Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

Michael Moore says that all of your polls are wrong.

Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore is sounding the alarm five days before Election Day, strongly suggesting that polls showing Joe Biden in a comfortable lead against President Trump are not accurate.

During his appearance on The Hill TV's "Rising," Moore began by calling it "awful news" that Biden was ahead of Trump by seven points in his home state of Michigan and explained how Trump managed to cut Biden's lead "in half," citing another poll that had the Democratic nominee "16 points" ahead of the president.

"Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where- what are they saying this morning?... 'Biden's five points ahead in Wisconsin... maybe three points ahead in Florida, two points ahead in Arizona'... Listen, don't believe these polls,'" Moore said. "The Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters- when they actually call the Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the 'Deep State' calling them and asking them who they're voting for."

Polls are "fake news" to Trump supporters, he said.

"So it is not an accurate count. I think the safe thing to do, this is not scientific... whatever they're saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you're within the four-point margin of error. That's how close this is! That's how desperately close this is!"

Moore also referred to Trump as an "evil genius" for his ability to win the election.

Back in August, the Oscar-winning documentarian warned Democrats about the enthusiasm gap between the Biden base and the Trump base.

"I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much," Moore wrote in a Facebook post. "Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!"

Moore was one of the rare liberal voices who famously predicted Trump's victory in the 2016 election.

I think there may be some truth to that, although I believe Biden 100% has more people across the country and where it counts that support him than Trump does. That said, if Dems believe the polls, it could also lead to lower turn out. But I just do not see that happening this time.. Any Dem who does not find a way to vote in 2020 after what happened in 2016 is an idiot or does not really care if Trump wins again. I for one have always assumed the polls are at least a little off in favor of Biden, because of those paranoid Trump voters who are cagey in polls. I'd hope every Dem feels the same and votes. You cannot take this result for granted. Again, 2016 should have taught every voter that.

[frae]

Strange as it is for me to agree with anything Michael Moore says, he may have a point. Biden is shown up 11-13 points in Minnesota, yet he's going there. And it's not to campaign for the Senate race.

There's only two possibilities for this - either Biden's internal polling is telling them a whole different message about Minnesota than the polls fivethirtyeight are using, or his campaign staff are idiots wasting time and effort when they could be working Georgia, a state that's very possible to turn. Overall, his campaign staff has done reasonably well - certainly much better than Clinton's did in 2016 - so I suspect the former.

Minnesota if we are strictly following 538 is actually more likely for Trump than MI and WI, the problem for Trump is MN is 93/100 for Biden, WI is 94/100 for Biden and MI is 96/100 for Biden. All 3 states are basically being projected as 8 point races. So I won't play Chicken Little here for Biden and will say maybe they want to just show a state they haven't visited often some love that has close enough demos to MI and WI that they don't want to get Clinton 16 accusations.

MN

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

WI

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

MI

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/

[frae]

For comparisons sake I went back and looked at the final 538 model for 2016 and obviously HRC was a favorite in all the "blue wall" states, but the probabilities are better today...

PA 2016 77 PA 2020 86

WI 2016 83.5 WI 2020 94

MI 2016 78.9 MI 2020 96

MN 2016 85 MN 2020 93

Your change in probability vary, but the odds are up and with other outs available to Biden that weren't to Clinton, AZ, GA, TX, NC, and IA to go with OH and FL as options Biden has multiple ways to 270 and Trump really has only one path and that path is defend the 2016 map enough where he doesn't drop below 270 as he has no states to gain ground.

[revo]

"President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year.

According to a series of battleground state polls conducted and released in the week following the last Trump-Biden debate, the president’s chances of winning a second term now require winning states where he still trails with only days to go until voting concludes."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/trump-chances-polling-433657

Now could it happen again? Sure, but I'm not buying the "shy Trump voter" logic. I'm sorry, after four years, they're anything but shy. Heck, my church administrator, a kindly older lady who lives on the next street from me and who's house I would pass on my walks, is proudly flying a Trump flag. So puhleeeze, they're supposed to be embarrassed about talking to a stranger on the other line or a bot?

I'll say it again -- if the polls are wrong this time, then they need to pack it up and exit the business, because they just don't know what they're doing.

[Sour Masher]

Minnesota if we are strictly following 538 is actually more likely for Trump than MI and WI, the problem for Trump is MN is 93/100 for Biden, WI is 94/100 for Biden and MI is 96/100 for Biden. All 3 states are basically being projected as 8 point races. So I won't play Chicken Little here for Biden and will say maybe they want to just show a state they haven't visited often some love that has close enough demos to MI and WI that they don't want to get Clinton 16 accusations.

