Election 2020

[nullnor]

it's not hard, get in your RV start your 440 and move to another state.

[fuhrdog]

The cake is pretty much baked as far as polling goes. Monmouth was probably the last big PA poll to come out and it is up 5, though I saw somewhere on twitter Fox might have another poll today. Everything else this morning was B or lower rated polls. Trafalgar going all in with their Trump will win stance as they put him up 3 in MI which makes them the only pollster to show Trump ever leading there.

Wasserman had his projections on Morning Joe this morning he went with Biden in GA, AZ, MI, WI, NC, NE-2, ME-2 and PA and Trump holding FL and TX.

I don't know that Nate will give us his own personal projection, but they are pretty locked in probability wise of something like 89-91 - 11-9. As we have covered those things move quickly the other way if Trump wins PA, but without PA those numbers will stay roughly the same because you then expect MI and WI to go with PA. There are some true tossups here that won't be a polling error if Trump wins, GA, FL, and NC the reverse goes for Biden if he wins OH, TX or IA that won't be a polling error just a tossup state moving slightly the other way. AZ is a little closer to we could say there was a polling mistake but 3 points is usually within the MOE, but none of the A rated pollsters have given Trump a lead so this one is the first one I would be surprised about. Where we get to something wasn't right is with PA. Every well rated pollster has Biden with at least a 5 points the only polls giving Trump a lead are from 3 B- or below rated polls and he has a lead of 1, 3, and 1. From a data available only stand point Biden is clearly a favorite in PA and if he wins PA with MI and WI the path to a Trump victory is basically gone.

The House is going to the Democrats the question is how much do they gain? I am getting guesses of 10-15 from people I follow and that is to go with the gains from last time.

The Senate is probably where the most drama is if this was just a normal president. The results for this could go all sorts of directions. The easy predictions Dems win CO and AZ while Reps win AL. You now get into some very close races.

Iowa - a total coin flip in a state that Trump should win maybe that pushes it to Ernst, but this one is likely to be very tight.

Maine - Gideon is a slight favorite over Collins and this state will go to Biden so maybe that is the push Gideon needs

Georgia 1 - Ossoff has really made this a race and in a state that shows polling trending toward Biden this could go to Osoff. Perdue has the slightest better odds, but we are talking less than half a point in the vote. Also with this now being so close any serious 3rd party voting could require a runoff if it prevents either candidate from getting to 50%

Georgia 2 - It'll be a runoff for sure the questions is does long time Trump boot licker Collins beat qanon candidate endorsed Loeffler? I guess I am betting on the seated Senator to hold off Collins, but who knows. Regardless polling lately in the possible H2H matchups show Warnock leading both, should be interesting.

North Carolina - The race that proves Democrats have finally learned not to care about scandals because we know Republicans don't. Cunningham has been a slight favorite now for months and with NC ever so slightly titled to Biden I think he gets it done.

Montana - Only a race because Bullock ran, but not sure he can do it. This has the same odds as NC but in favor of Daines. My only hope here is MT has not been very well polled and maybe Bullocks popularity from being Gov can carry him?

We now get to reach states that I don't expect to go blue.

South Carolina - I don't think the demos have shifted enough and R's come home and vote for Graham.

Kansas - Not a ton of polling is again the only question, but the demos and history tell us not to expect Bollier to upset Marshall.

Michigan - Peters may not be an electric candidate but with MI moving back to Biden and only one outlier poll getting this race really close I just don't see it.

Alaska - Not a lot of polling but again past history suggests how this will go, but it is about a 3/4 chance so worth a mention because 1/4 isn't nothing.

Texas - While Trump has been in a consistently close race during this cycle it has not been the same for Cornyn. Hegar has never led and I just don't see this being within 5 points.

Mississippi- Hyde-Smith remains a pretty terrible person, but she is a Republican in Mississippi. There is no good polling here, but again MS.

538 doesn't have anything else under 90% probability. I'll eventually make some picks, but that is a summary of the Senate.

Trump and Ernst will win Iowa unfortunately

[nullnor]

I realized something this past week for the first time in my life.

women are judged on their fertility. that's why you still see females declaring they are 'bear moms' and so forth. in communities we call it families, in politics we call it electoral votes. it's why your GF gets pissed off when you meet their family and everyone asks her why she hasn't married and had children yet.

