Election 2020

[DMT]

Btw, it should be pretty clear that Sanders or Warren would've gotten smoked by Trump.

[chancellor]

Btw, it should be pretty clear that Sanders or Warren would've gotten smoked by Trump.

I've seen that from two people now...I'm surprised. I think Warren, especially with a good VP choice, would have done exceptionally well.

[chancellor]

While on the subject of markets, and maybe this deserves a new thread, but my effort to have a balanced portfolio with value stocks as well as growth stocks has really hurt my modest (late start) portfolio these last few years, especially this year. I keep holding the line, but the difference between my growth stocks and value stocks is really stark--my growth fund is way up on the year and my value one is way negative, with a net result of stagnation. I keep lamenting all the extra I'd have if I'd just gone 100% growth. I have read that finally, my value stocks would do something good after the election, because historically value stocks do better right after an election. But will that still be the case? So far my growth stocks are doing even better and my value stocks keep being poop. My value stock mutual fund is down 10% on the year while my growth stock one is up over 25%. I know it is long term that these things are supposed to play out, but basically every since I started have a portfolio at all, growth stocks have totally obliterated value stocks. My modest portfolio would probably be 50% greater if I just put everything into growth stocks and kept them there over the last 10 years. I keep waiting for the rebalances to pay off with an upswing in value stocks, but it keeps never happening. Everything in my portfolio except growth stocks has been poop. Value, mid-cap, small-cap, all poop.

Paging revo. Paging revo. Financial code blue in the Election room.

[Sour Masher]

I've seen that from two people now...I'm surprised. I think Warren, especially with a good VP choice, would have done exceptionally well.

I'd like to believe that, but I don't see the evidence pointing to that. Don't you think the strategy of painting her as a socialist that would tank the economy would have been more effective? I don't see how she would have done better with PoC.

[Hornsby]

Paging revo. Paging revo. Financial code blue in the Election room.

I wanted revo to be my guy, but my wife put the kibosh on it...wanted to keep it with the local guy we'd been with for 25 years. Sigh.

Ed very graciously did a financial review for me when I turned 65, and it was gratis. I couldn't recommend him higher for your investments.

[Sour Masher]

I'm not convinced yet the GOP holds the Senate)

I gotta ask why here. To me, it seems a 51-49 advantage is pretty secure for the Republicans. I cannot imagine, even we get to two run ons on Georgia, that both will end in Democratic victories, and that is what it seems like it will take at this point to get to 50-50.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I gotta ask why here. To me, it seems a 51-49 advantage is pretty secure for the Republicans. I cannot imagine, even we get to two run ons on Georgia, that both will end in Democratic victories, and that is what it seems like it will take at this point to get to 50-50.

I would say that North Carolina isn't settled yet, either. But I'm not optimistic that any of the three remaining Senate races end up with a Democrat in office.

[chancellor]

I'd like to believe that, but I don't see the evidence pointing to that. Don't you think the strategy of painting her as a socialist that would tank the economy would have been more effective? I don't see how she would have done better with PoC.

I doubt the socialist accusation lobbed at her versus Biden would have swayed more or less voters, but maybe it would have swung a small percentage of votes. I think she'd have more than overcome that with more effective speeches (I mean, c'mon, some of those Biden word salads were downright embarassing), more robust campaigning, and she'd have absolutely smoked Trump in a debate. I think she'd have generated a higher enthusiasm level among the Democratic voters.

Another key difference is that I don't believe she'd have settled for the extremely passive ground game that the Biden campaign did. Warren, given COVID, would still have been cautious, but there was still a lot that could have been done that didn't get done in the Biden campaign that I'm pretty sure Warren would have at least done in part, if not completely.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I doubt the socialist accusation lobbed at her versus Biden would have swayed more or less voters, but maybe it would have swung a small percentage of votes. I think she'd have more than overcome that with more effective speeches (I mean, c'mon, some of those Biden word salads were downright embarassing), more robust campaigning, and she'd have absolutely smoked Trump in a debate. I think she'd have generated a higher enthusiasm level among the Democratic voters.