MN

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

WI

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

MI
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/michigan/

I don't want to be Chicken Little either, except to the extent that I really hope some Dems don't all think this is in the bag and decide not to vote.

But don't you see some merit in the idea that the polls, like in 2016, could possibly be undercounting Trump supporters to at least some degree? There are some contrarian polls showing Trump doing much better than the A rated polls you rely on. Maybe it would help me feel better if I understood how that grading system works. Because I know Trafalgar is not an A rated poll and is widely dismissed in polling circles, despite the fact that unlike some A rated polls, they got Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016. And they have Trump ahead of Biden in those states now. So, why should they be completely dismissed? And why do they get these results when other polls do not? If Trump voters are shy, like they say, why do they tell Trafalgar pollsters their vote? I don't get it.

From the article linked to and quoted below, all I can see is that people like Nate Silver with 538 and Wasserman with Cook dismiss Cahaly as clueless, because his results are so out of line with their own. That in itself is not actually evidence that he is clueless. How can they actually evaluate him, since Trafalgar does not disclose their methods? Of course, not disclosing their methods is shady too, and without seeing their work, it is reasonable to assume their methods are flawed. But again, they have Trump up in many key states, and were one of the few who were right about those states in 2016. I'm not saying they are right this time, but help me understand how a poll like that should be dismissed entirely? On what grounds?

From the article: "Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly says there is a hidden Trump vote that is not being accounted for in polls that show Biden on a glide path to the White House.

"There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it's not even a contest," Cahaly said, adding that it's "quite possible" that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver and Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman are among those deeply skeptical of Cahaly's polling.

Both have dug into the crosstabs of Trafalgar polls and pointed to questionable breakdowns as evidence Trafalgar doesn't know what it's doing. For instance, the crosstabs in a Michigan poll, which are no longer online, appeared to show Trump leading Biden by 8 points among young voters, a Democratic stronghold.

"[Trafalgar] doesn't disclose their 'proprietary digital methods' so I can't really evaluate what they're doing," said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research. "They're far enough out on a limb that a year from now, we'll all remember if they were very right or very wrong."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-circle-debate

[Sour Masher]

More from that same article. It seems one difference in the Trump favored polls is a heavier reliance on asking round about questions and relying on those answers. So, instead of counting who says they will vote for,, they count, "who do you think your friends, families, and neighbors will vote for." I see some logic to that, if you assume there are shy Trump voters afraid to admit they are voting for a racist. They say, well, I will vote for Biden, but everyone I know will vote for Trump. It does make some sense that those people could be lying and using that question as a way to express their true community shared preferences.

"That said, Trafalgar is not the only contrarian voice in polling. Several other pollsters have joined it in arguing that other pollsters are missing pro-Trump voters.

Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research has been another proponent of the “submerged” Trump voter theory.

A recent Susquehanna survey of Wisconsin found Trump and Biden tied, making it the only poll to not show Biden in the lead in the Badger State since August, when the Trafalgar Group found Trump ahead by 1 point. In Florida, Susquehanna shows Trump leading by 4 points, while the FiveThirtyEight average gives Biden a 2-point advantage.

“There are a lot of voters out there that don't want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist. That submerged Trump factor is very real,” Lee said this week on WFMZ’s Business Matters. “We have been able to capture it and I’m really disappointed others have not.”

The University of Southern California’s Dornsife Center is publishing results from its regular national poll but is also using parallel “experimental” questions asking people who they think their social contacts are voting for and who they think will win their home state."

[chancellor]

Minnesota if we are strictly following 538 is actually more likely for Trump than MI and WI, the problem for Trump is MN is 93/100 for Biden, WI is 94/100 for Biden and MI is 96/100 for Biden. All 3 states are basically being projected as 8 point races. So I won't play Chicken Little here for Biden and will say maybe they want to just show a state they haven't visited often some love that has close enough demos to MI and WI that they don't want to get Clinton 16 accusations.

And Georgia is 57 to 58 Biden. Logic would indicate if the polls are accurate, you burn your last week in states like Georgia that may turn the tide.

It's not like Biden hasn't hit the Midwest; given COVID limitations he's done pretty decently and certainly much better than Clinton in '16. There's only one reason this late they'd be sending Biden to Minnesota, and that's because they don't believe the numbers right now. Well, they could be stupid, but I don't think that's the case.

In addition, the Trump campaign that had pulled most all of its money out of Minnesota a month or so ago just logged a major air buy section there. And he's going in person.

All this points to signs that show both campaigns still think Minnesota's in play.