[frae]

Trump and Ernst will win Iowa unfortunately

I do tend to think Trump wins Iowa, but I think that Senate race is going to be razor close.

[Teenwolf]

I do tend to think Trump wins Iowa, but I think that Senate race is going to be razor close.

Did you see the clips of Ossoff obliterating Perdue in a debate so badly that Perdue canceled their final scheduled debate? In a close race, it could tip the scale.

[revo]

the EC is supposed to create a decentralized system which is supposed to enable democracy. when something is decentralized it's harder to control or do damage. it hasn't worked out the last few decades but that is not a reason to chuck it.

Fact is, it's become entirely centralized into just a few states.

And uhhh, if something hasn't worked in a few decades, then it's possible you're not just doing it wrong, but are a total dumbass.

[frae]

Did you see the clips of Ossoff obliterating Perdue in a debate so badly that Perdue canceled their final scheduled debate? In a close race, it could tip the scale.

I did and if the Senate flips on the strength of GA the Democratic party should all be sending Stacey Abrams thank you cards for how much her Gov run built a system and playbook to work from.

[Sour Masher]

Did you see the clips of Ossoff obliterating Perdue in a debate so badly that Perdue canceled their final scheduled debate? In a close race, it could tip the scale.

Holy crap, that was straight up gangsta. Man, I hope Georgians watched that. I just don't know how so many people keep voting for people like Perdue.

[Kevin Seitzer]

My handicap of the presidential vote in Texas:

Trump wins by >4% margin: 5%
Trump wins by 2-4% margin: 10%
Trump wins by 0-2% margin: 40%
Biden wins by 0-2% margin: 40%
Biden wins by >2% margin 5%

That means my next expectation for the margin is Trump by about 0.5%.

For reference, the 2016 margin was 9.0% for Trump (52.2% to 43.2% for Clinton), the 2012 margin was 15.8% for Romney (57.2% to 41.4% for Obama), and the 2008 margin was 11.8% for McCain (55.5% to 43.7% for Obama). GW Bush won over 60% of the vote, but I don't think that means much.

[nullnor]

Fact is, it's become entire centralized into a few states.

And uhhh, if something hasn't worked in a few decades, then it's possible you're not just doing it wrong, but are a total dumbass.

that's the idea. the most successful states set the country's policies. he wanted a logical counterargument..i am just say'n.

it was bad luck man, losing the presidency and SCOTUS. I don't think it's a sustainable trend. I think the founding fathers had it right. I am sure they debated heavily about it. the last thing you want to do is count every popular vote, and I know that sounds crazy.

the republicans own this country. when you get older you become more conservative, not the other way around. people live longer now. of course a virus and lack of healthcare could inhibit that. yet, if we get rid of the electoral college it's playing with fire. the last 20 years is an aberration.

[nullnor]

I use the word 'yet' instead of the horrible phrase, 'that said'.

there is something wrong with the phrase 'that said'. and imo people use it way too much.

[nullnor]

recently I was driving in my car listening to NPR and this guy came on the radio arguing about the need to change from an EC to a popular vote. I am liberal. I listened to the show, but I didn't agree. it's short term thinking from the stings of recent losses. it's a knee-jerk reaction. I heard of the statistics. and I agree it's not pretty. but it's not a reason to blow up the system.

that's kind of ironic I guess. as I was advocating we needed Bernie Sanders to change. radical times we live in. ..you guys may be right. i'm only squaring up the other side of this argument.

[Kevin Seitzer]

that's the idea. the most successful states set the country's policies. he wanted a logical counterargument..i am just say'n.

it was bad luck man, losing the presidency and SCOTUS. I don't think it's a sustainable trend. I think the founding fathers had it right. I am sure they debated heavily about it. the last thing you want to do is count every popular vote, and I know that sounds crazy.

the republicans own this country. when you get older you become more conservative, not the other way around. people live longer now. of course a virus and lack of healthcare could inhibit that. yet, if we get rid of the electoral college it's playing with fire. the last 20 years is an aberration.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are the most successful states??

[chancellor]

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are the most successful states??

Well, I can't speak for Pennsylvania or Michigan, but it's certainly insightful of Nully to note the truth about Wisconsin.

[The Feral Slasher]

I use the word 'yet' instead of the horrible phrase, 'that said'.

there is something wrong with the phrase 'that said'. and imo people use it way too much.

Yet others use it far too infrequently