (est. 1.2 mil) and on infection rates. Some say that as many as 5 mil people left Wuhan. That's just outside Wuhan. The number of deaths from CV-19 inside Wuhan is estimated to be at least 40,000 based on the # of cremation urns released during the lockdown period and the normal death rates in Wuhan. Based on the current nationwide mortality rate of 4.06%, this would mean at least 1 mil cases inside Wuhan for a total of at least 3.9 mil for the entire country, which is almost 6 times the # of reported US cases. China's reported # of cases is only 82,367, so they've only underreported by a factor of at least 47 times. The video contains a lot of other topics, including a very disturbing one about child trafficking but the part about the estimated cases is from 9:03-11.58:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P09yrzVtnvY

BTW, China has locked down Wuhan for a 2nd time now. Those who work in other regions were allowed to leave but everyone else is barred from leaving. One of the new Chinese hot spots is a town on the Russian border where a bunch of residents brought the virus back from Russia, another country that is apparently vastly underreporting its CV-19 cases. Yet China and the WHO want the world to believe that China has done a great job handling the pandemic and has had it under control for a while now.

You seem to be increasingly relying on any source that verifies the narrative you seem to have come to accept, which is that China knowingly unleashed this upon the world, and with the help of the WHO, covered things up, ensuring its spread. Looking for any source that confirms one's argument is a dangerous road to travel. It leads you to places like Epoch Times, a source that lacks credibility, to put it mildly. This is a source with whacky spiritual roots, a far right agenda, and an unabashedly pro-Trump editorial slant, including pushing the nonsense Qanon conspiracy, among other completely unfounded conspiracy theories.

I won't argue against the possibility that China is lying about a lot of things, as I am sure they are, and presented with credible information, I am willing to be persuaded they are capable of anything, but the video you link to here completely lacks credibility and only serves to weaken any serious arguments related to China, what they knew or did, and what their agenda might be.

[rhd]

You seem to be increasingly relying on any source that verifies the narrative you seem to have come to accept, which is that China knowingly unleashed this upon the world, and with the help of the WHO, covered things up, ensuring its spread. Looking for any source that confirms one's argument is a dangerous road to travel. It leads you to places like Epoch Times, a source that lacks credibility, to put it mildly. This is a source with whacky spiritual roots, a far right agenda, and an unabashedly pro-Trump editorial slant, including pushing the nonsense Qanon conspiracy, among other completely unfounded conspiracy theories.

I won't argue against the possibility that China is lying about a lot of things, as I am sure they are, and presented with credible information, I am willing to be persuaded they are capable of anything, but the video you link to here completely lacks credibility and only serves to weaken any serious arguments related to China, what they knew or did, and what their agenda might be.

Forgive me if this seems a bit strong. Usually, I try to be somewhat soft-spoken.

If there's any narrative going on in this thread it's certainly not coming from me. Previously, I knew nothing about either The Epoch Times or Joshua Philipp. Looking up info on Epoch, they apparently are a right-wing organization and I'll keep that in mind. And they do seem to be associated w the Falun Gong sect. I am familiar w the wackiness of Falun Gong, altho I sympathize generally w their plight of being severely persecuted in China. I looked for an independent source reviewing The Epoch Times and found a recent one done by an org called "AllSides", which I also know nothing about. Their review says that altho Epoch Times is a right-wing org the overall their reporting is factual. It says that it "does not employ much spin". Its says "its headlines are generally free from sensationalism". It says it provides "full coverage of Democratic policies and proposals" and "quot(es) left-wingers in full in its reporting". Doesnt sound like it's necessarily a non-credible source to me. I couldnt find any independent source evaluating Joshua Philipp.

But regardless of any political slant of The Epoch Times or Philipp, I am quite capable of determining myself whether info is credible or not and can do w/o your patronizing dialogue in that regard. The info reported in the video agrees w that of many other sources, many of which are inside China and I have posted many of those. To me, it should be patently obvious by now to those w unbiased eyes to see what China and the WHO have done and continue to do. But that is my opinion.

This issue should go beyond people's particular political leaning. Unfortunately, instead of coming together to fight this pandemic, too often both Republicans and Democrats are using it to gain political advantage. Sadly, many here seem to be engaging in the same thing. I'm trying to provide useful objective info here as best as I see it and will resist attempts to pull me into the political melee. I will continue to post info here that I think is deserving of people's attention. I would suggest that instead of being a self-appointed arbiter of what info is credible or not you allow others to decide that for themselves.

