Election 2020

[swampdragon]

Warren's problem is that she's boring. Beto, Buttigieg, Bernie, even Kamala Harris are not boring.


J

this is the first thing I agree with posted by onejay - after the current idiot as president falls - boring would be a great thing

[onejayhawk]

this is the first thing I agree with posted by onejay - after the current idiot as president falls - boring would be a great thing

I give you the next President of the United States--Ted Cruz.

You knew it wouldn't last, right. Still, I am completely serious. Unless Trump dies in office, Cruz will be next.

J

[Teenwolf]

I understand this is Rasmussen, but not good news for Bernie fans:

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Rasmussen Reports	Sanders 44, Trump 47	Trump +3

How did the polling look for Hillary vs. Jeb in April 2015? I think you are reading too much into general election polling before the primary has even happened. It's incredibly early to think current numbers hold much weight. These candidates still need to make their pitch.

Last Democratic primary, the first debate was in October. This cycle, they have debates in June, July, Sept, Oct, Nov, and up to 12 debates total. I'm excited to see them. I think Bernie has worked hard to address his areas of weakness in 2016, and look forward to him showing his growth as a politician in the debates.

By the way, I went through the first 30 pages of the RJ 2016 Dem primary thread. Man, I miss El Diablo and GITH. I guess I wasn't posting at the time, but Feral Slasher, Nots, baldgriff, and others covered the DNC debacle quite succinctly. Also, GITH announced that Bernie would win when he was down by 30 pts nationally. He came pretty damn close, and he actually nailed the prediction by stating that if mainstream media ignored Bernie, he wouldn't get enough exposure to win. Sure enough, cut to Bernie's biggest 2016 rally and all of MSM were too busy covering a vacant Trump podium instead.

12 debates this time is more than enough runway for Bernie to take the nomination. The funny thing is, I view Sanders having a much tougher fight through the primary than the general. General election, its populism that wins. Bernie has the best chance to steal Trump voters in the general, and definitely the highest chance to turnout the most unlikely voters.

I do also see signs within the polling that I love, such as Bernie's steady climb, and his runaway standing as 2nd choice for Biden and Warren supporters. But I measure these numbers against what I'm seeing from the media on a broader level, and I'm hesitantly optimistic. If propping up losers like Mayor Pete is all they have, they're sunk. Also, Biden is on life support. Despite a small dent in polling, he has been a frequent late night punchline lately, not just SNL. I hope he enters to get absolutely trampled. That's how confident I am that he's toast, I prefer him entering.

[DMT]

I understand this is Rasmussen, but not good news for Bernie fans:

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Rasmussen Reports	Sanders 44, Trump 47	Trump +3

Total outlier and Rasmussen has a history of skewing Republican, right?

[Judge Jude]

" ..... is on life support. Despite a small dent in polling, he has been a frequent late night punchline lately, not just SNL. I hope he enters to get absolutely trampled. That's how confident I am that he's toast, I prefer him entering."

Hillary? is that you from 2015?

[revo]

Total outlier and Rasmussen has a history of skewing Republican, right?

It does, sometimes badly.

Latest National polls also show a tightening up. But how bout that Mayor Pete?:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 53, Trump 47	Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Emerson	Sanders 51, Trump 48	Sanders +3
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke	Emerson	O'Rourke 51, Trump 49	O'Rourke +2
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	Emerson	Harris 50, Trump 50	Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	Emerson	Trump 52, Warren 48	Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	Emerson	Trump 51, Buttigieg 49	Trump +2

[Teenwolf]

" ..... is on life support. Despite a small dent in polling, he has been a frequent late night punchline lately, not just SNL. I hope he enters to get absolutely trampled. That's how confident I am that he's toast, I prefer him entering."

Hillary? is that you from 2015?

This is the ghost of Judge Jude, talking about Bernie having no chance, in 2015, sounding a lot like Hillary at the time.

"Bernie wants us to emulate Denmark, which resonates with almost what, 10 percent of the country? and they have nothing in common with us. you can pick one or two elements of other country decision-making, but don't ask American voters to just follow the leader."

You realize in the last 4 years, Sanders has grown support for all of his major policy positions into wide majority support, right? Even Med4All now polls as a net positive with Republicans, let alone near universal support from Democrats.
I think your 10% is closer to 90 than 10.

