Originally posted by frae
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Election 2020
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I am curious to see which way Texas goes in the presidential election. It seems like the polling is pretty much a tossup at this point. Unfortunately, on probably a more important question, I'm pretty sure John Cornyn gains reelection to the Senate, he's up by 3-8 points in the most recent set of polls.
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A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.
A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?
I remained cautious through the whole cycle, but if this was any presidential race pre-2016 we would all be calling it a laugher. 9+ points nationally, 5 + points in the blue wall states. Slight leads in FL, AZ, and NC. Coin flips in GA, IA, and OH. TX likely to be within 2-3 points. I won't be celebrating until this is over, but this is not a close race by probability.
All we can individually do is vote and hope for the best, but I feel very good about where we are in the Presidential and House races. The Senate will be close, but I definitely believe Democrats get to 50, the question is do they get more?Last edited by frae; 10-23-2020, 09:45 AM.
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Originally posted by frae View PostEvery time he says PA is closed I just want to yell I am teaching in person 4 days a week. We are far from shut down.
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Every time he says PA is closed I just want to yell I am teaching in person 4 days a week. We are far from shut down.
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According to Politico, Bernie Sanders is interested in becoming Labor Secretary in a Biden regime, should he win.
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I'm really curious what the Q Storm is, just from a "I'm shaking my head at this lunacy" standpoint, but I really, REALLY do not want to google it.
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