Another key difference is that I don't believe she'd have settled for the extremely passive ground game that the Biden campaign did. Warren, given COVID, would still have been cautious, but there was still a lot that could have been done that didn't get done in the Biden campaign that I'm pretty sure Warren would have at least done in part, if not completely.

Some of this I agree with. Warren was the candidate I favored in the primaries.

But I also think she would have suffered relative to Biden in two important areas: (1) a significant part of the electorate is sexist and won't vote for a woman for president, and (2) I don't believe she would have won the elderly vote the same way that Biden did. There's obviously some overlap between those two.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Biden lost a significant portion of the Hispanic vote. Do you think Warren would have been able to garner more of that?

[chancellor]

I gotta ask why here. To me, it seems a 51-49 advantage is pretty secure for the Republicans. I cannot imagine, even we get to two run ons on Georgia, that both will end in Democratic victories, and that is what it seems like it will take at this point to get to 50-50.

Let's concede Alaska is a GOP win. That, by my count puts the GOP at 49. That leaves Tillis in NC and both Georgia seats open. As KS noted, NC isn't over yet, but let's move that into the GOP column, too (mostly because I want to dunk on frae later )

But if Perdue doesn't get to 50% and both Georgia seats are a runoff, as I mentioned earlier, I think getting one of them is probable, but nowhere near certain. There'll be money spent like hell won't have it, and Perdue will get linked to Loeffler, who's an anchor right now.

[Ken]

Is there a feed that anyone has with the individual tranches that drop? We keep seeing TOTALS update, but I'd like to analyze each individual drop, and outside of manually recording the numbers before and after, I haven't seen anything yet that shows this.

Would be nice to see, state, county, time of update, Biden/Trump/other votes as they come in.

[chancellor]

But I also think she would have suffered relative to Biden in two important areas: (1) a significant part of the electorate is sexist and won't vote for a woman for president, and (2) I don't believe she would have won the elderly vote the same way that Biden did. There's obviously some overlap between those two.

Interesting perspective - My POV is she'd have gained at least as much among those who are looking for a woman for president versus those who won't vote for one. That's a gut read, though. I'd be very interested in seeing if there's any data to back it up.

Your point about the elderly vote is important - that's one we'll get more data on, I'll say I think more of the elderly vote fled Trump rather than moved to Biden, if that's clear. But I know that'll be tested over the next couple weeks.

Biden lost a significant portion of the Hispanic vote. Do you think Warren would have been able to garner more of that?

Doubtful. I do think she'd have done better among African American voters than Biden.

[frae]

I am sure I have missed some points made by others in my speed reading but I'll post anyway while I have a minute...

On the Biden wins the WH R's win the Senate D's win the house I know 538 had odds on all these outcomes somewhere but I can't dig it up. Biden was a 90% probability, D House was like 97, but D Senate wound up only at 75% so I think there were clearly outcomes were we go here.

On Alaska I am reading all they have counted is the day of vote, now it is Alaska so not the same as having Atlanta metro out in GA or something, but those votes will likely go in Gross's favor but not sure it can overcome 30 points, but we need to see the vote.

NC - Need to see the vote too much uncertain, but Cunningham is a big underdog to mount that comeback but not impossible.

Perdue is now under 50% we are about to have the two most expensive runoffs in history. The state is going to be nuts both sides GOTV effort will be nuts.

So I don't think you can concede the Senate yet, but it is an uphill battle.

[heyelander]

I wanted revo to be my guy, but my wife put the kibosh on it...wanted to keep it with the local guy we'd been with for 25 years. Sigh.

Ed very graciously did a financial review for me when I turned 65, and it was gratis. I couldn't recommend him higher for your investments.

revo hooked me up with life insurance, but I'm pretty sure he's leaned his lesson about trying to shepherd me financially.