Election 2020

[The Feral Slasher]

I can see that, but a lot of these folks I'm reading and viewing and listening to are progressive/left leaning, or people who claim to be, even while also being well off.

I also wasn't trying to claim that individuals couldn't be pro-Sanders or neutral. I simply expect that overall amongst corporate media there would be some degree of negative bias. Anyway, it doesn't matter much

[Kevin Seitzer]

Go away few days and ten pages of nothing much pops up.

UVa has an article by Alan Abramowitz attempting to predict the electoral vote based on two primary factors--the economy and His approval rating. Results range from certain defeat to landslide victory, as one might expect. This is not new, but here is his version

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-chances-forecasting-the-2020-presidential-election/

The most plausible prediction at this point, however, is for a very close contest. Given a net approval rating of -10, approximately where Trump’s approval rating has been stuck for most of the past year, and real GDP growth of between 1% to 2%, in line with most recent economic forecasts, the model predicts that he would receive between 263 and 283 electoral votes. Of course, it takes 270 electoral votes to win.

I am skeptical for three reasons. First and most important is the unique level of media opposition. Second is the generational divide within the Democratic party. Third is the quality, or lack of it, of the eventual opponent. Still, all of that probably slides the scale only 20 votes or so.

J

Fourth, and most important, is that models like this are completely unreliable, primarily because they are built on so few data points (fewer than 20 elections) and with the highly questionable assumption that the dynamics of the presidential election process haven't changed over that time period in any way that would significantly impact the reliability of the model.

This is a problem not only with the Abramowitz model but also would apply to others like Nate Silver's at 538.

I wrestle with this kind of question in my day job when I have to decide, for example, whether statistics accumulated during the steroid era can be used to predict aging curves for players in the future. And in some cases what to do with data collected on a few tens or hundreds of players instead of on many thousands of players.

[Teenwolf]

Fourth, and most important, is that models like this are completely unreliable, primarily because they are built on so few data points (fewer than 20 elections) and with the highly questionable assumption that the dynamics of the presidential election process haven't changed over that time period in any way that would significantly impact the reliability of the model.

This is a problem not only with the Abramowitz model but also would apply to others like Nate Silver's at 538.

I wrestle with this kind of question in my day job when I have to decide, for example, whether statistics accumulated during the steroid era can be used to predict aging curves for players in the future. And in some cases what to do with data collected on a few tens or hundreds of players instead of on many thousands of players.

This was great, thanks for the added detail about evaluating players based on era. I heard a similar comparison made between mainstream media and and the old school scouts in moneyball. OBP is equivalent to populist messaging. Most pundits/coaches undervalue these elements, but they win. Baseball adapted. Democrats have yet to adapt.

[onejayhawk]

Fourth, and most important, is that models like this are completely unreliable, primarily because they are built on so few data points (fewer than 20 elections) and with the highly questionable assumption that the dynamics of the presidential election process haven't changed over that time period in any way that would significantly impact the reliability of the model.

This is a problem not only with the Abramowitz model but also would apply to others like Nate Silver's at 538.

I wrestle with this kind of question in my day job when I have to decide, for example, whether statistics accumulated during the steroid era can be used to predict aging curves for players in the future. And in some cases what to do with data collected on a few tens or hundreds of players instead of on many thousands of players.

I would not say completely. It provides a solid baseline from very limited information. It's like the first run of computer projections when we project baseball players.

J

[B-Fly]

This was great, thanks for the added detail about evaluating players based on era. I heard a similar comparison made between mainstream media and and the old school scouts in moneyball. OBP is equivalent to populist messaging. Most pundits/coaches undervalue these elements, but they win. Baseball adapted. Democrats have yet to adapt.

So you're saying Bernie Sanders is the Democratic Jeremy Brown?

[TranaGreg]

It provides a solid baseline from very limited information.
J

I think KS's main point tho, and I completely agree, is that this is an oxymoron - it may be the best possible baseline, but statistically it can't be a solid baseline.

[Teenwolf]

Holy shit you guys... this Biden trainwreck needs to end. What in the actual fuck?!!

Joking about consent to touch people for cheap laughs... twice!! Maybe you guys still think he's honorable or whatever, but do you honestly think he's the safe pick? Do you think Joe Gaffe-again is capable of making 1 public appearance without lighting himself on fire??? What an idiot. Even I'm surprised by this level of stupidity.

Did you hear that 2 more women came forward to raise the total to 7? You still think this is nothing? Kisses, rubbing backs, thighs, noses, bodies. He keeps talking about his intentions, as if impact means nothing. He literally said today that he's not sorry for anything he's done!

Yet you see a reaction video on Meet The Press where they have 4 fucking morons unanimously declare that when Biden runs, he will win. You still think there's no media bias?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Holy shit you guys... this Biden trainwreck needs to end. What in the actual fuck?!!

Joking about consent to touch people for cheap laughs... twice!! Maybe you guys still think he's honorable or whatever, but do you honestly think he's the safe pick? Do you think Joe Gaffe-again is capable of making 1 public appearance without lighting himself on fire??? What an idiot. Even I'm surprised by this level of stupidity.

