Election 2020

[revo]

New Hampshire:

New Hampshire 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary	Emerson	
Biden 25, Sanders 27, Harris 12, Warren 9, O'Rourke 5, Klobuchar 8, Booker 5, Bloomberg 2, Gillibrand 1, Castro 0	Sanders +2

New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden - Biden 55, Trump 45	Biden +10
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders - Sanders 55, Trump 45	Sanders +10
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Harris - Harris 52, Trump 48	Harris +4
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Warren - Warren 52, Trump 48	Warren +4
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Booker - Booker 51, Trump 49	Booker +2
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders vs. Schultz - Sanders 48, Trump 42, Schultz 10	Sanders +6
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz - Trump 45, Warren 44, Schultz 12	Trump +1

Schultz would royally screw things up for the Dems, unbelievably enough (I thought he was already done). He clips 7-8 points from them and just 3 from the GOP.

[Teenwolf]

Not worried about Schultz.

[Judge Jude]

from this week's Time magazine:

"The party's center of gravity may have moved left, but the ideological drift shouldn't be overstated.

"There are a lot of myths about the Democratic primary electorate, including the narrative that it's super liberal," says veteran pollster John Anzalone, who conducted 100 focus groups before the 2018 midterms.

"The share of Democrats who call themselves 'liberal' or 'progressive' tends to be about half, which is higher than it has been historically, but hardly dominant. (By contrast, about three-quarters of Republicans call themselves 'conservative.') The other half of Democrats consider themselves moderate or even conservative.

"We're not the Republicans, with their litmus tests," Anzalone says. "There might be some single-issue voters on the margins, but most primary voters are pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control and pro-environment. Beyond that, people aren't really hung up on whether you do Medicare for All or just protect and improve Obamacare."

"Another myth is that that the party's increasing diversity is driving its leftward lurch. In fact, it's the opposite: non-Hispanic white Democrats (about 60 percent of the party) are far more likely to call themselves liberal than black and Hispanic party members. While young Democrats are overwhelmingly liberal, about 60 percent of the party's primary voters are still over 50."

[Sour Masher]

from this week's Time magazine:

"The party's center of gravity may have moved left, but the ideological drift shouldn't be overstated.

"There are a lot of myths about the Democratic primary electorate, including the narrative that it's super liberal," says veteran pollster John Anzalone, who conducted 100 focus groups before the 2018 midterms.

"The share of Democrats who call themselves 'liberal' or 'progressive' tends to be about half, which is higher than it has been historically, but hardly dominant. (By contrast, about three-quarters of Republicans call themselves 'conservative.') The other half of Democrats consider themselves moderate or even conservative.

"We're not the Republicans, with their litmus tests," Anzalone says. "There might be some single-issue voters on the margins, but most primary voters are pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control and pro-environment. Beyond that, people aren't really hung up on whether you do Medicare for All or just protect and improve Obamacare."

"Another myth is that that the party's increasing diversity is driving its leftward lurch. In fact, it's the opposite: non-Hispanic white Democrats (about 60 percent of the party) are far more likely to call themselves liberal than black and Hispanic party members. While young Democrats are overwhelmingly liberal, about 60 percent of the party's primary voters are still over 50."

This all rings true to me, and it is good to remind ourselves of. That second point is why I think, long term, Trump will be a disaster for the GOP. They could have reached out to black and Hispanic voters and gotten a good portion of them, if they were not seen as the party that, on a whole, is against those groups. I know many fiscally conservative, and even socially conservative black Democrats, because, well, it is really damn hard to be a part of a group that you perceive hates you. I think when they realize the trump way won't work anymore and decide to pivot to go big tent, it will be too late for them, and will take decades to win over voters that they could have had, had they not gone all in on Trump.

[onejayhawk]

The center of gravity has moved left because the party has jettisoned its center. Hillary Clinton referred to a basket of deplorables. It was just the most egregious example of a theme. The Unions the Democratics embrace now are white collar, eg federal employees and teachers, not blue collar such as factory workers and truck drivers. In this forum, there are those who openly mock less educated people. The Democrats have moved left by embracing the elites and abandoning their roots.

