Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?

One of the weird things about 538's model is that as time goes on, the demographic and incumbency weighting drops off and they converge much more on what the polls actually say. I get why they do this, but at the same time it can present a skewed version of reality of things changing over time when they're really not. So I'm not sure Clinton ever really had a probability > 80% that was supported by polling. Although I do think the Comey letter hurt her some, too, at the end.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I am curious to see which way Texas goes in the presidential election. It seems like the polling is pretty much a tossup at this point. Unfortunately, on probably a more important question, I'm pretty sure John Cornyn gains reelection to the Senate, he's up by 3-8 points in the most recent set of polls.

[frae]

A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?

I remained cautious through the whole cycle, but if this was any presidential race pre-2016 we would all be calling it a laugher. 9+ points nationally, 5 + points in the blue wall states. Slight leads in FL, AZ, and NC. Coin flips in GA, IA, and OH. TX likely to be within 2-3 points. I won't be celebrating until this is over, but this is not a close race by probability.

All we can individually do is vote and hope for the best, but I feel very good about where we are in the Presidential and House races. The Senate will be close, but I definitely believe Democrats get to 50, the question is do they get more?

[frae]

yeah, but you're teaching what? AV class or something? That hardly counts.

It is true fine, I am babysitting obnoxious teenagers 4 days a week because their parents don't want them

[heyelander]

Every time he says PA is closed I just want to yell I am teaching in person 4 days a week. We are far from shut down.

yeah, but you're teaching what? AV class or something? That hardly counts.

[frae]

Possible exception of Lincoln, possible.

[frae]

Every time he says PA is closed I just want to yell I am teaching in person 4 days a week. We are far from shut down.

[revo]

According to Politico, Bernie Sanders is interested in becoming Labor Secretary in a Biden regime, should he win.

[heyelander]

I'm really curious what the Q Storm is, just from a "I'm shaking my head at this lunacy" standpoint, but I really, REALLY do not want to google it.

[fuhrdog]

He needs lessons from Toobin.

I think Toobin needs lessons from Rudy. Just deny it