[Sour Masher]

I hope the contrarian, low rated polls are dead wrong. But I also hope every single Dem voter is as paranoid as me and goes out in votes no matter who long the lines are. Because one thing I think we can all agree on, even if we cannot be sure of the size of Trump's base, we know how dedicated they are. They will be out there voting.

[revo]

I don't want to be Chicken Little either, except to the extent that I really hope some Dems don't all think this is in the bag and decide not to vote.

With early voting breaking records across various states, I'm sure this isn't the case.


Trafalgar Group is a Republican-sponsored polling group. While they don't always show what the GOP wants to hear, and they have done decent since 2016, they also miscalled many races too. They had Ted Cruz beating Beto by 9.5% when it was 2.3%. They had Kemp beating Abrams by 12.5% when he won by only 1.5%.

Rasmussen, another pollster with a heavy GOP bias, got it right in 2016 but blew it in 2018.


Also, the polls in 2018 were the most accurate in decades across all races. Only a couple of notable races (Florida gov & senate) went opposite of what most pollsters had, but most polls had it close throughout.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/politics/2018-midterm-elections-good-year-polls/index.html

[frae]

I don't have much to offer you except that it's either every A rated poll is wrong (sure it can happen but even in 2016 the A rated polls did nail the national average) or Trafalgar is wrong. I am going to trust guys like Nate and Dave to tell me who is doing reliable work and who maybe got lucky and is just hoping to be right again without any scientific data to back them up.

[DMT]

The last minute SCOTUS ruling about mail-in ballots in MN not counting if received after election day is more likely why they're both heading there. More votes is trouble for Republicans, even Trump knows that!

[frae]

And Georgia is 57 to 58 Biden. Logic would indicate if the polls are accurate, you burn your last week in states like Georgia that may turn the tide.

It's not like Biden hasn't hit the Midwest; given COVID limitations he's done pretty decently and certainly much better than Clinton in '16. There's only one reason this late they'd be sending Biden to Minnesota, and that's because they don't believe the numbers right now. Well, they could be stupid, but I don't think that's the case.

In addition, the Trump campaign that had pulled most all of its money out of Minnesota a month or so ago just logged a major air buy section there. And he's going in person.

All this points to signs that show both campaigns still think Minnesota's in play.

We will see, but I don't see poll driven data to support MN being in play.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks Frae. That totally looks like someone making stuff up there, so it makes me feel better. I got worried by that second point that other polls are using round about ways to tease out shy Trump voters. What can we make, if anything, about a larger percentage of people saying they think their friends and family will vote for Trump and that Trump will win than people who say they will actually vote for Trump? Is that just pessimism on their part? I guess it could be and we still have to trust the number of people who actually say they will vote for one or the other.

[umjewman]

And Georgia is 57 to 58 Biden. Logic would indicate if the polls are accurate, you burn your last week in states like Georgia that may turn the tide.

It's not like Biden hasn't hit the Midwest; given COVID limitations he's done pretty decently and certainly much better than Clinton in '16. There's only one reason this late they'd be sending Biden to Minnesota, and that's because they don't believe the numbers right now. Well, they could be stupid, but I don't think that's the case.

In addition, the Trump campaign that had pulled most all of its money out of Minnesota a month or so ago just logged a major air buy section there. And he's going in person.

All this points to signs that show both campaigns still think Minnesota's in play.

I mean, it could just be that after HRC just ignored the Midwest and took it for granted that they want to just shore it up. I mean, after all, you flip WI, MI and PA and everything else stays the same, it's a D victory. What was it, 80,000 votes? It's nice to add new states to the margin of victory, of course, but I can certainly see working to just shore of the more likely D states to get over the 270 hump.

The only thing that is certain is that Tuesday is going to be a complete shitshow and there will be legal challenges on both sides for weeks. It's going to be exhausting.

[Sour Masher]

One minor issue that annoys me about ballots in NY (they don't do this in KY and FL). Many candidates are listed twice under different parties. I have no idea why, especially since if you fill in two bubbles for the same candidate, your vote is invalidated. Can someone explain it to me? This will not mattered in NY, but Biden was listed twice, as a Dem and as working families I think. Trump was listed once, unlike last time when he was a R and a conservative (the same as the other Rs on the ballot). So, there will be a small number of Biden votes not counted because someone who did not read the directions will bubble in where ever they see his name, and the same won't be true for Trump this time. Most candidates are listed multiple times under multiple "parties."

It seems idiotic to me. What advantage is there in doing that? I have read the history of it--electoral fusion. But it seems outdated and dumb to me.