[Sour Masher]

I did not mean it as a personal attack. I could have left out the first few lines, which come off as patronizing...that was not my intent and I should have worded them differently. I included those, admittedly poorly worded lines, because, I think your voice and argument are important, and I think both are hurt by relying on sources like this. Again, I am not trying to attack you, and this isn't about politics for me. This an important issue and you provide useful data on it. Given that many read your posts with care and trust, as I have, I thought it was important to point out that your post was based on a source that should not be trusted. I think it is important, especially at a time when fears are running high, to be really careful about what sources we pull information from and echo to others. If you were someone people didn't read and trust, it would not be worth pointing out, but you are. So I felt compelled to let everyone know the source was flawed, especially because you most often do provide useful objective info, as you say, and I do not want your posts using this source to be conflated with all of the data driven posts. You have used the source before (in post 1274, putting forth the idea that China developed this virus as a weapon against the US) and I refrained from commenting on it, as I didn't want to get into an argument about it, but seeing the source again, I couldn't help but comment this time.

The arguments you are putting forth about China and the WHO are important and I think we are all best served if they are grounded in credible sources. I am not trying to decide for others which sources are valid, but I do think it is appropriate to make a case against sources like this. Of course others can decide whether the evidence I provided for my claim that this source is flawed is compelling. My making the claim does not strip them of that ability. Just as you feel it important to share with others the information you have shared, I feel it is important to point out that this source is biased and untrustworthy. Again, none of my comments are arguing against your argument, just your repeated use of this source to suggest some pretty spectacular ideas.

[Sour Masher]

This is a documentary by the journalist, Joshua Philipp, on the CV-19 pandemic and how it happened. I think this is a very important video to watch and it raises an issue that I've never thought about and havent heard anyone discuss:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gdd7dtDaYmM

This is a much more detailed investigation then the video I viewed before about the evidence linking the virus' spread to a lab in Wuhan (link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&t=343s). It jibes w this video but goes into much more detail and draws some conclusions about China's motives. Each video mentions the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the P4 Lab which is a subsidiary of the WIV, Huang Yan Ling a lab employee who is thought to have been "patient zero" for CV-19, the fact that Ms. Yan Ling has been missing for some time her info removed from the Institute's website and presumed to be dead, and Shi Zhengli the renowned research virologist who has been studying the coronavirus for many years. Also, the lab supposedly is 280 meters from the Huanan seafood market where China said the virus was first discovered. Both videos say that the virus is not of natural origin and originated in a lab. If the lab employees were exposed to the virus, it seems they could have easily infected someone at the seafood market since it was so close. Neither video explicitly says that the virus was released from the lab intentionally; it appears to have been an accident and the shorter video says that several lab employees were splashed w samples containing the virus.

Philipp's video says that China is intentionally developing biological weapons for potential use against the US. The shorter video is non-committal about this. Up until now, I've thought that China's war against us is primarily economic, political and informational in nature. If China really is doing this, is the US doing the same thing? How do you determine the winner in a battle like this? Does this become like the nuclear arms buildup w the USSR where the country w the most powerful weapons becomes the dominant superpower and it becomes unnecessary to actually use them unless the weaker country doesnt acknowledge its dominance? How do you determine who has the most powerful biological weapons? How do you ensure that your weapons dont infect your own population? By developing an effective vaccine? These are very scary questions that I havent heard anyone discuss.

I do recognize that this video does have a certain political slant to it. But regardless of whether you think that China is developing biological warfare to be used against the US, this is the 2nd video I've seen that says the virus originated in a Wuhan lab and that China attempted to cover it up for weeks, to the peril of the entire world.

Here was the other use of Phillipp and Epoch Times that I refrained from commenting on before. Again, it is possible there is truth in his claims, but they are very bold claims he seems to be making without any proof, and as part of an organization with an obvious agenda against the Chinese government (which, again, I am in no way defending by attacking this source). The regime in China is oppressive and horrible, but if we want to attribute to them creating Covid-19 as a biological weapon against the US, we need credible sources. There is plenty of evidence on firmer footing we can use to support attacks on China. I just feel strongly that conflating those more credible sources with ones like this one is a dangerous path to go down, and I am wary of conspiracy theories in general, when they are put forth with little to know real evidence. Hell, China does that all the time. There are unfounded conspiracies about the US developing Covid-19. Such claims without strong evidence are dangerous. I felt compelled to say that, even if it meant upsetting a poster I respect and benefit from.

