Election 2020

[The Feral Slasher]

Lots of interesting things to respond to, if I have a chance I'll post later. But regarding a one or two percentage point difference in polls -- if I recall correctly Sanders had a much bigger advantage than that when compared to Clinton, but that didn't matter to Clinton supporters, and I don't suspect Biden having slightly better polls at this point matters at all to Sanders supporters.

http://time.com/4305514/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-general-election-polls/

[revo]

The state probably has something to do with it too. Michigan can go either way and has a lot of moderate Democrats, which makes the more moderate somewhat more appealing in this kind of poll. I'd like to see how other states are polling. Also, the most liberal/progressive section of Michigan, from my experience there, is the college town of Ann Arbor, where many of the voters may actually be registered in other states as out of town students. I assume the poll accounts for this and tries to not poll students who are actually registered in other states, but it could help explain a moderate doing better.

Are there recent polls in more progressive states? I'm curious how the more moderate vs. the more progressive is fairing in those polls.

A bunch have already been posted in here, just go back a few pages.

Here are the recent ones for just Biden:
Iowa: Biden 49, Trump 47
North Caroiina: Trump 43, Biden 39
Arizona: Biden 46, Trump 46
New Hampshire: Biden 55, Trump 45
Texas: Biden 47, Trump 46
S. Carolina: Trump 52, Biden 48

[The Feral Slasher]

That is a loaded Hmmm, there . I would be interested in hearing from the more progressive voices here on their interpretation of these numbers. I know the knee jerk reaction is we tried a moderate with HRC and it didn't work, but that is not evidence of the lack of electability of a moderate, and HRC had special, one could say unique, baggage. And I know one might also point out that Obama's compromised health care reform shows the futility of electing someone who does not fight for more radical changes. Those two examples represent different arguments. Focusing on HRC seems to be a focus on electablity, which I care a lot about at the moment. But focusing on Obama's tenure seems to focus more on the idea of "what do we win if we win?" argument. That is a good argument to make, but I'd really like to hear feedback on these poll numbers first.

I have in mind that old business adage about serving both your business and social causes--that you have to make it first before you make a difference. If a more progressive candidate isn't as electable, that is a concern to me. Do advocates of more progressive candidates think these poll numbers show a national preference for moderates, as it seems to, or do you think something is missing from this data? Is it at all concerning to you that progressive seem to have a tighter race with Trump than moderates?

In my opinion 2-4 percentage points is way too small a difference to draw any conclusions more than a year and a half before the election. There is plenty of time to figure out the odds of any particular Democratic candidate beating Trump, assuming Trump is even going to be running (Ive been told he will be in jail). There will be a lot of consolidation and events this year which which may clear things up or we may still have lot of questions. But concluding that Biden is a better bet to win (or Sanders) at this point just doesn't make sense to me. Give all the candidates there chance, plenty of time to figure it out

[The Feral Slasher]

I think the Michigan Poll is way more important than the progressive/liberal states in how the Democrats beat Trump. There has been a lot of conversation from some of the more liberal RJ'ers that believe the Democratice Party should be endorsing someone from the progressive/liberal end of the party. I, and some others, have stated that to beat Trump, you have to win the moderates and the Michigan Poll bears that out.

I'm not saying the Democrats shouldn't at some point look to a more liberal candidate, but 2020 isn't the year. Find someone that can connect with moderates and disenfrancised Republicans and please take down Trump in the election, then look to 2024 to move further left.

There are many who would rather sip the poison they are already drinking than an unknown that might kill them instantly.

It may end up being true that a moderate will have a better chance in 2020, but I don't think that is a valid conclusion from one poll in Michigan at this point in time.

[DMT]

In my opinion 2-4 percentage points is way too small a difference to draw any conclusions more than a year and a half before the election. There is plenty of time to figure out the odds of any particular Democratic candidate beating Trump, assuming Trump is even going to be running (Ive been told he will be in jail). There will be a lot of consolidation and events this year which which may clear things up or we may still have lot of questions. But concluding that Biden is a better bet to win (or Sanders) at this point just doesn't make sense to me. Give all the candidates there chance, plenty of time to figure it out

Totally agree.

[Teenwolf]

Biden 2020: "Sip the poison you're already drinking"

I love how things are going for Bernie. I've been horrified at the clips of Biden from his past. I've also been shocked and amazed by Bernie's dipping his toe in the water of identity politics, which will be needed to get the mainstream media identity politic folks on board... and find his immediate direct attacks on Trump as a very strong signal that he's trying to demonstrate his general election feasibility. Also have to love Bernie getting triple the votes of Warren. Her votes would definitely shift even more support behind Sanders.

Biden '20 = Jeb '16... except this time around, I bet the billionaire class are less willing to burn their money supporting him. This is why he's stalled so long to enter the race.

If reality slaps me in the face, and we see president Harris or Klobuchar or Biden or whoever, then fine, I will admit that I was wrong. I eagerly await the start of debates.