[Judge Jude]

HOLY CRAP - Bernie is LIVE on Fox News!

it's a Town Hall, 90 minutes - and it started 20 minutes ago

hosts are Bret Baier and Martha McCallum who I think are supposed to be pretty sane

EDIT: this is actually pretty good batting practice for Bernie. they're hitting him with bland right-wing talking points.

he whiffed on one - a claim that Vermont went single-payer and then the Democratic Governor got rid of it (don't hold me to the details because I'm not familiar with the issue. but all Bernie said was something something Vermont internal politics, basically. it may be true, but it was not a good look).

then he got the old "how are you going to PAY for Medicare for all?"
he's admitting that taxes will go up, but says not having deductibles and co-pays etc will more than make up for it for "the vast majority of Americans."

I wonder if he is privately pissed at Obama, because of what we only later learned was a deliberate lie - admitted by Obama's own experts - about the average American family saving $2,500 a year or whatever with Obamacare.

well, we know how that turned out (and they knew how it would turn out).

my point isn't that it's bound to happen again with Berniecare - but that wishy-washy voter X who isn't inclined to go into details is going to hear a (loud) echo of the Obamacare sales pitch.

so if Berniecare actually would do what it claims, then he will be getting unfairly tarred with the same brush.

I'm open to the idea, and if he gets the nomination, I'll kick the tires on it. what we have now, ain't working so great (nor was it before Obamacare).

more: ok, Bernie has his swing down now - hitting on bad trade deals, whacking away the "if the unemployment rate is so low, who not keep Trump" query, and especially hitting on the "Don't you care about our national debt?" toss by Baier.

"I think you're asking the wrong guy," said Bernie, referring to Trump. well played.
and he says he does care about the debt, we'll actually save money on Berniecare, and so on.

I just think about that 20+ candidate field and wonder if anyone at all can not get lost in the crowd.

MORE: I could swear I'm watching Bernie compete in a general election debate.

he gets with the old "do you think that arriving migrants should be sent to sanctuary cities" angle.

he deflects a bit with how these are people fleeing violence, want a better life for their families, not trying to sneak over the border illegally, etc.
all good, but he falls into the "don't demonize these people" part of the stock response - except McCallum wasn't doing that.

she basically said they have to go somewhere, he says why not more facilities along the border, she says so then border states have to take this all on themselves? he needs to work on that one a little bit. wait, he does says of course he supports border security (as kind of a DUH, but on the far fringes)

audience member there in Bethlehem, Pa. says he is Syrian-American, wonders if Bernie like others will just wind up as "a cog in the war machine."

Bernie wallops that one, reminding all that he voted AGAINST the Iraq war resolution in 2003 (I think we would be talking about Hillary's re-election campaign these days if she hadn't muffed that one). bonus points for sponsoring a just-passed bipartisan resolution - with Utah R Mike Lee - saying we need to get out of Yemen.

I think plenty of Fox fans might go for that - they must like Lee plenty.

one other point: Bernie started by saying basically, "Trump - yeah, we know. but if all we do is talk about Trump, we lose."

during the immigration part, you could see he was about to throw some Molotov cocktails Trump's way - but he then he thought better of it (do handlers have invisible shock collars for candidates yet? something worked). that was smart.

says he does support "right of rapists and murderers to vote."
it's an interesting debate for political science and sociology majors, and not even a rounding error in real life either way. might not test well in focus groups, and Trump would hang that around his neck like an anvil, I'm afraid.

is asked why he doesn't talk much about the Mueller investigation, amusingly responds, "because everyone else is talking about it."

finally, apparently Teenwolf has an inside line to McCallum, because she asks: "Joe Biden - is he a progressive?"
Bernie doesn't take the bait while not seeming defensive about it.

the Bernie backers in the audience - I appreciate their sincerity as genuine, no question. but in a diverse audience like this, where people are trying to get info, they are a distraction. asking about Bernie being Jewish, can he see why many Jews are uncomfortable with comments by Rep. Omar - this is good. "woo hoos" at the mere mention of Omar's name - kind of annoying, albeit unintentionally.

and kudos to Bernie and to Fox News for this event. is there hope for us after all?

