Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

That wasn’t an audience of union folks that, in many instances, negotiated lower pay for better benefits.
Here’s a recent poll from Kaiser. It does not seem to validate your poll that 80% of Dems and 51% of Reps support Med4All.

https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/

One of the interesting nuggets in that poll is that 55% of people think they will be able to keep their own insurance under Med4All. I think once they learn they can’t, the support is going to erode some.

Just my opinion, but... I believe people don't worry about keeping their private plans so much as they worry about keeping their doctor, and access to their preferred hospitals. Med4All is more open because you don't need to be within a certain network to be able to choose your doctor, choose your hospital, or choose your medical course without fear of getting hit with a huge medical bill. The current system puts choice in the hands of insurers who are incentivized to deny coverage. Its lunacy to the entire rest of the world. I'm sure Biden will fare worse for rejecting Med4All. Hope so anyway.

[revo]

Dejected Donnie goes on a deranged retweeting tear because he still can't get over the IAFF endorsing Biden.

[Teenwolf]

First post-Biden declaration poll is not good news for the rest of the field:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	CNN	Biden 39, Sanders 15, Harris 5, Warren 8, Buttigieg 7, O'Rourke 6, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gillibrand 1, Hickenlooper 0

CNN has Biden with a 24 point lead over Sanders and the rest of the field is way back.

Morning Consult has Biden with a 14 point lead over the rest.

Here is the age breakdown from the CNN poll. Tell me if you notice anything that might favour Biden over Sanders.


Total 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <45 45+
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Former Vice President Joe Biden 39% N/A N/A 46% 50% N/A 45%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 15% N/A N/A 13% 9% N/A 11%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 8% N/A N/A 11% 8% N/A 9%
South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 7% N/A N/A 7% 5% N/A 7%
Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke 6% N/A N/A 2% 5% N/A 5%
California Senator Kamala Harris 5% N/A N/A 3% 3% N/A 3%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 2% N/A N/A 2% 2% N/A 3%
Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard 2% N/A N/A 0% 2% N/A 1%
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 2% N/A N/A 2% 1% N/A 1%


hahahaha.... a poll that samples an insignificant number of people under 50! What a great tool for propaganda, just like the last primary when they would show the delegate counts including superdelegates who hadn't voted yet. Isn't it also interesting that we see Biden at 45% for the 45+ crowd, but he slips to 39% just with the insignificant number of under 50 polled? Or that Bernie is at 11% for 45+ yet bumps up to 15% just from the insignificant under 50 voters? How skewed is this thing? So hard to tell without representative voter sampling, and while clearly over-sampling Biden's largest demographic.

The only purpose it serves is wagging the dog, telling folks Bernie doesn't have a shot and he should drop out and fall in line. One more year of that narrative coming up.

[B-Fly]

3 polls. most interesting to me is that the same six candidates got 5+ percent - and that no one else got 3 pct in any of these polls

CNN:::::::::::::::::::::: Biden 39, Bernie 15, Warren 8, Pete 7, Beto 6, Harris 5
Quinnipiac::::::::::::::: Biden 38, Warren 12, Bernie 11, Pete 10, Harris 8, Beto 5
Morning Consult::::::::: Biden 36, Bernie 22, Warren 9, Pete 8, Harris 7, Beto 5

averages: Biden 38, Bernie 16, Warren 10, Pete 8, Harris 7, Beto 5

Warren is on the move in a positive direction, moving past O'Rourke, Harris and Buttigieg in these polls. I think her campaign has been very solid since the weak opening. If I had to vote today, she'd probably have my vote, on the basis of the strength and detail of her policy proposals.

[Teenwolf]

Warren is on the move in a positive direction, moving past O'Rourke, Harris and Buttigieg in these polls. I think her campaign has been very solid since the weak opening. If I had to vote today, she'd probably have my vote, on the basis of the strength and detail of her policy proposals.

How did you feel about Warren calling out Biden's record of eliminating bankruptcy protections for consumers?

[Kevin Seitzer]

How did you feel about Warren calling out Biden's record of eliminating bankruptcy protections for consumers?

I was pleased with what I learned about Warren's background, and the reasons for her change of heart and ultimately change of political party.

I am impressed with anyone who can publicly admit that they were wrong and talk about how they learned from their mistakes. On top of that, anyone in political power who actually has a heart for those who are being hurt by policies and who listens to them, absorbs the lessons from what they have heard, and eventually formulates and advocates for policies in line with what they have learned, is someone who understands what being a public servant is all about. Frankly, this was one of Hillary Clinton's greatest and probably most undersold strengths, and I'm pleased to see Warren demonstrate some of the same.

[B-Fly]

How did you feel about Warren calling out Biden's record of eliminating bankruptcy protections for consumers?

