Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

Trump has been sowing the "Democrats are the next communists" for three years now with the Cuban and Venezuelan voters in S. Florida (who it obviously hits close to home with). I am fairly sure that no Dem candidate would have done any better in this area of the country, and with Sanders/Warren the narrative might have been more negative.

This is not representative of all latino voters, but certainly for this subset in this area of the country.

Sorry I know I never post politics, but this was on my mind as I lurked.

Yeah, a guy in my league is Cuban. He now lives in Texas, but he is from Miami. He voted for Trump. I love the guy so avoid this subject, but went down the rabbit hole texting today. He is afraid his entire paycheck will now be gone, because Biden will triple his taxes. He is afraid that Biden is a puppet of AOC and a secret socialist. He associates the Dems with Castro. He didn't even know that the Senate is likely to stay red or what they would even mean. I tried to explain that even if Biden's tax plan were to affect him (it would not, really, even if it were passed), it won't get done, but the way the Senate and executive branch work were lost on him. I didn't want to get into it, but glad I did, because it helps me see how a lot of Trump voters may be great people that just are totally blind to what I see when I see Trump. He only sees a sore loser who tweets too much, but was great for the economy and was an outsider that told the truth and didn't start a war. He believes the Dems are radical left. What can you do with that?

[DMT]

Nothing, plus you've got the far left calling them Republican-lite. Pretty much a no-win situation.

[frae]

GA lead for Trump is down to about 3600 votes and still enough votes outstanding in the ATL area counties that I think he will pass him now. It will be close, but I think it is not exactly FL 2000 close, but maybe.

[fuhrdog]

I didn't think I could actually hate Trump more than I do already...his "speech" tonight left me speechless. I wish him a most painful death.

[nullnor]

it might be worth wondering why a split government is seen as favorable by the stock market.

that's an easy one. it makes it more predictable. spilt government winnows gridlock. thus, the current investing economic pattern likely continues. for example lowering the corporate tax rate from the 30's to freaking 21% caused everyone's EPS to go up. you could make an argument the market should've skyrocketed. if Biden wins and raises it to 28% EPS immediately goes down, and even tanks under the current lockdown situations. there wouldn't be just a correction, there would be an overcorrection or a slaughter. with a split government which is a so-called natural state, things remain the same. as a result, there is no comeuppance from over-exuberance from either side of the short and long isle.

[frae]

Just to show why I am feeling really good, we got a dump of about 2700 votes from Forsyth County GA just now and while the county voted 66/32 for Trump, Biden actually won these 2700 votes by about 1400-1300 so even overwhelming Trump counties with any mail vote are coming in for Biden.

That same thing is happening in PA but even on a bigger scale as Biden is winning almost every county by 7/10 and places like Philly and Pittsburgh by 8/10 or 9/10. I think Biden sweeps all the uncalled states but NC.

[nullnor]

Trump garnered the 2nd highest vote in history. the 51st vote strategy won't be abandoned, it'll be doubled down. Trumpism is here forever now. he's a reality TV star, he'll make more money from his brand than any other ex-president. afterwards, he'll never be in financial debt. he'll be the richest ex-president that ever lived. he'll forever be the leader of the so-called opposition. if anyone thinks he can do more damage in office, you haven't seen anything yet. what amazes me is the GOP is his really his party now. you can say a lot of things but he did it. which just goes to show how fatal and delicate our political future is; and how low the bar always was.

[nullnor]

I see now why the Senate exists the way it does. where just a handful of senators can control the debate. where the minority can overrule the majority. when you look at a map of voters, and the entire map seems to be red, except for small geographical areas of blue waves. I suppose the blue counties are the future economic areas. but those sparsely populated red areas feed the country. they provide the food, and the gas, and the essentials the blue areas need to survive. which is the reason for the electoral college and why relying on just the popular vote if myopic. when the superstorm Hurricane Sandy hit NY, all gas in the red states focused on transferring their resources to NY. because in the blue states, we can expand the economy, but we can't keep ourselves warm, or cool or feed ourselves without the red state's help. maybe California can. but the rest of the blue states are lost without the red states providing us with basic necessities. this is why the founding fathers set up the Senate with 2 representatives from every state. and why some states with such a small electoral vote have such power.

abandoning the electoral vote is tantamount to starvation.

[nullnor]

all it would take is one earthquake and tsunami to wipe out the entire map of blue states. and someday it's going to happen. that would take some interesting gerrymandering.