[rhd]

Thanx, SM, for your restrained replies to my post. I was upset and may have overreacted to your original post.

I'll note your remarks on Epoch Times for the record. So far, I like the job Josh Philipp does w his videos. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on him for now.

[Sour Masher]

Thanx, SM, for your restrained replies to my post. I was upset and may have overreacted to your original post.

I'll note your remarks on Epoch Times for the record. So far, I like the job Josh Philipp does w his videos. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on him for now.

Thank you for accepting my apology for being patronizing. For the record, my perception is that Epoch Times may have sincere motivations for their bias. The people involved, many of them part of a persecuted religious minority, I am sure, have seen the CCP doing horrible things to people and want to share the message that the CCP is horrible. Many of their articles do seem restrained, unlike a Breitbart or an Alex Jones. Again, there may very well be both truth and sincere motivations behind what Phillipp and ET is reporting, but just because they may be true believers with pure intentions and a measured style doesn't mean they are not biased and irresponsible in their claims and reporting or that we should trust what they are claiming without support.

I think that bias/distortion of reality is evident in previously pushing Qanon, Spygate, and anti-vaccine arguments, although I do not know if Phillipp specifically is a proponent of those things, but he has been with the organization since nearly the beginning. The fact that even FB banned them from running ads, because they broke their fairly lenient rules, is telling. Here is a NYT article on them, and the aggressive media blitz they have engaged in to get their messages out there, and how it has morphed into a source that is favored by Trump and right-wing conspiracy minded folks, for those interested (it seems their bias toward Trump is related to the fact that they perceive him as being tough on the CCP, which they understandably hold in high regard, given their background and agenda):https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/t...s-youtube.html

At the same time, I can understand your and anyone's frustration with the lack coverage by the msm on important covid-19 related issues and the need to find information out wherever we can. And I appreciate your posts highlighting those things. I just see clear bias from this source aimed at trying to get as many people to hate the CCP as possible, using any narrative that accomplishes that, so it is not persuasive to me. I am very open to being persuaded on these things, though. The CPC is worthy of all kinds of condemnation, and I know they were and continue to be deceitful about COVID-19, but the claims about the extent it created, spread, and/or covered up COVID-19 this source makes are fueled by a clear anti-communist and anti-CCP agenda (Phillipp's enitre twitter feed is dedicated to amplifying any and all critiques of China, communism, or socialism, dating back well before the COVID-19 outbreak, with pro-Trump and other conspiracy stuff thrown in the mix), and more importantly, do not seem to be backed up by the sort of evidence journalists should require before making such claims.

[umjewman]

Apologies? Reasoned debate? What the F are we doing here? Least entertaining argument ever. LAME!

[Ken]

Apologies? Reasoned debate? What the F are we doing here? Least entertaining argument ever. LAME!

In your list, you forgot self censoring.

[The Feral Slasher]

Apologies? Reasoned debate? What the F are we doing here? Least entertaining argument ever. LAME!

Hold my beer....

[Ken]

Hold my beer....

All you are is a Rainer beer from my view. (or at least half)

[TranaGreg]

Apologies? Reasoned debate? What the F are we doing here? Least entertaining argument ever. LAME!

yeah, I was going to start calling them Canadians ...

[Sour Masher]

Perhaps in response to claims of a cover up, China has revised the death toll numbers in Wuhan a whopping 50%, up 1290 deaths over their previous reports. Whatever made them do this, I am glad we are getting more accurate numbers: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...unv?li=BBnb7Kz

[Sour Masher]

This study suggests the virus may have jumped to humans as early as mid-September and may not have started in Wuhan. Just speculation at this point, but some evidence suggests both things are possible at this point: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...PqU?li=BBnb7Kz

"Based on the data Forster and his colleagues have collected, the coronavirus outbreak appears to have started between September 13 and December 7. "This assumes a constant mutation rate, which is admittedly unlikely to be the case, and the time estimate could therefore be wrong," he told Newsweek. "But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019."

He said it is possible the outbreak did not originate in Wuhan, as until January 17, almost all the isolates were type B. In Guangdong, a province about 500 miles from Wuhan, seven of the 11 isolates were type A. "These case numbers are small because few genomes are available for the early stage of the outbreak, before the Chinese New Year travel pre-January 25 would have started mixing patterns up geographically," Forster said."