I think that's a completely fair issue-based point of distinction.

[Teenwolf]

I actually heard something else fascinating from that CNN poll. There was a question about how much the participant felt informed on Joe Biden's record in the Senate and something like 75% answered either very little or nothing. Further, on the question of whether voters are decided or not, only 36% are definitely decided. Lastly, the most important issues to voters were supporting Med4All, Green New Deal, and free public college. All issues Biden is furthest right on. Also, if those were the issues driving the 50+ voters, interesting to think of how far we could swing left once millenials turn out.

So all of the contextual answers show that we have a very long way to go. I would say a deeper read shows serious problems for Biden, and good news for Warren, Harris, & Ghetto-Booty (how's my nickname game doing?).

[Teenwolf]

I think that's a completely fair issue-based point of distinction.

I noticed that every time Warren and Sanders attack Biden's record, they preface it by complimenting his character. He's a nice guy, we've known each other for a long time, I respect him... then BAM! Very civilized, and I like that they're emphasizing policy over personality. The entire field will be able to sideline Biden once his record is viewed with any scrutiny.

[TranaGreg]

I noticed that every time Warren and Sanders attack Biden's record, they preface it by complimenting his character. He's a nice guy, we've known each other for a long time, I respect him... then BAM! Very civilized, and I like that they're emphasizing policy over personality. The entire field will be able to sideline Biden once his record is viewed with any scrutiny.

unless all that really matters is personality ...

[Teenwolf]

I was pleased with what I learned about Warren's background, and the reasons for her change of heart and ultimately change of political party.

I am impressed with anyone who can publicly admit that they were wrong and talk about how they learned from their mistakes. On top of that, anyone in political power who actually has a heart for those who are being hurt by policies and who listens to them, absorbs the lessons from what they have heard, and eventually formulates and advocates for policies in line with what they have learned, is someone who understands what being a public servant is all about. Frankly, this was one of Hillary Clinton's greatest and probably most undersold strengths, and I'm pleased to see Warren demonstrate some of the same.

Interesting. I feel Bernie has been apologizing a lot, and speaking about lessons learned from his last campaign. Whereas Biden has larger skeletons, but is mostly unwilling to own up to his mistakes. I wonder if he will selectively apologize for anything, or if he takes the Trump route of apologizing for nothing. He attempted to show sympathy for Anita Hill without taking personal responsibility, then apologized to her on the phone and was basically told "your apology is insufficient". Seems likely he avoids policy entirely and runs on nostalgia, hoping he coasts on healing the soul of America. Good luck, Joe.

[B-Fly]

Interesting. I feel Bernie has been apologizing a lot, and speaking about lessons learned from his last campaign. Whereas Biden has larger skeletons, but is mostly unwilling to own up to his mistakes. I wonder if he will selectively apologize for anything, or if he takes the Trump route of apologizing for nothing. He attempted to show sympathy for Anita Hill without taking personal responsibility, then apologized to her on the phone and was basically told "your apology is insufficient". Seems likely he avoids policy entirely and runs on nostalgia, hoping he coasts on healing the soul of America. Good luck, Joe.

I suspect he'll say that his positions on particular issues and his sympathy to particular concerns have evolved over his decades in public service, which has the benefit of probably being true.

[nots]

These weren’t really concerns for Democrats when he ran on the Obama ticket in 2008 and 2012, so it’s hard to believe they will gain much traction now. I think most of his Senatorial record is already baked into the cake and will have very little impact going forward. Fodder for the others to criticize him on, sure, but no real import to voting rank and file Democrats.

[B-Fly]

These weren’t really concerns for Democrats when he ran on the Obama ticket in 2008 and 2012, so it’s hard to believe they will gain much traction now. I think most of his Senatorial record is already baked into the cake and will have very little impact going forward. Fodder for the others to criticize him on, sure, but no real import to voting rank and file Democrats.

I generally think that a VP nominee's prior voting record is minimally important because a VP has no power to make policy. The VP has to carry water for the President. So I think it's much more relevant now. Ultimately, Biden's best argument for the nomination in my opinion is his swing state polling and his head-to-head polling against Trump. If he sustains it, then maybe he's the guy to ride. If not, I'd certainly prefer someone both younger and with a more inspiring set of policy proposals.

[nots]

I generally think that a VP nominee's prior voting record is minimally important because a VP has no power to make policy. The VP has to carry water for the President. So I think it's much more relevant now. Ultimately, Biden's best argument for the nomination in my opinion is his swing state polling and his head-to-head polling against Trump. If he sustains it, then maybe he's the guy to ride. If not, I'd certainly prefer someone both younger and with a more inspiring set of policy proposals.

Mike Pence’s voting record was/is minimally important?