J

[DMT]

You mean the unions the GOP has spent decades attacking?

[onejayhawk]

You mean the unions the GOP has spent decades attacking?

From my perspective as a Union official, I would say no. But, if that's what the script says, go with it.

J

[revo]

Latest polls. Trump won Texas by 9% over Hillary in 2016, so these are not good numbers at all:

Texas: Trump vs. Biden	   Trump 47, Biden 46	  Trump +1
Texas: Trump vs. Sanders     Trump 47, Sanders 45  Trump +2
Texas: Trump vs. Harris	   Trump 48, Harris 41	  Trump +7
Texas: Trump vs. Warren	   Trump 48, Warren 41	  Trump +7
Texas: Trump vs. O'Rourke    Trump 47, O'Rourke 46  Trump +1
Texas: Trump vs. Castro	   Trump 46, Castro 41	  Trump +5


New Hampshire 2020 Republican Presidential Primary	UNH	Trump 68, Kasich 17, Weld 3	Trump +51

[Teenwolf]

Biden looks like he's jumping into the race! Conservative outlets reported a few days ago (not sure how reliable Daily Wire or Breitbart are) that Biden is hiring people in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/43964...-emily-zanotti

In other Biden news, he had to apologize yesterday for calling Mike Pence a good guy... looks like he's going to run with his shoelaces tied together. Can't wait.

[revo]

Washington Governor Jay Inslee also declares for the Democratic nod. Beto O'Rourke is expected to follow suit sometime in the next week.

[Teenwolf]

Washington Governor Jay Inslee also declares for the Democratic nod. Beto O'Rourke is expected to follow suit sometime in the next week.

Excellent news. I love seeing the centrists continue to fragment.

I heard recently that the first 2 Democratic debates are structured differently than the Republicans did last time. Instead of dividing the debate into Tier 1 and Tier 2, or the grown up vs. kids tables, the first 2 debates will each be 2 nights, selected randomly. So you'll have a good mix of contenders on stage at all times.

[The Feral Slasher]

Excellent news. I love seeing the centrists continue to fragment.

I heard recently that the first 2 Democratic debates are structured differently than the Republicans did last time. Instead of dividing the debate into Tier 1 and Tier 2, or the grown up vs. kids tables, the first 2 debates will each be 2 nights, selected randomly. So you'll have a good mix of contenders on stage at all times.

Apparently Inslee is going to run with climate change as his top priority, at least that is what I heard on the local radio this am. It will be interesting to see he can carve out a few percent of the vote and who would he steal from ? Can't see him lasting long.

[The Feral Slasher]

Apparently Inslee is going to run with climate change as his top priority, at least that is what I heard on the local radio this am. It will be interesting to see he can carve out a few percent of the vote and who would he steal from ? Can't see him lasting long.

Article and interview with Inslee

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/3/1/18244206/jay-inslee-2020-campaign-president-climate-change-interview

[Teenwolf]

Article and interview with Inslee

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...ange-interview

Interesting. If he wasn't a 68 year old white guy, he might have more of a chance... but as someone who mirrors Sanders' platform, he needs more meat on the bone in his platform to coalesce support. I feel like Bernie is tackling multiple issues without diluting the Green New Deal messaging. Not sure how Inslee takes any more than a fraction of the progressive vote.

[The Feral Slasher]

Interesting. If he wasn't a 68 year old white guy, he might have more of a chance... but as someone who mirrors Sanders' platform, he needs more meat on the bone in his platform to coalesce support. I feel like Bernie is tackling multiple issues without diluting the Green New Deal messaging. Not sure how Inslee takes any more than a fraction of the progressive vote.

I fully expect he will get near zero percent of the early vote. He's never struck me as charismatic and he has little name recognition. And a generally unpopular message. But other than that I think he's got a great shot at winning !