[Teenwolf]

This is the ghost of Judge Jude, talking about Bernie having no chance, in 2015, sounding a lot like Hillary at the time.

"Bernie wants us to emulate Denmark, which resonates with almost what, 10 percent of the country? and they have nothing in common with us. you can pick one or two elements of other country decision-making, but don't ask American voters to just follow the leader."

You realize in the last 4 years, Sanders has grown support for all of his major policy positions into wide majority support, right? Even Med4All now polls as a net positive with Republicans, let alone near universal support from Democrats.
I think your 10% is closer to 90 than 10.

Sorry JJ, I was arguing with your post from 2015, I see you've evolved.

[Teenwolf]

HOLY CRAP - Bernie is LIVE on Fox News!

it's a Town Hall, 90 minutes - and it started 20 minutes ago

hosts are Bret Baier and Martha McCallum who I think are supposed to be pretty sane

EDIT: this is actually pretty good batting practice for Bernie. they're hitting him with bland right-wing talking points.

he whiffed on one - a claim that Vermont went single-payer and then the Democratic Governor got rid of it (don't hold me to the details because I'm not familiar with the issue. but all Bernie said was something something Vermont internal politics, basically. it may be true, but it was not a good look).

then he got the old "how are you going to PAY for Medicare for all?"
he's admitting that taxes will go up, but says not having deductibles and co-pays etc will more than make up for it for "the vast majority of Americans."

I wonder if he is privately pissed at Obama, because of what we only later learned was a deliberate lie - admitted by Obama's own experts - about the average American family saving $2,500 a year or whatever with Obamacare.

well, we know how that turned out (and they knew how it would turn out).

my point isn't that it's bound to happen again with Berniecare - but that wishy-washy voter X who isn't inclined to go into details is going to hear a (loud) echo of the Obamacare sales pitch.

so if Berniecare actually would do what it claims, then he will be getting unfairly tarred with the same brush.

I'm open to the idea, and if he gets the nomination, I'll kick the tires on it. what we have now, ain't working so great (nor was it before Obamacare).

more: ok, Bernie has his swing down now - hitting on bad trade deals, whacking away the "if the unemployment rate is so low, who not keep Trump" query, and especially hitting on the "Don't you care about our national debt?" toss by Baier.

"I think you're asking the wrong guy," said Bernie, referring to Trump. well played.
and he says he does care about the debt, we'll actually save money on Berniecare, and so on.

I just think about that 20+ candidate field and wonder if anyone at all can not get lost in the crowd.

MORE: I could swear I'm watching Bernie compete in a general election debate.

he gets with the old "do you think that arriving migrants should be sent to sanctuary cities" angle.

he deflects a bit with how these are people fleeing violence, want a better life for their families, not trying to sneak over the border illegally, etc.
all good, but he falls into the "don't demonize these people" part of the stock response - except McCallum wasn't doing that.

she basically said they have to go somewhere, he says why not more facilities along the border, she says so then border states have to take this all on themselves? he needs to work on that one a little bit. wait, he does says of course he supports border security (as kind of a DUH, but on the far fringes)

audience member there in Bethlehem, Pa. says he is Syrian-American, wonders if Bernie like others will just wind up as "a cog in the war machine."

Bernie wallops that one, reminding all that he voted AGAINST the Iraq war resolution in 2003 (I think we would be talking about Hillary's re-election campaign these days if she hadn't muffed that one). bonus points for sponsoring a just-passed bipartisan resolution - with Utah R Mike Lee - saying we need to get out of Yemen.

I think plenty of Fox fans might go for that - they must like Lee plenty.

one other point: Bernie started by saying basically, "Trump - yeah, we know. but if all we do is talk about Trump, we lose."

during the immigration part, you could see he was about to throw some Molotov cocktails Trump's way - but he then he thought better of it (do handlers have invisible shock collars for candidates yet? something worked). that was smart.

says he does support "right of rapists and murderers to vote."
it's an interesting debate for political science and sociology majors, and not even a rounding error in real life either way. might not test well in focus groups, and Trump would hang that around his neck like an anvil, I'm afraid.

is asked why he doesn't talk much about the Mueller investigation, amusingly responds, "because everyone else is talking about it."

finally, apparently Teenwolf has an inside line to McCallum, because she asks: "Joe Biden - is he a progressive?"
Bernie doesn't take the bait while not seeming defensive about it.

the Bernie backers in the audience - I appreciate their sincerity as genuine, no question. but in a diverse audience like this, where people are trying to get info, they are a distraction. asking about Bernie being Jewish, can he see why many Jews are uncomfortable with comments by Rep. Omar - this is good. "woo hoos" at the mere mention of Omar's name - kind of annoying, albeit unintentionally.

and kudos to Bernie and to Fox News for this event. is there hope for us after all?

