Election 2020

[nots]

I’ve tried many. Nothing pleases Nots. He’s like a heckler at a comedy show who only buys the tickets to heckle.

Not true at all... I thought your post about the IFAA supporting Biden was an important post but you chose to dilute it with your tired nicknames. Put another way, I don’t ‘heckle’ Sour Masher who probably likes Trump no more than you do....I wonder why that is?

[revo]

Not true at all... I thought your post about the IFAA supporting Biden was an important post but you chose to dilute it with your tired nicknames. Put another way, I don’t ‘heckle’ Sour Masher who probably likes Trump no more than you do....I wonder why that is?

It was an important endorsement, but then Donald Schmuck (how’s that one?) had to predictably bash our firemen and unions because he was so butthurt.

And yeah, you’ve gotten into many spats with others over semantics rather than content. I’ll have to dig some up when I have time. Why do you think that is?

[nots]

It was an important endorsement, but then Donald Schmuck (how’s that one?) had to predictably bash our firemen and unions because he was so butthurt.

And yeah, you’ve gotten into many spats with others over semantics rather than content. I’ll have to dig some up when I have time. Why do you think that is?

Donald Schmuck? Meh...I guess it’s more original than usual for you but I think you’ve pretty much played out the whole schtick.
And yes, I am sure I have gotten to the occasional verbal spat with others on here over the years as have most of us that post in here. I can’t think of any that involve calling Trump or Obama or Bush a silly nickname(s) over and over again but the one with you, but good luck on your research I guess.

[revo]

Donald Schmuck? Meh...I guess it’s more original than usual for you but I think you’ve pretty much played out the whole schtick.

Wow, so you’re saying using emasculating nicknames is a childish and tired schtick? By George, I think he’s finally got it!

[nots]

Wow, so you’re saying using emasculating nicknames is a childish and tired schtick? By George, I think he’s finally got it!

Right—your use of emasculating nicknames is a childish and tired schtick. Looks like we are on the same page now.

[revo]

Right—your use of emasculating nicknames is a childish and tired schtick. Looks like we are on the same page now.

Awesome! Now that we're on the same page, you can stop with your tiresome trolling!

[revo]

First post-Biden declaration poll is not good news for the rest of the field:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	CNN	Biden 39, Sanders 15, Harris 5, Warren 8, Buttigieg 7, O'Rourke 6, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gillibrand 1, Hickenlooper 0

CNN has Biden with a 24 point lead over Sanders and the rest of the field is way back.

Morning Consult has Biden with a 14 point lead over the rest.

[Teenwolf]

I’ve tried many. Nothing pleases Nots. He’s like a heckler at a comedy show who only buys the tickets to heckle. OK, I promise to try harder. Trump is my inspiration. Really, if there’s anything he does well, it’s coming up with emasculating nicknames!

BTW, George Conway had a great nickname for Trump that I can’t believe I didn’t use before — Deranged Don!

How about Self-Dealing Donnie... or Dictator Don? I like this one I just thought up: Ghengis Don. I'm sure you could come up with some comparisons to the rape and pillage styles of the two to make the nickname work. It could be workshopped.

Similar pun, you could go with The Wrath of Don, and simply describe things he's done using #wrathofdon... or how about Red Don (I guess this would have worked better if the Russiagate conspiracy had worked out... haha, damn, 1 year late on this nickname.)

I feel like the Twumpy Wumpy shtick is appropriate, but it triggers people to be reminded of what a fucking anti-intellectual buffoon runs the country. I think most posters here are way too concerned with critiquing the tone of others rather than addressing actual points.

Nots, you posted strong content in the 2016 Democratic Primary thread. I posted that Tulsi Gabbard clip after you said you support her. Any thoughts on Tulsi talking about the cannibalism rampant in the Democratic party? I think she's battling with Warren to be Bernie's VP. That far left lane has narrowed to those 3, in my mind.

[nots]

How about Self-Dealing Donnie... or Dictator Don? I like this one I just thought up: Ghengis Don. I'm sure you could come up with some comparisons to the rape and pillage styles of the two to make the nickname work. It could be workshopped.

Similar pun, you could go with The Wrath of Don, and simply describe things he's done using #wrathofdon... or how about Red Don (I guess this would have worked better if the Russiagate conspiracy had worked out... haha, damn, 1 year late on this nickname.)

