Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

The electoral college is not going to remotely approach Reagan 84 levels even if Biden does 10 points better than the polls indicate.

Oh, I know it won't happen. There is a vast valley between what I hope and what I expect.

[Sour Masher]

I believe it takes 2/3ds of both houses and 3/4ths of the states to ratify--Hard but not impossible.

Last time was in the 90s I believe.

It will never happen, even though the EC is fundamentally unfair and a blight on our democracy. But I do have hope for an alternative work around plan where enough states sign on to give their EC votes to the popular vote winner. It is called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and it has already been enacted in 16 jurisdictions representing 196 EC votes, so it isn't a pie in the sky thing. It could happen. Unfortunately, almost all of the states signed on so far are blue, so the slog too 270 will be hard. But it at least has a shot whereas doing away with the EC seems impossible. If the 9 states where it has passed one chamber all signed up, it would take it over the top. It would lead to the same results as doing away with the EC. I really hope it happens, though, even if it does, it will be challenged in the courts, as Republicans believe the work around would need Congressional approval. But again, it has a much better shot at enacting change for the better than doing away with the EC.

Here is a link to the plan: https://www.fairvote.org/what_is_the...ular_vote_plan

And here is a link to the most up-to-date breakdown of who has signed on:

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation

"The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by 16 jurisdictions possessing 196 electoral votes, including 4 small states (DE, HI, RI, VT), 8 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NM, OR, WA), 3 big states (CA, IL, NY), and the District of Columbia. The bill will take effect when enacted by states with 74 more electoral votes. The bill has passed at least one chamber in 9 additional states with 88 more electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA). A total of 3,408 state legislators from all 50 states have endorsed it."

[frae]

The difference when comparing PA for Biden to FL for Trump is most importantly Biden leads by over 5 points in the avg for PA whereas Trump is down about 1.5 in the average in FL. Secondly, while it makes it much harder for Biden to win the electoral map without PA it is possible since the polling in MI and WI are better and then all Biden needs is one of NC and AZ with MI and WI. Trump loses PA with MI and WI and the math just doesn't work for him. So again Trump really has a very narrow path to a win and Biden has multiple ways to win.

[Sour Masher]

And I'd love for someone to try to defend the fairness or logic of the EC, because the argument against it is complete and the argument for it is hogwash. The only rationale for it, initially, was to stop someone like Trump from getting elected. That it, it was meant to allow the for those appointed to cast the votes to reject who states actually voted for, if the states voted for someone unfit for office. You know, as they did in 2016 for Trump. But since its inception, it has been a rubber stamp. The hypothetical use case has never been enacted and never will be. That is obvious after it was not used on Trump.

[Mithrandir]

https://triblive.com/opinion/paul-kengor-why-trump-will-likely-win-pa/

[frae]

https://triblive.com/opinion/paul-ke...likely-win-pa/

So the Trib is as right as can be, they cite yard signs, RCP avg which is biased because they don't weigh the avalanche of bad pollsters who lean R and he cites a Trafalgar poll which we covered their bias here the other day, and he cites the change in party registration stats which are because of long time people who were registered D's but ID'ed and voted as R's in counties like Greene and Fayette here in PA actually changed their registration.

Look Trump can win PA he did it before and he probably has a 2/10 chance of doing it again, but this guy is just taking the rosiest of facts without explaining them.

[onejayhawk]

The difference when comparing PA for Biden to FL for Trump is most importantly Biden leads by over 5 points in the avg for PA whereas Trump is down about 1.5 in the average in FL. Secondly, while it makes it much harder for Biden to win the electoral map without PA it is possible since the polling in MI and WI are better and then all Biden needs is one of NC and AZ with MI and WI. Trump loses PA with MI and WI and the math just doesn't work for him. So again Trump really has a very narrow path to a win and Biden has multiple ways to win.

This is beside the point. Almost all of Biden's paths include Pennsylvania, just like almost all of Trump's paths include Florida. If Biden wins Florida, Pennsylvania is already in the bag and vice versa.

And I'd love for someone to try to defend the fairness or logic of the EC, because the argument against it is complete and the argument for it is hogwash. The only rationale for it, initially, was to stop someone like Trump from getting elected. That it, it was meant to allow the for those appointed to cast the votes to reject who states actually voted for, if the states voted for someone unfit for office. You know, as they did in 2016 for Trump. But since its inception, it has been a rubber stamp. The hypothetical use case has never been enacted and never will be. That is obvious after it was not used on Trump.

The first thing you should consider is that simple popular vote was raised and defeated. So was one state, one vote or one state, two votes, which is how the Continental Congress operated.