I'm also curious, do you guys not see the same headlines I do? The Biden clips talking about denying school segregation from 1975? Talking about the '93 crime bill and bragging that he had increased the number of crimes punishable by death up to 51 distinct crimes, bragging that anything beyond jay-walking could get you the death penalty? Talking on a stage a few weeks ago about how Mike Pence is "a good guy"? It's a doomed campaign. Just my opinion. Should be fun to watch it all unfold.

[The Feral Slasher]

Biden 2020: "Sip the poison you're already drinking"

I love how things are going for Bernie. I've been horrified at the clips of Biden from his past. I've also been shocked and amazed by Bernie's dipping his toe in the water of identity politics, which will be needed to get the mainstream media identity politic folks on board... and find his immediate direct attacks on Trump as a very strong signal that he's trying to demonstrate his general election feasibility. Also have to love Bernie getting triple the votes of Warren. Her votes would definitely shift even more support behind Sanders.

Biden '20 = Jeb '16... except this time around, I bet the billionaire class are less willing to burn their money supporting him. This is why he's stalled so long to enter the race.

If reality slaps me in the face, and we see president Harris or Klobuchar or Biden or whoever, then fine, I will admit that I was wrong. I eagerly await the start of debates.

I'm also curious, do you guys not see the same headlines I do? The Biden clips talking about denying school segregation from 1975? Talking about the '93 crime bill and bragging that he had increased the number of crimes punishable by death up to 51 distinct crimes, bragging that anything beyond jay-walking could get you the death penalty? Talking on a stage a few weeks ago about how Mike Pence is "a good guy"? It's a doomed campaign. Just my opinion. Should be fun to watch it all unfold.

I don't know, I think the billionaire class will be all in if it comes down to fighting against a Sanders presidency. Probably true all the way down from exceedingly wealthy, wealthy all the way to upper middle class. Sanders has his work cut out to win over people with large incomes. It's a tough sell to people who are very comfortable with the way things are right now

[Sour Masher]

I'm not sure who will emerge, but Biden does have some baggage that would weigh him down against most opponents.

[DMT]

I'm not sure who will emerge, but Biden does have some baggage that would weigh him down against most opponents.

Dragging stuff up that he said 25 years ago isn't going to sway many people who weren't going to vote for him anyways IMO.

[Sour Masher]

Dragging stuff up that he said 25 years ago isn't going to sway many people who weren't going to vote for him anyways IMO.

Well, some of it is still cringe worthy. Also, I know this is a long dead horse, but the ages of the leading candidates scare me. Dems have recent history of winning with young dudes. BETO fits that bill. Then again, I'm not sure a candidate in his 70s ever had as much 9f the youth vote as Sanders has. The kids loved him.

[Teenwolf]

Dragging stuff up that he said 25 years ago isn't going to sway many people who weren't going to vote for him anyways IMO.

His gaffes are both historical and ongoing.

Complimenting Mike Pence on his moral character is an unforced error, and that's not even a policy issue, that's his 1990's thinking that promising to work towards bi-partisan compromise is a winning strategy. He is a dinosaur. His record is terrible, whereas Bernie was saying everything that he's saying now about wealth inequality in the early 80's. That gives him credit for being right, and believability because he's never wavered.

Andrew Yang is a bigger threat to Bernie than Biden, imo, because they're fighting for the same base. Yang made strong appearances on Joe Rogan and Breakfast Club, and UBI could be the one policy that could pull voters away from Sanders within the progressive base of the party.

[In the Corn]

Why were Obama and Hillary given passes when their position evolved, but Biden and others get no such mercy/pass?

[The Feral Slasher]

His gaffes are both historical and ongoing.

Complimenting Mike Pence on his moral character is an unforced error, and that's not even a policy issue, that's his 1990's thinking that promising to work towards bi-partisan compromise is a winning strategy. He is a dinosaur. His record is terrible, whereas Bernie was saying everything that he's saying now about wealth inequality in the early 80's. That gives him credit for being right, and believability because he's never wavered.

Andrew Yang is a bigger threat to Bernie than Biden, imo, because they're fighting for the same base. Yang made strong appearances on Joe Rogan and Breakfast Club, and UBI could be the one policy that could pull voters away from Sanders within the progressive base of the party.

Your quote reminded me of this article I saw a few days ago. I used to read Brad DeLong's blog until I couldn't take it anymore.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong

[Teenwolf]

Why were Obama and Hillary given passes when their position evolved, but Biden and others get no such mercy/pass?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... you'll never get fooled again.

The age of the horoscope President (project your own values onto them), is over. Obama/Hillary are the exact reason you have Trump. Voters won't allow another neo-liberal to win the primary, only to nosedive and crash and burn.

[Teenwolf]

Your quote reminded me of this article I saw a few days ago. I used to read Brad DeLong's blog until I couldn't take it anymore.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ft-brad-delong

Fantastic article filled with everything I've been saying.

Obama's centrist compromises were spat on, and gave Republicans the incentive to be the obstructionist assholes they are today, because it worked! Never again.