I feel like the Twumpy Wumpy shtick is appropriate, but it triggers people to be reminded of what a fucking anti-intellectual buffoon runs the country. I think most posters here are way too concerned with critiquing the tone of others rather than addressing actual points.

Nots, you posted strong content in the 2016 Democratic Primary thread. I posted that Tulsi Gabbard clip after you said you support her. Any thoughts on Tulsi talking about the cannibalism rampant in the Democratic party? I think she's battling with Warren to be Bernie's VP. That far left lane has narrowed to those 3, in my mind.

I haven’t watched the clip yet. I think Gabbard is spot on on her anti-interventionist agenda and given her military background, she would have the best (albeit still small) chance of getting our military spending and escapades better under control. I know she has become something of a pariah in the party and amongst the Jacobin set. I think Biden will be the nominee*, and I don’t see him picking her as VP—Harris seems more likely, at least to me.
When stacked against Hillary and Trump, it was pretty easy to support Sanders last time (mostly due to what I believed was his anti-interventionist views). There is a lot I disagree with him on fiscally, but I do think his views are sincere, not something I believed about Clinton. Plus, the DNC treating him poorly or unfairly still bothers me.
*-prediction subject to change as more data and debates get factored in, but as of today, I think he rolls over the field.

[Teenwolf]

First post-Biden declaration poll is not good news for the rest of the field:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	CNN	Biden 39, Sanders 15, Harris 5, Warren 8, Buttigieg 7, O'Rourke 6, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gillibrand 1, Hickenlooper 0

CNN has Biden with a 24 point lead over Sanders and the rest of the field is way back.

Morning Consult has Biden with a 14 point lead over the rest.

Oh wow, President Jeb Bush must be worried.

Polling this far out isn't reliable. Bernie can overcome such a highly compromised candidate as Biden.

Did you see that despite the Firefighters Union endorsement, one of the major corporate bundlers at his kickoff campaign works for a union busting company? Bernie brought this up on CNN, I'm sure he would do the same in a debate.

There's also this snippet from The Intercept:

Former President Barack Obama signed the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014 into law as part of an omnibus spending bill that also rolled back some Dodd-Frank consumer protection regulations on Wall Street and lifted limits on campaign contributions to national political parties. The measure allows sponsors of pension plans who can demonstrate they are in declining or critical financial condition to cut promised workers’ benefits in order to remain solvent.

Thanks to that Obama-era law, members of the Teamsters Local 249 are facing up to 30 percent reductions in their retirement benefits — the type of economic setback prone to produce the anxiety so heavily discussed in 2016. All participants in the plan will have the chance to vote on it, but the Treasury Department has the power to veto that decision if employees reject it. Many unions backed the plan as the only way to save retiree pensions in the long run, but individual workers have expressed frustration when faced with the prospect of cuts and have since called for revisions to the original bill allowing for cutbacks.

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/29/...-pension-cuts/

Biden has glaring vulnerabilities with exactly the demographic that swung to Trump in 2016. Maybe you're right that Biden has the best chance to win the primary (I highly doubt it), but it's 6 weeks until the first of TWELVE debates.... we are less than 4 years from the day Dictator Don rose the escalator and called Mexicans rapists, and was unanimously laughed at as fringe and impossible candidate... it's super duper early. It's about as useful as seeing a tarot card reader at this point. I guess we shall see. But I'm waiting for at least a week after the first 2 day debate until I assess where the field stands at the top. The 2% or under field have to feel their backs against the wall. Hopefully the bottom 12 or so clear out quickly and we see the top go head to head, although I'm pulling for Tulsi to perform well enough for the VP nod if Bernie gets the nomination.

[swampdragon]

... But I'm waiting for at least a week after the first 2 day debate until I assess where the field stands at the top...

[nots]

Oh wow, President Jeb Bush must be worried.

Polling this far out isn't reliable. Bernie can overcome such a highly compromised candidate as Biden.

Did you see that despite the Firefighters Union endorsement, one of the major corporate bundlers at his kickoff campaign works for a union busting company? Bernie brought this up on CNN, I'm sure he would do the same in a debate.