Did you hear that 2 more women came forward to raise the total to 7? You still think this is nothing? Kisses, rubbing backs, thighs, noses, bodies. He keeps talking about his intentions, as if impact means nothing. He literally said today that he's not sorry for anything he's done!

Yet you see a reaction video on Meet The Press where they have 4 fucking morons unanimously declare that when Biden runs, he will win. You still think there's no media bias?

I don't understand why you keep acting like the Rotojunkie posting community speaks for the Biden campaign and needs to address his character or his misdeeds.

I personally am waiting to see how the Democratic field pans out. I don't vote for another 11 months. I have plenty of time to decide. Just because I don't stand up in here and yell at Biden until you feel pleased doesn't mean anything. You seem to be taking affront at a lot of other posters in here who are similarly noncommittal at this point in the campaign. It's one thing to discuss it as a matter of political interest, or even on the level of issues that one is passionate about, but for you it seems personal, very personal, and it's taken the discussion in a direction that is not fun to participate in at all.

You act like everyone in here hates Bernie, which is...kind of weird. I voted for Bernie three years ago. (I think a lot of other posters here did, too.) I might do the same next year. I don't know. I don't have to decide yet. I'm personally invested in the future of the country, but I'm not personally invested in a candidate yet. Your level of vitriol at non-Bernie candidates is frankly somewhat off-putting for whatever affinity I may have for Bernie.

[Teenwolf]

I'm just pointing out how all of the massive vulnerabilities about Biden that I brought up over a year ago are all becoming clearly crippling liabilities. Isn't that what the primary season is supposed to be about?

[The Feral Slasher]

Holy shit you guys... this Biden trainwreck needs to end. What in the actual fuck?!!

Joking about consent to touch people for cheap laughs... twice!! Maybe you guys still think he's honorable or whatever, but do you honestly think he's the safe pick? Do you think Joe Gaffe-again is capable of making 1 public appearance without lighting himself on fire??? What an idiot. Even I'm surprised by this level of stupidity.

Did you hear that 2 more women came forward to raise the total to 7? You still think this is nothing? Kisses, rubbing backs, thighs, noses, bodies. He keeps talking about his intentions, as if impact means nothing. He literally said today that he's not sorry for anything he's done!

Yet you see a reaction video on Meet The Press where they have 4 fucking morons unanimously declare that when Biden runs, he will win. You still think there's no media bias?

I'm not sure it matters how many people come forward. It is what it is, i'm no Biden fan but his behavior was more or less consistent and not anything that I would think rises to the level of disqualifying. I've got better reasons to not like him. I'm happy to let this die unless there is some new more troubling info that surfaces.

[Teenwolf]

I'm not sure it matters how many people come forward. It is what it is, i'm no Biden fan but his behavior was more or less consistent and not anything that I would think rises to the level of disqualifying. I've got better reasons to not like him. I'm happy to let this die unless there is some new more troubling info that surfaces.

The new info is that he got up on a stage and made 2 awful attempts at joking about it, just days after expressing some contrition. It shows a lack of awareness.

Seeing him look around for that boy to pull close to serve the purpose of his cheap joke is firstly, super pathetic, and secondly, incredibly tone-deaf.

We agree the rest of his record is more problematic, but I think its foolish to dismiss this, especially when Biden cannot do or say the right things. Honestly, a 19 year old girl at a sexual assault event, resting his hand on her thigh? He doesn't apologize for anything he's done.

Maybe I take these transgressions more seriously than others here because of my own history. I recognize this isn't sexual assault, but these are serious transgressions worthy of genuine soul searching and genuine apology. Not cheap jokes and absolute unwillingness to apologize. That's what set me off. He is completely lacking respect for those he has harmed, and definitively proved it again today.

[onejayhawk]

Joe Biden is still the horrible candidate he was the last two times he ran. Not news.

J

[nots]

Interesting take on Mayor Pete’s electability:

https://nypost.com/2019/04/06/how-pete-buttigieg-could-beat-trump-in-his-bases-backyard/

[Judge Jude]

will Obama get much pushback on this, or is he on safe ground with a typical progressive?
as they say on bad sports talk radio, "I'll hang up and wait for your response."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/obama-warns-progressives-avoid-circular-195711621.html

"Barack Obama has urged progressives in the US to avoid becoming part of a “circular firing squad” that takes aim at people who do not share all their views.

In what will be interpreted as a comment about the nature of the rivalry between different factions within the Democratic Party, the former president stressed the need for compromise.

“The way we structure democracy requires you to take into account people who don’t agree with you,” he said at an event in Berlin hosted by the Obama Foundation. “And that, by definition, means you’re not going to get 100 per cent of what you want.”

According to The Hill, he added: “One of the things I do worry about sometimes among progressives in the United States….is a certain kind of rigidity where we say, ‘Uh, I’m sorry, this is how it’s going to be’, and then we start sometimes creating what’s called a “circular firing squad”, where you start shooting at your allies because one of them has strayed from purity on the issues.

“And when that happens, typically the overall effort and movement weakens.”

[DMT]

Obama is right.