Election 2020

[DMT]

FL district level results are looking good for Biden. FL and AZ should be able to report tonight and pre-empt shithead's attempts to sow chaos.

[DMT]

I had no idea how low Biden's leads had sunk in battleground states until I checked this morning. I would give anything under a 3 pt Biden lead to Trump, which puts Trump back in office. I hope the slim margins hold.

That said, I think betting markets are reacting more to Trump's stated attempt to steal the election by using the SC to pick and choose which votes to count moreso than a market response to polling or anything tangible.

No Trump rout then?

[Teenwolf]

Where are you getting averages from? RCP is a bad source now as they are dropping highly rated polls from there average and counting the crap polls from the right. Here’s a better explanation if you want to read the whole thread...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323601603249713152?s=21

Thanks for the explanation. You nailed the source that had me concerned. The RCP avgs are much closer.

[frae]

Thanks for the explanation. You nailed the source that had me concerned. The RCP avgs are much closer.

Yeah they are definitely gaming the numbers to give the rosiest outlook for Trump. Like Nate says in his tweets there Trump can win, but RCP isn’t giving an honest representation of the polling average.

[heyelander]

Is it over yet? I'm on tenterhooks.

[Ken]

Is it over yet? I'm on tenterhooks.

at least halfway

[umjewman]

Is it over yet? I'm on tenterhooks.

You should make sure you have a spotter when doing stuff like that.

[frae]

Nate has said if the Democrats keep it under R+3 in Florida they have a good chance. Running behind about 200k in party ID and with the way NPA tend to break this is overall good news for Biden and he is getting your numbers from a few places he needs late. I feel like Charlie Brown and Florida is holding the football.

[heyelander]

I feel like Charlie Brown and Florida is holding the football.

you should make sure you have a spotter when doing stuff like that.

[revo]

With 75% of the vote in Pinellas County in, Biden already has 10k more votes than Hillary had in 2016. This is considered to be a key county in Florida.

[Sour Masher]

With 75% of the vote in Pinellas County in, Biden already has 10k more votes than Hillary had in 2016. This is considered to be a key county in Florida.

Disappointing numbers from Dade County.

[frae]

Yep gonna be surprised to see FL go to Biden based on what we are seeing, but I didn't predict him to win in because it is just such a weird state and I never will trust it.

[frae]

Texas numbers are interesting, KS what do you see?

[revo]

Disappointing numbers from Dade County.

Florida appears to be slipping away from Biden, which means all the polls, except for the ones reported yesterday, were wrong there again.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Texas numbers are interesting, KS what do you see?

Early signs favorable for a Trump victory in Texas.