There's also this snippet from The Intercept:



https://theintercept.com/2019/04/29/...-pension-cuts/

Biden has glaring vulnerabilities with exactly the demographic that swung to Trump in 2016. Maybe you're right that Biden has the best chance to win the primary (I highly doubt it), but it's 6 weeks until the first of TWELVE debates.... we are less than 4 years from the day Dictator Don rose the escalator and called Mexicans rapists, and was unanimously laughed at as fringe and impossible candidate... it's super duper early. It's about as useful as seeing a tarot card reader at this point. I guess we shall see. But I'm waiting for at least a week after the first 2 day debate until I assess where the field stands at the top. The 2% or under field have to feel their backs against the wall. Hopefully the bottom 12 or so clear out quickly and we see the top go head to head, although I'm pulling for Tulsi to perform well enough for the VP nod if Bernie gets the nomination.

OK, so maybe the FF’s will be upset about their retirement benefits being cut. Leaving aside there is an enormous underfunded pension problem in the country (I think NJ’s in north of 75B) and at some point all public sector workers are likely to take a haircut, how do you think the FF’s are going to react to the news Bernie wants to take away their collectively bargained for great health care plans and replace with Med4All? My prediction is they aren’t going to be thrilled with that news either. So while Biden takes a knock on the pensions, Sanders et al will have their issues to navigate.

[Teenwolf]

OK, so maybe the FF’s will be upset about their retirement benefits being cut. Leaving aside there is an enormous underfunded pension problem in the country (I think NJ’s in north of 75B) and at some point all public sector workers are likely to take a haircut, how do you think the FF’s are going to react to the news Bernie wants to take away their collectively bargained for great health care plans and replace with Med4All? My prediction is they aren’t going to be thrilled with that news either. So while Biden takes a knock on the pensions, Sanders et al will have their issues to navigate.

Did you see how the crowd at Bernie's Fox News Town Hall responded to giving up their work-related health insurance in favour of Medicare for All? Uproarious applause. I don't think it will be all that hard to convince people "hey, you know that job that you hate, but can't afford to leave because you need the healthcare? Now, you'll have the ability to leave and find a better job or start your own business, all without worrying about losing your healthcare coverage. Sounds like a lot more freedom than the current system, leaving 30 million uninsured, and 10's of millions more unable to use their insurance because they don't have the money." Seems like a winning position to me. I think Biden running against Med4All is political suicide, with 80% of Dems and even 51% of Republicans supporting it. Same with anti-weed, no clue how that helps him more than hurts in today's climate.

[nots]

Did you see how the crowd at Bernie's Fox News Town Hall responded to giving up their work-related health insurance in favour of Medicare for All? Uproarious applause. I don't think it will be all that hard to convince people "hey, you know that job that you hate, but can't afford to leave because you need the healthcare? Now, you'll have the ability to leave and find a better job or start your own business, all without worrying about losing your healthcare coverage. Sounds like a lot more freedom than the current system, leaving 30 million uninsured, and 10's of millions more unable to use their insurance because they don't have the money." Seems like a winning position to me. I think Biden running against Med4All is political suicide, with 80% of Dems and even 51% of Republicans supporting it. Same with anti-weed, no clue how that helps him more than hurts in today's climate.

That wasn’t an audience of union folks that, in many instances, negotiated lower pay for better benefits.
Here’s a recent poll from Kaiser. It does not seem to validate your poll that 80% of Dems and 51% of Reps support Med4All.

https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/

One of the interesting nuggets in that poll is that 55% of people think they will be able to keep their own insurance under Med4All. I think once they learn they can’t, the support is going to erode some.

[Judge Jude]

3 polls. most interesting to me is that the same six candidates got 5+ percent - and that no one else got 3 pct in any of these polls

CNN:::::::::::::::::::::: Biden 39, Bernie 15, Warren 8, Pete 7, Beto 6, Harris 5
Quinnipiac::::::::::::::: Biden 38, Warren 12, Bernie 11, Pete 10, Harris 8, Beto 5
Morning Consult::::::::: Biden 36, Bernie 22, Warren 9, Pete 8, Harris 7, Beto 5

averages: Biden 38, Bernie 16, Warren 10, Pete 8, Harris 7, Beto 5