Just to prove the you an find a poll anywhere that says what you want here are 3 polls from the blue wall states by Univ Wisc Madison saying Biden's lead is growing...
"Biden has substantial leads over Trump among “likely” voters. Likely voters are defined as registered voters who also report that they are “certain” to vote or have already voted. In contrast to prior ERC surveys this year, Biden has crossed the crucial 50% mark in all three states. Compared to the previous survey in September, Biden’s leads have grown from +6 to +10 in Michigan, from +4 to +8 in Pennsylvania, and from +4 to +9 in Wisconsin."
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There is some chance of Democrats taking a chamber in the Texas state house in a wave election, which would be important since this will be the redistricting legislature, and Texas congressional districts are heavily gerrymandered in Republican favor. Also, there are demographic trends that are pushing Texas purple. The Hispanicization of Texas is one that people have been touting for a long time, but it hasn't had the effect that people have expected because (a) Hispanics in south Texas who reliably vote Democratic don't turn out to vote, and (b) Hispanics in other parts of Texas don't favor Democrats by huge margins. But Democratic growth in the large urban and suburban areas is the trend that is actually moving Texas purple.Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
I agree that Texas will still lean somewhat red for the near future in any normal election cycle, but I think it will be more in the realm of Arizona and Florida in that regard, rather than being reliably and solidly red like its neighbors Oklahoma or Louisiana. A run-of-the-mill Democratic candidate will still be at a disadvantage to win statewide election, but a good Democratic candidate will have a chance that they haven't had in the past.Leave a comment:
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TLP is dumping tons of ads today. This is another one trying to take down Graham. In May 2016, Graham said: "If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it." He was wrong about the GOP getting destroyed then, but I sure hope he is right in 2020, because he and the rest of the Trumpers sure do deserve it. I know I keep harping on Graham, but I cannot get over how a man who voted against party in 2016--he did not vote for Trump in 2016--ended up becoming one of the biggest lampreys suckling on the bloated shark that is Trump. He knew what was right and said as much before almost any other Republican in office, and he still fell in line completely and utterly, turning from one of his staunchest critics to one of his most ardent defenders. I will never understand how he sold his soul like that.
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Again, I hope it turns out that way. I want the higher turn out to be fueled by a recognition that the SOB in office needs to go. I see that only pushing it close, but I still don't see Biden winning Texas. And even if he somehow does, if it is dependent on unprecedented turn out, that is not sustainable, so Texas would go back to being red long term. Still would be great as a one off, though.Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostLeave a comment:
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I read a county-by-county analysis of the potential turnout effects in Texas, and the summary basically was that if turnout is historically high in the Rio Grande Valley, that's 300k extra votes for Biden. If it's historically high in the suburbs, that's 400k extra votes for Trump. If it's historically high in the smaller cities, that's 100k extra votes for Trump. And if it's historically high in the largest urban counties, that's 900k-1.2 million extra votes for Biden. That's a net 700k-900k vote shift to Biden in the high turnout scenario. That's out of a likely 11 million total votes cast (17 million total registered voters).
The margin in Texas in 2016 was 800k votes.Leave a comment:
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I'd put Biden's chances of winning Texas at 40%. Which doesn't mean anything, of course, because it's below 50%, so if Trump wins Texas, I can say I expected that, and if Biden wins Texas, I can say I was higher on his chances than a lot of people were. Ha.