Less populous states were afraid the more populous states could control everything. Since this took place at the shortly after the French Revolution, the prospect of mob rule was in the background. This is why the legislature was divided into two houses--one strictly by statehood and the other by population. Alexander Hamilton said in Federalist papers #68,

The mode of appointment of the Chief Magistrate of the United States is almost the only part of the system, of any consequence, which has escaped without severe censure, or which has received the slightest mark of approbation from its opponents. The most plausible of these, who has appeared in print, has even deigned to admit that the election of the President is pretty well guarded. I venture somewhat further, and hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent. It unites in an eminent degree all the advantages, the union of which was to be wished for.

It was a well accepted compromise at the time of the writing, following an extensive dialog carried out in newspapers. The final form of the EC simply adds the House and Senate, giving high population states a bigger say in the final outcome but maintaining a voice for smaller states. If you have any interest in history, check out the Federalist papers and the ant-federalists. It's interesting stuff.

One thing that could be done without amending the Constitution, is to enlarge the House of Representatives. The size is set by law and not by the Constitution.

J

[frae]

This is beside the point. Almost all of Biden's paths include Pennsylvania, just like almost all of Trump's paths include Florida. If Biden wins Florida, Pennsylvania is already in the bag and vice versa.

My point was, give me a path to a Trump win that doesn't include him winning FL? Biden can lose FL and PA and have a realistic chance of winning two of GA, AZ or NC because those demos do not mean if he loses PA and FL he loses MI and WI as those states are not identical to PA so losing PA does not mean Biden loses there. Trump has almost a singular path of states he can win to get to 270.

[DMT]

My point was, give me a path to a Trump win that doesn't include him winning FL? Biden can lose FL and PA and have a realistic chance of winning two of GA, AZ or NC because those demos do not mean if he loses PA and FL he loses those. MI and WI are not identical to PA so losing PA does not mean Biden loses there. Trump has almost a singular path of states he can win to get to 270.

Dude, you gotta bust out your FIFTH grade math skills!

[revo]

https://triblive.com/opinion/paul-ke...likely-win-pa/

This article is a great example that the Trump voter is no longer "shy." GOP supporters love to have it both ways: the polls are not accurate because Trump voters are shy, but also the polls are not accurate because look at all the yard signs that show Trump enthusiasm.

[Hornsby]

This article is a great example that the Trump voter is no longer "shy." GOP supporters love to have it both ways: the polls are not accurate because Trump voters are shy, but also the polls are not accurate because look at all the yard signs that show Trump enthusiasm.

They never were shy Trump voters, IMO. If anyone is a shy voter, it's Biden/Harris voters, simply because of the irrational behavior of many Trumpsters. Who needs to deal with that crap? They tried to intimidate a VP candidate, and Texas LEO's did nothing about it.

[onejayhawk]

They never were shy Trump voters, IMO. If anyone is a shy voter, it's Biden/Harris voters, simply because of the irrational behavior of many Trumpsters. Who needs to deal with that crap? They tried to intimidate a VP candidate, and Texas LEO's did nothing about it.

That's a pot and kettle argument. Both sides try to intimidate the other side.

What was Texas law enforcement supposed to do? Right to assemble is 1st amendment and it was a lot more peaceful than BLM/Antifa last summer.

My point was, give me a path to a Trump win that doesn't include him winning FL? Biden can lose FL and PA and have a realistic chance of winning two of GA, AZ or NC because those demos do not mean if he loses PA and FL he loses MI and WI as those states are not identical to PA so losing PA does not mean Biden loses there. Trump has almost a singular path of states he can win to get to 270.

You can take Florida out of Trump's 2016 column and he still wins. I suspect your paths for Biden are similar, ie winning states that are redder than Pennsylvania.

This article is a great example that the Trump voter is no longer "shy." GOP supporters love to have it both ways: the polls are not accurate because Trump voters are shy, but also the polls are not accurate because look at all the yard signs that show Trump enthusiasm.

There are known cases where Trump supporters try to sandbag the polls by giving Biden and Democrats support. How common this is, I cannot say. The troubling thing is that one such activist had been polled multiple times, five IIRC. That indicates some form of a contact list, which is a very bad thing if you want accuracy.

J

[frae]

My path for Biden to win without PA is what I keep saying. Win MI, WI and 2 of AZ, NC, or GA which are not exactly the same demos as FL and PA and could happen. Losing FL and PA would hurt Biden but AZ and NC are very different from PA and FL and could go the other way to give Biden over 270.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Dude, you gotta bust out your FIFTH grade math skills!

Sharpie Math

[gcstomp]

Not sure where to fit this, group of 200 led by pastor, peacefully walking from church to polls, were, without warning, pepper sprayed. Group was, of course, almost all black, andsome young children were among thosse pepper sprayed. https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...olls/24670213/

This seems to be a feature, not a bug. This was deliberate, there was no action that set off law enforcement, just the fact they were dark skinned, and so you can do whatever without consequence, is a selling point for trump supporters. Tuesday, specifically tuesday night after 7 pm est, I predict a long night of violence, egged on by FOX, by trump, supported by law enforcement who may hand out well wishes and waters to "militia".