Election 2020

[umjewman]

Obligatory Election Day video posting:

[Sour Masher]

I guess I should make some predictions.

For Trump
TX
IA
OH
FL
GA

For Biden

NC
ME-2
NE-2
AZ
PA
MI
WI
MN

312 - 226

Senate

For R's

SC
Alaska
TX
AL
MS
KS
MT


That's one flip for them

For D's

Maine
NC
CO
AZ
MI
IA

That's flipping 5 for a net of 4 which would give Democrats 51. This number really could wind up anywhere.

I am now predicting both GA races go to a runoff I don't think Ossoff or Perdue clear 50 today. If you made me pick one today I would take Ossoff. The second GA definitely goes to a runoff.

The House Democrats retain and I will go with gain 11 seats.

I am hoping Biden pulls out Georgia and/or Florida. Despite the polls favoring Florida for Biden more than Georgia for Biden, I feel like there is a better chance of Georgia flipping, just cuz I have family in Florida and that state is crazy.

[fuhrdog]

I still say Trump and Ernst win in Iowa. If either of them would have worn a KKK hood they could have sealed the deal earlier

[Kevin Seitzer]

I still say Trump and Ernst win in Iowa. If either of them would have worn a KKK hood they could have sealed the deal earlier

Trump is saving that for his second term.

[Steve 2.0]

Trump is saving that for his second term.

You take that back right this instant!!! "Second term" indeed.

[Steve 2.0]

#8645

[chancellor]

It is a risky move giving that kind of authority to a young man like this, but the nimbleness I see from them floors me. I think this is gonna be a model others follow going forward.

From PACs, you could be right. National parties...no way, IMO. If a PAC has a miss, it's not that big of a deal. If a candidate or national party has a major miss if something hasn't been properly vetted, it has the potential to be devastating.

Plus, the part being ignored is the politics and ego involved. That's realistically even bigger than the vetting issue.

[revo]

Anyone else have a sense of dread, or is it just me? Reading that the betting odds surged for Dopey last night doesn’t help (Biden’s still a 60-65% fave, but still).

[Sour Masher]

Anyone else have a sense of dread, or is it just me? Reading that the betting odds surged for Dopey last night doesn’t help (Biden’s still a 60-65% fave, but still).

Yeah, if you ascribe to the ol money rules the world thing and see a surge like that you wonder what the oligarchs know that we don't. I'm torn, because I believe with all my heart and soul that a complete and fair count of all votes everywhere in this country will lead to a Biden victory. I'm just worried that will not happen. Trump has already said he is going to challenge everything. So far, it hasn't been a major issue, but I worry it could be. I'm hoping for a blow out so it won't matter.

[heyelander]

Happy voting day y'all ... and fyi, it's also world sandwich day!

what do you put on a world sandwich!

[heyelander]

Anyone else have a sense of dread, or is it just me? Reading that the betting odds surged for Dopey last night doesn’t help (Biden’s still a 60-65% fave, but still).

I was uneasy all weekend... like I had a work task that I had forgotten, or something was slipping away from me. I tried taking account of what all was going on at work and my home to-do list and couldn't come up with anything. In the end, it was this election. Usually once I figure out what is making me anxious, I can either plan for it, or accept that there is nothing I need to be doing for it and I relax, but that's not working with this. I feel anxious, distracted, and despondent.

[Steve 2.0]

Anyone else have a sense of dread, or is it just me? Reading that the betting odds surged for Dopey last night doesn’t help (Biden’s still a 60-65% fave, but still).

Well, yeah.......

[Teenwolf]

Anyone else have a sense of dread, or is it just me? Reading that the betting odds surged for Dopey last night doesn’t help (Biden’s still a 60-65% fave, but still).

I had no idea how low Biden's leads had sunk in battleground states until I checked this morning. I would give anything under a 3 pt Biden lead to Trump, which puts Trump back in office. I hope the slim margins hold.

That said, I think betting markets are reacting more to Trump's stated attempt to steal the election by using the SC to pick and choose which votes to count moreso than a market response to polling or anything tangible.

[frae]

I had no idea how low Biden's leads had sunk in battleground states until I checked this morning. I would give anything under a 3 pt Biden lead to Trump, which puts Trump back in office. I hope the slim margins hold.

That said, I think betting markets are reacting more to Trump's stated attempt to steal the election by using the SC to pick and choose which votes to count moreso than a market response to polling or anything tangible.

Where are you getting averages from? RCP is a bad source now as they are dropping highly rated polls from there average and counting the crap polls from the right. Here’s a better explanation if you want to read the whole thread...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323601603249713152?s=21

[frae]

538 averages of the states that absolutely matter

PA 50.2 - 45.6
Mi 51.2 -43.2
WI 52.1-43.7
NV 49.7-44.4
MN 51.8-42.7

The other states Biden can reach for, but doesn’t need to win.

AZ 48.7-46.1
FL 49.1-46.6
NC 48.9- 47.1
Ga 48.5-47.4

The others Trump leads in the avg.