I appreciate this running commentary. I highlighted some points.

Yes, Sanders is honing his general election attack. His Trump mentions are sporadic but effective. He is clearly aware of folks evaluating general election viability, and wants to show off how he would pummel Trump.

Also, I'm amazed at how far you've moved on Medicare for All. From 4 years ago saying Bernie represented less than 10% of the country to now seeing it as realistic, Sanders has shifted public opinion substantially.

[gcstomp]

really positive Bernie appearance on Fox. He handled what were slanted leadinq questions with ease, won over crowd, and showed why he is leading declared candidate. Mayor Pete had a net net positive on Maddow, who did him no favors by delving into his coming out as gay at a late age contrasted with her coming out early in life as 1st openly gay Rhodes scholar. He comes across as super sharp, earnest, charismatic, but good gravy he is young. Biden is polling in lead of everyone without having officially declared as of yet. All good candidates as we are in stage where we should be open, listening, weighing how not only policies may align with our world views and election viability but appreciating we are miles to go. As Obama pointedly said, we should not have a circular firing squad, there will be plenty of time to rip down.

[Teenwolf]

really positive Bernie appearance on Fox. He handled what were slanted leadinq questions with ease, won over crowd, and showed why he is leading declared candidate. Mayor Pete had a net net positive on Maddow, who did him no favors by delving into his coming out as gay at a late age contrasted with her coming out early in life as 1st openly gay Rhodes scholar. He comes across as super sharp, earnest, charismatic, but good gravy he is young. Biden is polling in lead of everyone without having officially declared as of yet. All good candidates as we are in stage where we should be open, listening, weighing how not only policies may align with our world views and election viability but appreciating we are miles to go. As Obama pointedly said, we should not have a circular firing squad, there will be plenty of time to rip down.

Bernie has moved ahead of Biden in the monthly Emerson poll, now up 29% to Biden's 24%. Moving from -10 to +5 vs Biden in 2 months is a big jump.

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/emerson-april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-move-booker-2/

[B-Fly]

I think Bernie Sanders is showing as someone more than capable of winning the nomination and the election. At this stage, I don't think dismissing Sanders on grounds of "electability" is supported by the evidence.

[Teenwolf]

Did anybody see Bernie punch back against Center for American Progress this week?

ThinkProgress, which is run by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, last week published a video criticizing Sanders for being a millionaire and suggesting his stances on income inequality are hypocritical.

Citing the video, Sanders said in a letter to CAP on Saturday that the group has unfairly criticized him. He also accused the think tank of being unfair to fellow 2020 candidates Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

"I and other Democratic candidates are running campaigns based on principles and ideas and not engaging in mudslinging or personal attacks on each other.

"Meanwhile, the Center for American Progress is using its resources to smear Senator Booker, Senator Warren, and myself, among others. This is hardly the way to build unity, or to win the general election," he added.

CAP responded Sunday by saying it will not "muzzle" the journalists at ThinkProgress.

Sanders is smart to include Warren and Booker, so it doesn't come across as whining, but he makes a good point for those who love to hear Obama talk about circular firing squads.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/438972-center-for-american-progress-ceo-calls-video-criticizing-sanders-overly-harsh

[B-Fly]

Did anybody see Bernie punch back against Center for American Progress this week?



Sanders is smart to include Warren and Booker, so it doesn't come across as whining, but he makes a good point for those who love to hear Obama talk about circular firing squads.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4...s-overly-harsh

I'm 100% with Sanders on this. Defeating Trump is far too important for Democrats/liberals/progressives to take nasty pot shots at any of our candidates. Debate policy or even electability, but without slandering the candidates.