[nullnor]

in 2013 a forest being cleared had one tree left. and orangutan at the top scared and refusing to leave.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2305277/Pictured-Pregnant-orangutan-clinging-remaining-forest-tree-bulldozers-clear-jungle-make-way-oil-plantation.html

this is the future of everything. living in denial and clinging to the last tree standing. we've conditioned ourselves to believe in anything that shapes our perspective and ignore everything ancillary. this makes us a specialist species. wildly successful when the conditions are right -and doomed when anything changes. like the polar bear.

our capacity for fooling ourselves is only matched by our ambition. there's very few species in this world that are both apex predators while not, at the same time, being specialists. we create a winner take all system, where might equals right. only specialist species think this way. we have a choice, we can be specialists and eventually go extinct, or we can acknowledge our shortcomings and adapt.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Biden needs 58% of the remaining 16,105 votes in Georgia to erase Trump's lead of 2500 votes. Likely Biden comes out of it with a lead in the neighborhood of 3000-5000 votes. Whew, what a mess that will be if that's a deciding state. Fortunately I think Pennsylvania will make Georgia superfluous in the end.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I honestly don't have a good feel for how Arizona will end up.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Since my handicap of the Texas race was so successful, I may as well repeat it for the outstanding states:

Chances of Biden winning:
Pennsylvania ~90% - the math is heavily in Biden's favor, but until the votes are actually counted there's still some uncertainty
Nevada ~85% - Biden with a very small lead now and expected that the remaining votes will fall to him - I would think if that weren't true we'd be hearing more from the Trump campaign about it
Georgia ~70% - this is going to be very close but the math from NY Times and other seem to indicate a slight edge for Biden
Arizona ~60% - this is going to be closer than I expected but I think Trump will come up just short based on the size of the lead Biden has currently
North Carolina ~30% - this is expected to move toward Biden and I think the votes could be there for him, but NY Times math has him coming up short, so I'm reluctant to be too bullish on this one
Alaska <1% - no reason to think Biden has a real shot here but the counting just isn't far enough along for anyone to call it, I guess

I would update as follows:
Pennsylvania ~90% Biden - Trump's lead is down to 40k votes, and there are enough votes remaining in areas that heavily favor Biden that this won't be close in the end
Nevada ~90% Biden - Biden with a 12k lead and most of the remaining vote from Biden-leaning Clark County
Georgia ~80% Biden comes out with a very small lead, I think it will hold but it's going to a lead sub-10k
Arizona ~55% Biden - I give Biden the advantage only because he holds a 40k lead currently with ~200k votes to count - this has a decent chance of flipping
North Carolina ~20% Biden - I think this will move toward Biden but not enough to flip
Alaska <1% Biden - not sure why the count isn't progressing to a finish here

[Sour Masher]

I didn't think I could actually hate Trump more than I do already...his "speech" tonight left me speechless. I wish him a most painful death.

The man does not care about our democracy. I've been trying to tell people this since before he was elected. It is heartening that many of his allies have drawn the line here, finally. But many have not and continue to stand by him, echoing his lies that erode the faith in our government. Anyone killed in his name because of these words are just added on to his murder list, behind the 100s of thousands he has already killed.

[Sour Masher]

in 2013 a forest being cleared had one tree left. and orangutan at the top scared and refusing to leave.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2305277/Pictured-Pregnant-orangutan-clinging-remaining-forest-tree-bulldozers-clear-jungle-make-way-oil-plantation.html

this is the future of everything. living in denial and clinging to the last tree standing. we've conditioned ourselves to believe in anything that shapes our perspective and ignore everything ancillary. this makes us a specialist species. wildly successful when the conditions are right -and doomed when anything changes. like the polar bear.

our capacity for fooling ourselves is only matched by our ambition. there's very few species in this world that are both apex predators while not, at the same time, being specialists. we create a winner take all system, where might equals right. only specialist species think this way. we have a choice, we can be specialists and eventually go extinct, or we can acknowledge our shortcomings and adapt.

That is a heart-breaking image, and an interesting analogy. I am not sure I agree though--I think we are tremendously adaptable taken at the largest scale. But at the small scale of our lives, not as much. Countries and empires rise and fall, but so far, humans expand and thrive. I do fear that our nature, once we get to the point of easily accessible extinction level weapons, it is all over for us. The mistakes we make so far are not fatal to our species, but one day they may be.