Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
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Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View PostI believe it takes 2/3ds of both houses and 3/4ths of the states to ratify--Hard but not impossible.
Last time was in the 90s I believe.
Here is a link to the plan: https://www.fairvote.org/what_is_the...ular_vote_plan
And here is a link to the most up-to-date breakdown of who has signed on:
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation
"The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by 16 jurisdictions possessing 196 electoral votes, including 4 small states (DE, HI, RI, VT), 8 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NM, OR, WA), 3 big states (CA, IL, NY), and the District of Columbia. The bill will take effect when enacted by states with 74 more electoral votes. The bill has passed at least one chamber in 9 additional states with 88 more electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA). A total of 3,408 state legislators from all 50 states have endorsed it."
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The difference when comparing PA for Biden to FL for Trump is most importantly Biden leads by over 5 points in the avg for PA whereas Trump is down about 1.5 in the average in FL. Secondly, while it makes it much harder for Biden to win the electoral map without PA it is possible since the polling in MI and WI are better and then all Biden needs is one of NC and AZ with MI and WI. Trump loses PA with MI and WI and the math just doesn't work for him. So again Trump really has a very narrow path to a win and Biden has multiple ways to win.
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And I'd love for someone to try to defend the fairness or logic of the EC, because the argument against it is complete and the argument for it is hogwash. The only rationale for it, initially, was to stop someone like Trump from getting elected. That it, it was meant to allow the for those appointed to cast the votes to reject who states actually voted for, if the states voted for someone unfit for office. You know, as they did in 2016 for Trump. But since its inception, it has been a rubber stamp. The hypothetical use case has never been enacted and never will be. That is obvious after it was not used on Trump.
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"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
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Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
Look Trump can win PA he did it before and he probably has a 2/10 chance of doing it again, but this guy is just taking the rosiest of facts without explaining them.Last edited by frae; 11-01-2020, 12:09 PM.
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Originally posted by frae View PostThe difference when comparing PA for Biden to FL for Trump is most importantly Biden leads by over 5 points in the avg for PA whereas Trump is down about 1.5 in the average in FL. Secondly, while it makes it much harder for Biden to win the electoral map without PA it is possible since the polling in MI and WI are better and then all Biden needs is one of NC and AZ with MI and WI. Trump loses PA with MI and WI and the math just doesn't work for him. So again Trump really has a very narrow path to a win and Biden has multiple ways to win.
Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostAnd I'd love for someone to try to defend the fairness or logic of the EC, because the argument against it is complete and the argument for it is hogwash. The only rationale for it, initially, was to stop someone like Trump from getting elected. That it, it was meant to allow the for those appointed to cast the votes to reject who states actually voted for, if the states voted for someone unfit for office. You know, as they did in 2016 for Trump. But since its inception, it has been a rubber stamp. The hypothetical use case has never been enacted and never will be. That is obvious after it was not used on Trump.
Less populous states were afraid the more populous states could control everything. Since this took place at the shortly after the French Revolution, the prospect of mob rule was in the background. This is why the legislature was divided into two houses--one strictly by statehood and the other by population. Alexander Hamilton said in Federalist papers #68,
The mode of appointment of the Chief Magistrate of the United States is almost the only part of the system, of any consequence, which has escaped without severe censure, or which has received the slightest mark of approbation from its opponents. The most plausible of these, who has appeared in print, has even deigned to admit that the election of the President is pretty well guarded. I venture somewhat further, and hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent. It unites in an eminent degree all the advantages, the union of which was to be wished for.
It was a well accepted compromise at the time of the writing, following an extensive dialog carried out in newspapers. The final form of the EC simply adds the House and Senate, giving high population states a bigger say in the final outcome but maintaining a voice for smaller states. If you have any interest in history, check out the Federalist papers and the ant-federalists. It's interesting stuff.
One thing that could be done without amending the Constitution, is to enlarge the House of Representatives. The size is set by law and not by the Constitution.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View PostThis is beside the point. Almost all of Biden's paths include Pennsylvania, just like almost all of Trump's paths include Florida. If Biden wins Florida, Pennsylvania is already in the bag and vice versa.Last edited by frae; 11-01-2020, 12:25 PM.
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Originally posted by frae View PostMy point was, give me a path to a Trump win that doesn't include him winning FL? Biden can lose FL and PA and have a realistic chance of winning two of GA, AZ or NC because those demos do not mean if he loses PA and FL he loses those. MI and WI are not identical to PA so losing PA does not mean Biden loses there. Trump has almost a singular path of states he can win to get to 270.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
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Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
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Originally posted by revo View PostThis article is a great example that the Trump voter is no longer "shy." GOP supporters love to have it both ways: the polls are not accurate because Trump voters are shy, but also the polls are not accurate because look at all the yard signs that show Trump enthusiasm."Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)
"Your shitty future continues to offend me."
-Warren Ellis
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Originally posted by Hornsby View PostThey never were shy Trump voters, IMO. If anyone is a shy voter, it's Biden/Harris voters, simply because of the irrational behavior of many Trumpsters. Who needs to deal with that crap? They tried to intimidate a VP candidate, and Texas LEO's did nothing about it.
What was Texas law enforcement supposed to do? Right to assemble is 1st amendment and it was a lot more peaceful than BLM/Antifa last summer.
Originally posted by frae View PostMy point was, give me a path to a Trump win that doesn't include him winning FL? Biden can lose FL and PA and have a realistic chance of winning two of GA, AZ or NC because those demos do not mean if he loses PA and FL he loses MI and WI as those states are not identical to PA so losing PA does not mean Biden loses there. Trump has almost a singular path of states he can win to get to 270.
Originally posted by revo View PostThis article is a great example that the Trump voter is no longer "shy." GOP supporters love to have it both ways: the polls are not accurate because Trump voters are shy, but also the polls are not accurate because look at all the yard signs that show Trump enthusiasm.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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My path for Biden to win without PA is what I keep saying. Win MI, WI and 2 of AZ, NC, or GA which are not exactly the same demos as FL and PA and could happen. Losing FL and PA would hurt Biden but AZ and NC are very different from PA and FL and could go the other way to give Biden over 270.
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Originally posted by DMT View PostDude, you gotta bust out your FIFTH grade math skills!If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Not sure where to fit this, group of 200 led by pastor, peacefully walking from church to polls, were, without warning, pepper sprayed. Group was, of course, almost all black, andsome young children were among thosse pepper sprayed. https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...olls/24670213/
This seems to be a feature, not a bug. This was deliberate, there was no action that set off law enforcement, just the fact they were dark skinned, and so you can do whatever without consequence, is a selling point for trump supporters. Tuesday, specifically tuesday night after 7 pm est, I predict a long night of violence, egged on by FOX, by trump, supported by law enforcement who may hand out well wishes and waters to "militia".
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