Election 2020

[frae]

Given the breakdown I watched on Georgia, I would be confident in Biden'schances, as Wisconsin would clinch it... but that bit you add at the end brings me pause.

Nevada could easily go to Trump, given Biden's terrible performance with Latinos. Trump won Florida Latino vote by 11 pts, and Hispanics and Latinos make up 27.3% of the population in Nevada, so its far from a lock.

So a follow-up question. If he wins Georgia and Wisconsin but loses Nevada and Pennsylvania... what does he need to clinch? I guess in that case he would need Michigan as well? Any other outs?

So far he is running up a 10% lead in Clark in Nevada so we will see and so far has better margins than Clinton up in Reno so I am optimistic.

The GA race has closed to 2.5 points now, it is going to be close.

[nullnor]

if Trump doesn't get reelected does that mean we won't be building a deathstar?

[nullnor]

depending on who wins we are either less fucked or more fucked. but we are still all fucked.

[nullnor]

I blame the sitcom show Seinfeld. all the different times Jerry broke the law. like the time they stole a limousine ride from the airport and pretended to be the leaders of the aryan nation. Murphy and O'Brien.

[Teenwolf]

Oh man, seeing less optimism on Wisconsin, but a little more optimism on Michigan. Biden needs to crush it with the remaining votes to come from Milwaukee to take Wisconsin. Biden could easily win either or both or neither. Terrifyingly close. Go Milwaukee!!!

I'm sickened by the Kenosha Wisconsin shift to Republicans. Apparently the locals side with domestic terrorist shitheads killing Ain-tee-fers wielding skateboards. Clinton lost the county by 300 votes, Biden down 13K. Disgusting.

[nullnor]

if Biden doesn't win I guess i'll have to pay back that 10k student loan from the worst HVAC school in the country. it's a good thing it's impossible not to get a job in that industry.

someone should've asked Trump, whatever happened to those manufacturing jobs he promised?

doesn't matter who wins, in the long run, you can't fix stupid.

[nullnor]

every year it's the same thing. in every country. everyone promises change, plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose. why vote, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over with the same results.

in contrast, get a good seat on the asteroid so you have a better view when it hits the planet.

[nullnor]

yet there is always hope.

[nullnor]

the rise of intelligence or a technological civilization is like making 50 billion dollars. you spend the first half of your life making it, and the last half trying harder to give it away.

[DMT]

What a shithole country we live in.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I've declared myself president on Facebook...... Bow to your new overlord.

[Teenwolf]

Wow, Biden looks likely to take the comeback win in Wisconsin! If he only needs to one more win from Pennsylvania or Michigan, both with lots of mail in votes left to count, plus possibilities in Georgia and NC, there's lots of paths to a Biden win.

The mail in vote from Wisconsin was even higher of a Democrat lean than I would have thought, so if that carries over in the above states yet to count, a few could easily flip to Biden, and you only need 1.

[frae]

What I think happens now...

Wisconsin lead for Biden should grow, hope it gets above 1% to avoid a recount

Nevada only has mail in absentee and provisional left all data on these types of vote say they will go toward Biden. Nevada won’t start counting again until Thursday so no call coming there until then but it looks good for Biden to stretch his lead.

MI lots of wayne county vote out. If MN and WI are the examples then Biden will close strong and my guess is get there.

PA - so much out no point projecting but let’s say coin flip

GA- more good data to look at and lots of Democratic votes out there. I’ll say better than 50/50 for Biden.

NC- not sure what all is out and if it’s enough to close the gap more like 65/35 for Trump.

AZ - the ap called it and they are pretty conservative with calls.

If we want to know today I think the only path is probably Biden wins Mi Wi and Ga if you want to see someone over 270 on paper, but win 2 of them and assume Nevada and you get there. PA is going to be at least another 2 days.

EDIT - not long after typing this we got a big dump out of Wayne Count that closed the MI gap to 1.3 points with still lots of vote left, that batch of wayne county vote broke almost 7/10 to Biden.

[frae]

It is down to 0.5 a point in Michigan and still 36% of Wayne County to come.

Edit - forget half a point it is tied and moving Biden’s way, also Biden now up almost 0.7 of a point in WI stretching that lead slowly toward the 1% mark that avoids a recount.

[frae]

Gamblers have moved the live odds to -385 for Biden as of 8 AM.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/election-odds-predictions-trump-biden-betting-presidential-race-2020