Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

Biden trending, Hillary on the media circuit and Pelosi fear mongering to keep the nomination a centrist.

When will we ever learn......

Even if they agree with Trump 95% of the time, as long as they can beat Trump, everything will get better if we just have a nicer, gentler, uncle-like figure sniffing our hair and kissing our heads after bedtime stories about re-discovering the soul of America while enacting the same policies as Trump. Trust in the system!

[B-Fly]

Look, Biden obviously has a handful of built-in advantages. First, he's known by almost every voter. Second, he's generally well liked. Those two alone are more than enough to put him way ahead of a candidate like Klobuchar who is trying to break through in a similar "lane" with a similar platform. Biden's other advantage is that he hasn't cast a single vote since 2008 and can, with some degree of credibility, say that he's changed his perspective (or "evolved") on issues over his eight years as Barack Obama's VP and in observing the Trump Administration. Ultimately, though, he'll need to convince voters that he's the one with the experience and acumen to (1) win over Trump, and (2) implement positive change for the American people within our existing polarized, two-party political system and the interplay of that polarization with our constitutional checks and balances. He'll presumably need to convince enough Democrats that his approach would bring more and better tangible results than Sanders or others who are proposing more aggressive progressive remedies.

[nots]

Biden up 32 in the new Harris X poll. What’s informative (to me at least) is that he was up +17 the last time in this particular poll. I am sure some of it is an ephemeral post announcement bump, but I would feel pretty good at this point if I were in his shoes. It’s hard to argue that, given the number of candidates, that he is underperforming so far.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

[nots]

Mor of the same today, albeit only a 21 point lead in this poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

This a +7 for Biden since the same poll last Tuesday.

[onejayhawk]

All polls at this point are like day #10 of the extended weather forecast, at best.

Best, in this case is polling in IA and NH. Both states are very serious about the primary season and people start paying attention early. Not coincidentally, the gold standard of pollsters is Selzer and Company of Des Moines, Iowa. When 538 did an article (in 2014, see below) on poll herding--the tendency of polls to produce an out come similar to other polls--Ann Selzer and her team were the baseline. So, when the Des Moines Register publishes a poll for Iowa, pay attention. When PPP publishes a nationwide poll, not so much.

Right now the relevant polling is fairly close. RCP has Iowa within 4% and NH is 1%. Interestingly, Mayor Pete is comfortably third in both averages. I have said there is no Democratic candidate with the necessary likability. I now correct myself. Buttigieg has it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/

J

[revo]

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet throws his hat into the very, very crowded ring.

[onejayhawk]

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet throws his hat into the very, very crowded ring.

Car. The crowding is why they call it the Clown Car.

J

[senorsheep]

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet throws his hat into the very, very crowded ring.

This is odd. Bennet is a long-time backroom operator. When he went all apesh!t on Ted Cruz in January, the joke in Colorado was "Wow, who knew he could speak?" In his nine years as a Senator, the guy rarely engaged the public. He's not a bad dude, he's just always been an operations-oriented wonk content to work behind the scenes, not the kind of guy you imagine out front stirring the masses with soaring rhetoric. And certainly not a guy who can easily distinguish himself on a national stage with 19 other people, many of whom have big personalities and a lot more name recognition than he'll ever have.

So, why is he doing this? He did just recently have a cancer scare, so maybe that drove him in a new direction?

Or, if we want to go the tin foil hat route, is he in there to protect another candidate? He very much fits the establishment moderate mold, and his main theme is restoring our broken government. Could he use that as jumping point to attack the progressives in the field, so that another establishment moderate (Biden?) can keep his or her hands clean?

Also interesting: He used to be John Hickenlooper's staff when Hick was the mayor of Denver.

Weird, for sure.

[swampdragon]

This is odd. Bennet is a long-time backroom operator. When he went all apesh!t on Ted Cruz in January, the joke in Colorado was "Wow, who knew he could speak?" In his nine years as a Senator, the guy rarely engaged the public. He's not a bad dude, he's just always been an operations-oriented wonk content to work behind the scenes, not the kind of guy you imagine out front stirring the masses with soaring rhetoric. And certainly not a guy who can easily distinguish himself on a national stage with 19 other people, many of whom have big personalities and a lot more name recognition than he'll ever have.

