Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

I don't think Nate Silver's polling aggregation is the problem, it's (1) the accuracy of the polls themselves, and (2) Nate Silver's idea that he could turn his polling aggregations into an accurate projection of election chances. I said before that he was way off on his understanding of what the polls might be missing (i.e., the systematic bias as opposed to random sample error) and how those errors would correlate from state to state.

In 2016, polls actually did pretty well except for a small number of Midwestern states. It seems like maybe they were off a lot more badly and broadly this time around, although I don't know if that's true.

[Ken]

I don't think Nate Silver's polling aggregation is the problem, it's (1) the accuracy of the polls themselves, and (2) Nate Silver's idea that he could turn his polling aggregations into an accurate projection of election chances. I said before that he was way off on his understanding of what the polls might be missing (i.e., the systematic bias as opposed to random sample error) and how those errors would correlate from state to state.

I really wanted Nate to be vindicated but... yeah it's still bad.

[frae]

Only 600 votes apparently outstanding in Wisconsin so Biden should win by about 20k.

[Ken]

Only 600 votes apparently outstanding in Wisconsin so Biden should win by about 20k.

I read that earlier but the reported numbers still show 95%, and haven't changed in a while. I think the 20K can still move, no?

[revo]

I don't think Nate Silver's polling aggregation is the problem, it's (1) the accuracy of the polls themselves, and (2) Nate Silver's idea that he could turn his polling aggregations into an accurate projection of election chances. I said before that he was way off on his understanding of what the polls might be missing (i.e., the systematic bias as opposed to random sample error) and how those errors would correlate from state to state.

In 2016, polls actually did pretty well except for a small number of Midwestern states. It seems like maybe they were off a lot more badly and broadly this time around, although I don't know if that's true.

A bigger issue is that he uses a finite number of 0-100 to determine his range. He really should use betting odds, because when you say "Biden has a 90% chance of winning," that translates to -1000 odds. Yet every betting site had Biden only as high as -165. So Nate was giving Biden almost a 700% greater chance of winning than every bookmaker did, which is a recipe for disaster.

Also, had/if Biden loses at those -1000 odds, that's an upset that would rank as one of the Top 5 in sports history for a major event, up there with Mike Tyson, the 1980 Russian hockey team, the 1988 A's, or the 2007 Patriots. And I don't know about you, but as much as I personally hate Donald Trump, he has an extremely enthusiastic core and all the trappings of incumbency. So even if Biden was favored to win, thinking a loss would be up there with those listed above borders on the ridiculous.

[frae]

I read that earlier but the reported numbers still show 95%, and haven't changed in a while. I think the 20K can still move, no?

I am watching their election official on MSNBC saying they seem to have the vote. I don't know I see what you see on NYT's site, but she makes it sound like they are done basically. The counties will do some systems checks, but Trump won this by about the same in 2016 and this seems to be the rough first count.

[Ken]

I am watching their election official on MSNBC saying they seem to have the vote. I don't know I see what you see on NYT's site, but she makes it sound like they are done basically.

Isn't it the difference between "done" and reported to the county officials, and "done" and reported publicly?

Followup to the tweet you posted above:

Remember, the unofficial numbers being reported for Wisconsin come from the news media. The state doesn't have its own election night system for unofficial results. The WEC won't start getting official numbers from county clerks til next week.

[frae]

Isn't it the difference between "done" and reported to the county officials, and "done" and reported publicly?

Followup to the tweet you posted above:

Remember, the unofficial numbers being reported for Wisconsin come from the news media. The state doesn't have its own election night system for unofficial results. The WEC won't start getting official numbers from county clerks til next week.

I don't know I am not declaring anything just parsing through what info is there. Not sure there is a 20K flip out there though.

[Davros]

Following a search as to why no results have been provided from Antrim County in Michigan, I found this article below. Seems like that area will be seeing quite a few lawyers soon. There are only 23,177 people living in that county from what I see, so the results should only affect the final state result if the margin of victory is minuscule.

https://www.9and10news.com/2020/11/04/election-officials-in-antrim-county-investigate-skewed-election-results/

Early Wednesday morning, unofficial results were announced showing Antrim County went strongly for Democrats across the ticket.

The county, like much of northern Michigan, is usually very heavily Republican.

The county clerk says she became aware of “apparently skewed” results early Wednesday morning.

