Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

If I were betting, I'd probably go with 10x, but I really do think its higher than 10x. I'd be too afraid to bet on it though.

The information that I am hearing, which isn't public yet and therefore unverified (although I believe my source) is that the rate of positives for lgG and lgM antibodies in the US population is around or just under 1%.

[nots]

It reminds me of the old environmental battles with fishermen. Billy Joel has sung about it, and it is hard not to see both sides on things like this. You had, on the one hand, environmentalists and scientists that knew that over-fishing was not only bad for the ecosystem, but could lead to the collapse of the industry long term, so they called for restrictions. On the other hand, you had people who for generations, this was their only way of life, and following the new regulations meant there wasn't enough money to provide for their families. They also saw the big fisheries that were really doing the damage and they said, why do I now have to suffer for the damage they did?

Likewise, I think there are a lot of people in a lot of places that are hurting and they look at how many cases are in the NYC and surrounding areas, and then look at the cases locally, and say, why do I have to suffer before of what is happening over there? I have bills to pay now and the risk in my area seems minimal. You have places with under 100 cases per 100k people. It seems to many a risk worth taking. That is another reason it is so vital to do more testing, as I think the real numbers are higher and they would give more people pause about taking that risk if they were known.

Downeaster Alexa is one my favorite Billy Joel songs about what you wrote. Fantastic tune.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 4/13 at 7:46 AM, exactly 3 days ago:

- 645,361 cases in US, up from 562,195, a 14.8% increase. That's a much smaller increase than last time (19.6%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of every 13 days. The US would project to hit 1 mil cases by April 30, exactly as Liz Specht predicted. The states w the highest # of cases per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, DC and Michigan. The states w the highest # of tests per capita, in order, are New York, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, DC, Washington state and New Jersey. As of 4/12, the US has a testing rate of 9.3 per thousand. For comparison, S. Korea's rate is 10.4 per thousand and Italy's is 18.9 per thousand.
- 28,638 deaths in US, up from 22,158, a 29.2% increase which is a smaller increase than last time (32.6%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of every 8 days. The US projects to hit 100,000 deaths by about May 1. Every state has now reported a death and American Samoa is the only territory w/o a case. The US mortality rate is now 4.44%, which is higher than last time, (3.94%). The states w the highest # of deaths per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Louisiana, Michigan, Massachusetts and DC.
- 2,098,209 cases worldwide, up from 1,866,779, a 12.4% increase which is a smaller increase than last time (15.3%).
- 135,828 deaths worldwide, up from 115,365, a 17.7% increase which is a smaller increase than last time (19.0%). Mortality rates continue to rise. The world mortality rate is 6.47%, up from 6.18%. Italy's mortality rate is 13.11%, up from 12.76%, Spain's is 10.46%, up from 10.32%, France's is 11.61%, up from 10.86%, UK's is 13.07%, up from 12.59% and Germany's is 2.82%, up from 2.36%. Belgium, which has seen a spike in recent days, has the highest rate of all at 13.95%.
- 215 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), same as last time. There are only 14 countries, 11 of which are island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected deaths: Lesotho, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Vietnam having the most cases w no reported deaths, 268.

Rates of increase continue to fall but I've yet to see a significant change of direction in the curves.

[Gregg]

Likewise, I think there are a lot of people in a lot of places that are hurting and they look at how many cases are in the NYC and surrounding areas, and then look at the cases locally, and say, why do I have to suffer before of what is happening over there? I have bills to pay now and the risk in my area seems minimal. You have places with under 100 cases per 100k people. It seems to many a risk worth taking. That is another reason it is so vital to do more testing, as I think the real numbers are higher and they would give more people pause about taking that risk if they were known.

If I was out of money and could not care for my family I think I would look at like this. Let's say a full 30% of the population will get the virus. That means I have 70% chance of not getting it. If a full 10% of the population dies from the virus I have a 90% chance of not dying. I would feel compelled to take those odds to try to save my family.

I am not in that situation and trying to play hard by the rules. I do not want to add to the problems nor take unnecessary risks. I feel for those that have to.

[swampdragon]

If I was out of money and could not care for my family I think I would look at like this. Let's say a full 30% of the population will get the virus. That means I have 70% chance of not getting it. If a full 10% of the population dies from the virus I have a 90% chance of not dying. I would feel compelled to take those odds to try to save my family.

I am not in that situation and trying to play hard by the rules. I do not want to add to the problems nor take unnecessary risks. I feel for those that have to.

interesting perspective - if you are in that situation then what specifically would you do - that is the part I dont quite get

[Ken]

If I was out of money and could not care for my family I think I would look at like this. Let's say a full 30% of the population will get the virus. That means I have 70% chance of not getting it. If a full 10% of the population dies from the virus I have a 90% chance of not dying. I would feel compelled to take those odds to try to save my family.

I am not in that situation and trying to play hard by the rules. I do not want to add to the problems nor take unnecessary risks. I feel for those that have to.

If it were only you, sure, but if you going out and getting the virus exposes your wife or your parents, then what?

[The Feral Slasher]

If it were only you, sure, but if you going out and getting the virus exposes your wife or your parents, then what?

I think it depends how desperate a person really is. If the are literally out of food and money they are probably willing to take some chances. Although as swamp dragon pointed out, there are really not many job options

[DMT]

I think it depends how desperate a person really is. If the are literally out of food and money they are probably willing to take some chances. Although as swamp dragon pointed out, there are really not many job options

Grocery stores and Costco are all hiring.

[The Feral Slasher]

For anyone who didn't think so - apparently they can have outbreaks in less populated places like South Dakota

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1250758795132887040

An appallingly high number of workers—644—at the Smithfield pork processing plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, have contracted Covid-19.

That plant is now the the nation's largest coronavirus hot spot, with more cases than the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt

[The Feral Slasher]

For anyone who didn't think so - apparently they can have outbreaks in less populated places like South Dakota

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1250758795132887040

An appallingly high number of workers—644—at the Smithfield pork processing plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, have contracted Covid-19.

That plant is now the the nation's largest coronavirus hot spot, with more cases than the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt

Just appalling

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/crime/2020/04/15/smithfield-foods-sioux-falls-sd-worker-dies-coronavirus-hot-spot/2994502001/

Angelita Rodriguez feels her husband was worked to death.

The 64-year-old Sioux Falls man, Augustín Rodriguez, showed up for every one of his shifts at Smithfield Foods, where he worked for nearly two decades. Augustín kept coming to work even after he began experiencing COVID-19 symptoms like fever and cough because he needed to work.

It wasn't until there was sharp pain in his side that he called in sick three days before he was hospitalized on April 4, his wife said. On April 9, she received a call from Avera telling her to self-quarantine because her husband tested positive for COVID-19.

[Gregg]

interesting perspective - if you are in that situation then what specifically would you do - that is the part I dont quite get

Either go back to work or get a new job or two if needed.

I am not saying this lightly. I am saying that sometimes you have to take the best option among the bad options.

[Gregg]

If it were only you, sure, but if you going out and getting the virus exposes your wife or your parents, then what?

Go to work, stay away from my family. Basement or garage, keeping them away from me.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I still don't understand why everyone staying home while a vaccine is created and receiving money from the government to make ends meet until the vaccine is made, isn't one of your options. It's obviously the safest choice.

[Ken]

Go to work, stay away from my family. Basement or garage, keeping them away from me.

That doesn't really work though if you share a fridge, and groceries, etc. And if you don't, and you can completely hole yourself up with your own separate set of appliances, then you aren't likely in that situation in the first place.

[revo]

Oh great, I hope the coronavirus-tinged sausages will be discounted at least 25%!