But I think what I'm thinking here is that if for some reason the white Rust Belt male voter still favors Trump more than the polls realize, and the Midwest swings toward Trump a little like it did in 2016, that while Republicans as a party play well in Texas, Trump personally does not the way he does in the Midwest (or has in the past). And that might be enough to move Texas bluer than a few of those other swing states in the situation where they are really close to going red. I think the polls are probably better than they were in 2016, and Biden's polling margin in those states is bigger than Clinton's was, but nonetheless, polling is a tricky business, and unexpected things can happen that affect different areas of the country differently. In Texas there has always been a huge latent blue vote (both in the Rio Grande Valley, where early voting turnout is up but not astoundingly so, and in the urban centers, where population has grown and turnout is really high this cycle). I've never had hope that those voters would actually turn out to the polls, but the early voting numbers have me wondering.Leave a comment:
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I hope you are right, but I can't seem to bring myself to really believe it is possible. The last time Texas went blue was in 76 for Carter, the year before I was born. Since then it hasn't been close, and even Trump, who got the lowest percentage for a Repub in my lifetime still won by 9 pts. So, for me Texas has always been as red as steer meat, and I can't see it any other way. It would certainly shake things up nationally if Texas became a legit swing state, though.Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostLeave a comment:
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I don't think I'm entirely without credibility on this. I've been consistent for a couple years now that no challenger had a snowball's chance in hell of defeating John Cornyn for Senate, even when others here expressed such hopes.
I think the presidential race in Texas this year hinges on turnout, and early turnout has been really high. I know it's been high everywhere, but in Texas it's been really high, and Texas being a solid red state in the past has hinged on it being a very low turnout state.
Trump's chances of holding Texas depend on that early turnout having been the Democrats shifting their vote from election day. All the granular data I've seen at county level does not support that conclusion, but I guess we will know for sure in 8 or 9 days.Leave a comment:
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People may wonder why I keep bringing up the numbers in Texas. The popular narrative is that if Texas goes blue, then the whole country will have gone blue, and it won't matter. I'm not quite convinced that's the case. I think there is a chance that Texas is bluer in this election than one or more of the supposedly more important swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. I don't think it's necessarily >50% likely, but it's a lot more likely than people are giving it credit for. I think if this election unexpectedly tightens a little bit in the final week, that Texas could be the swing state.Leave a comment:
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And unlike 2016, the amount of votes already sent in via mail or done through early voting is much larger. A late game surprise may not have anything close to the impact of Comey's investigation announcement.Leave a comment:
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I see almost no movement in Arizona in the forecast model it has been pretty regularly at 78%, the high was 80% and is at 78% today. The only favorable poll for McSally is a Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen had the Republicans holding the house in 2018 so not exactly someone whose polling data is reliable. The other good poll was a C rated Susq. poll for McSally. The last two A rated or better polls have Kelly up 8 and 11. This is a lean D race for sure
The pres. continues to be very steady despite everyone wanting to say things will tighten. The 538 model keeps the race at 87/12/1 tie. 88 has been the high and listening to Nate's podcast the model may move to Biden if nothing else changes over this week because when there are no other events to happen you have to lean more on the polls.
The media wants a tight race but the national average is 9.4 today which is down from 10.7 and in swing states I am not seeing movement that matters in those swing states. Here are the 3 states that still matter most and they are outside the MOE. As Nate pointed out a MOE can go both ways not just Trumps way.
Scroll down these links and look at polling avg not just the models projection.
PA avg Biden +5
WI avg Biden + 7
MI avg Biden +7
So look anyone can write an article and cherry pick polls that make the argument they want, but look at polling data as a whole. Check back in Friday and when Biden is still near 87 remember Clinton was down to 65 on that day and this isn't 2016 and Biden has much better favorable and has been hammering PA with visits and ads.
We can all worry for plenty of reasons, but again the math is still in Biden's favor and the clock is running out for Trump.Leave a comment:
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If the campaign spokesperson tweets revelation is recent, that explains a lot, I guess.Originally posted by chancellor View PostLeave a comment:
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Many believe Kelly's campaign has had some pretty serious unforced errors recently - some pretty bad/ineffective ads, an unconvincing answer to McSally's charges his businesses are too involved with China, and his campaign spokesperson having tweets calling police "worthless f---ing pigs" all haven't helped.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostLeave a comment:
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Ah, thanks. That article is comparing over the last week, and that might be true. I don't think there's been any substantial movement toward Trump in the last couple days worth of polls (and of course polls are lagging indicators).Originally posted by heyelander View Post
I still think Texas is going to be super close, within 1-2 points, with high turnout driving some chance of a narrow Biden victory, but the Siena College poll is giving me some pause on that. Many of the other recent polls in Texas have Biden even or up by 1 point.Leave a comment:
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