The county says they are working with election officials across the county, and with the company that provides their voting software, to figure out what happened.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Following a search as to why no results have been provided from Antrim County in Michigan, I found this article below. Seems like that area will be seeing quite a few lawyers soon. There are only 23,177 people living in that county from what I see, so the results should only affect the final state result if the margin of victory is minuscule.

https://www.9and10news.com/2020/11/0...ction-results/

I don't think it's going to be seeing a bunch of lawyers. More likely the counts just got transposed when they were transmitted to the state, and when they fix that, Trump will gain about 6400 net votes.

[revo]

Bovada has ended the betting markets for Wisconsin & Michigan, leaving just 5 states up:

Arizona: -330 Biden
Georgia: -260 Trump
Nevada: -800 Biden
NC: -500 Trump
PA: -240 Biden

[Kevin Seitzer]

Current status as I understand it:

States that are done and called for Biden (227 votes)

No rational reason to think these states won't end up for Biden (32 votes):
Wisconsin (10) - 20k vote margin and counting basically done
Michigan (16) - 42k vote margin - after adjusting for Antrim error - still some votes coming in but those are favoring Biden
Nevada (6) - 8k vote margin and remaining votes are mostly from Clark County and believed to favor Biden

Biden currently leading and likely will remain so but not fully clear yet (11 votes):
Arizona - 93k vote margin, enough votes out there to change that but various sources indicating it probably won't be enough for Trump to overcome current Biden lead

Trump currently leading but projections indicate Biden should have enough votes left to win (20 votes):
Pennsylvania - 465k vote margin for Trump, projections are for 700-800k net votes coming for Biden

Trump currently leading and final projections are very close (16 votes):
Georgia - 86k vote margin for Trump, NY Times is projecting a narrow victory for Biden

Trump currently leading and likely keeps his lead (15 votes):
North Carolina - 77k vote margin for Trump, NY Times projects a likely Trump victory

States that are done and called for Trump (217 votes)

[Kevin Seitzer]

We will likely know the results from Arizona and Georgia by tonight, if not final, enough to know who won. Pennsylvania and Nevada likely take until tomorrow. North Carolina is probably after that.

[Kevin Seitzer]

And if this tweet is accurate, I might move North Carolina into the "very close" bucket with Georgia:

[Sour Masher]

Thats the biggest load of horseshit. Joe Biden was hurt because of Trump's attacks that he's a socialist? Give me a break.

Biden has been saying he'll have Republicans on his cabinet, and that's not reaching out to Republicans enough?! We'll have plenty of time to debate what went wrong for Biden, but this analysis is trash.

The Lincoln Project said they would bring Republicans over to Biden... I heard Trump went from collecting 90% of registered Republicans in '16 up to 93% in this election! Great fucking job! Let's share their videos everywhere to help them build a media empire so they can fundraise to support down-ballot Republicans....

All the Libs here dropped the ball circle-jerking to right wing propaganda that acted as soothsayer, "don't worry, right wingers agree with you, he's a vile human, and once we expose that, he'll be finished." You all fell for an elaborate rope-a-dope.

You are right. I was wrong to believe that ads from Republican orgs like TLP were actually reaching and affecting Republican voters. Maybe that had a small impact on white men, because that is just about the only demographic Biden did better in than HRC, but who knows if they even moved the needle there. I concede that point.

But by far the most inexplicable thing to me is the fact that Trump actually gained ground in just about every demographic except white guys. That, to me, is the biggest gut punch. I did not see this reported, but looking it up myself, it looks like Trump did better among AAs than any Republican since 1960 for Nixon against JFK. I cannot comprehend how Trump did better in 2020 than 2016 with these groups. I don't get it at all. All I say was Trump whistleblowing Proud boys, but he somehow doubled his support among black woman and nearly doubled it with black men. I. do. not. get. it. If you buy, which I don't, that Biden lost a bunch of ground for being a "progressive" than what the hell is the downside in running a real progressive next time? None, if that is true, but I don't think it is. No doubt Sanders would have lost even more of the middle, BUT, maybe he would have more than made up for it in other demos. However, Biden did better than Sanders in the AA community in the primaries, so I don't know what the vote breakdown would have been there if Sanders were the nomination. I shudder to think that it could have been worse. I don't get it. Did I say that already? Dems have to figure out how to get that AA vote all the way back. I don't know how they do it, because I don't know how or why they broke Trump in 2020.