So, why is he doing this? He did just recently have a cancer scare, so maybe that drove him in a new direction?

Or, if we want to go the tin foil hat route, is he in there to protect another candidate? He very much fits the establishment moderate mold, and his main theme is restoring our broken government. Could he use that as jumping point to attack the progressives in the field, so that another establishment moderate (Biden?) can keep his or her hands clean?

Also interesting: He used to be John Hickenlooper's staff when Hick was the mayor of Denver.

Weird, for sure.

why couldn't Hickenlooper gain any traction? I had thought that he could be of interest.

[senorsheep]

why couldn't Hickenlooper gain any traction? I had thought that he could be of interest.

I wouldn't write him or any Dem candidate off yet. It's still early in the game.

I don't have much sense yet of what kind of candidate Democrat voters want for 2020. It seems to me like the party is having a mass identity crisis, similar to what the Republicans went through with the Tea Party fracture. Right now, I feel like this could be a tough primary for the sober centrist types. Which is too bad, because I think that that type of candidate is better positioned to peel off Trump-weary Republicans and independents in the general.

[Sour Masher]

I wouldn't write him or any Dem candidate off yet. It's still early in the game.

I don't have much sense yet of what kind of candidate Democrat voters want for 2020. It seems to me like the party is having a mass identity crisis, similar to what the Republicans went through with the Tea Party fracture. Right now, I feel like this could be a tough primary for the sober centrist types. Which is too bad, because I think that that type of candidate is better positioned to peel off Trump-weary Republicans and independents in the general.

Your last line is what is logical to me as well, but I'm struggling to find evidence to support that take. Is there evidence that there are Trump-weary Republicans? His approval ratings continue to astonish me, so I'd be grateful to be pointed to evidence that there are Republicans who would support a centrist Democrat. If the evidence isn't there, is strengthens the argument that the way to win is the path Trump took--embrace the base and stop trying to court the middle.

[senorsheep]

Your last line is what is logical to me as well, but I'm struggling to find evidence to support that take. Is there evidence that there are Trump-weary Republicans? His approval ratings continue to astonish me, so I'd be grateful to be pointed to evidence that there are Republicans who would support a centrist Democrat. If the evidence isn't there, is strengthens the argument that the way to win is the path Trump took--embrace the base and stop trying to court the middle.

No evidence from polling, but I dismiss most polling as too flawed to be useful. I'm just using anecdotal evidence from what I read, what I hear, what I see, and the people I know and interact with every day, plus wisdom accumulated over the years. The support among Republicans I read and know - the educated types living outside the Fox News bubble - is not as strong as polling suggests. But, we all know about the selection bias inherent in anecdotal evidence, and the value of wisdom can change as the landscape evolves, so I could be wrong. Maybe there aren't enough of that type of Republican left to make a difference.

Given how the electorate seems to be fragmenting, I'm not sure I could define either party's base anymore.

[Bernie Brewer]

Your last line is what is logical to me as well, but I'm struggling to find evidence to support that take. Is there evidence that there are Trump-weary Republicans? His approval ratings continue to astonish me, so I'd be grateful to be pointed to evidence that there are Republicans who would support a centrist Democrat. If the evidence isn't there, is strengthens the argument that the way to win is the path Trump took--embrace the base and stop trying to court the middle.

I'm not sure I'm a Republican anymore, but I'm definitely Trump-wary and would vote for a centrist Dem. Even Biden.

[swampdragon]

I'm not sure I'm a Republican anymore, but I'm definitely Trump-wary and would vote for a centrist Dem. Even Biden.

Did you vote Trump in the election? and have you not voted Republican before?

[Bernie Brewer]

Did you vote Trump in the election? and have you not voted Republican before?

No, I've been Never Trump since he entered the race. I have historically voted mainly Republican, but I have never been a "registered" Republican. I voted for John B. Anderson over Reagan back in the day. I voted for both GWB and GHWB, as well as Dole, McCain and Romney.