Election 2020

[heyelander]

(not meaning this directed at Revo at all)

I wish I was a NY, LA, Dallas or Notre Dame fan... the kinds of fandoms that expect their teams to win. The Phlly sports fan in me is 95% sure Trump wins this thing and I'm already despondent about it.

[Ken]

(not meaning this directed at Revo at all)

I wish I was a NY, LA, Dallas or Notre Dame fan... the kinds of fandoms that expect their teams to win. The Phlly sports fan in me is 95% sure Trump wins this thing and I'm already despondent about it.

Dallas? Is this 1995 again?

[revo]

(not meaning this directed at Revo at all)

I wish I was a NY, LA, Dallas or Notre Dame fan... the kinds of fandoms that expect their teams to win. The Phlly sports fan in me is 95% sure Trump wins this thing and I'm already despondent about it.

Yeah, Notre Dame also hasn't won a championship since 1988! And BTW, neither have my Dodgers!

Why should the bad guys win 2 in a row? Why should 2020 be good for them but not for us? Heck, since they're a bunch of science deniers, they already think the whole covid thing is a hoax, so they've already won!

[chancellor]

Hmmmm I am going to need something to go on, where have you seen it? What I have read is Wisconsin doesn't even track party affiliation of absentee/mail ballots....

The +6 is off TargetSmart on 10/26. I'm not familiar with them, but the chart has been posted in a number of blogs I read - 36D/42R/22 Not Reporting. I've seen a recent update from late today that changes it to +3 Democratic, but I don't have a site.

The +2 was from St. Norbert's college, which did polling of early voters. I'll see if I can find the local news link; it was discussed on one of the local Green Bay stations morning show.

It's definitely early voting results.

[heyelander]

Yeah, Notre Dame also hasn't won a championship since 1988! And BTW, neither have my Dodgers!

Why should the bad guys win 2 in a row? Why should 2020 be good for them but not for us? Heck, since they're a bunch of science deniers, they already think the whole covid thing is a hoax, so they've already won!

I don't think all the losing has changed the mindset though. Fans expect to win. (the dodgers sucking hasn't changed the entitlement of Laker's fans for sure). As a Philly fan, I'm always just waiting for the bottom to fall out of things.

[revo]

The +6 is off TargetSmart on 10/26. I'm not familiar with them, but the chart has been posted in a number of blogs I read - 36D/42R/22 Not Reporting. I've seen a recent update from late today that changes it to +3 Democratic, but I don't have a site.

The +2 was from St. Norbert's college, which did polling of early voters. I'll see if I can find the local news link; it was discussed on one of the local Green Bay stations morning show.

It's definitely early voting results.

TargetSmart has it 41D/37R/22 Not Reporting.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=WI

In all the battleground states, they have it 46D/44R/10NR, which according to their models represents a gain of 3.5 for the Dems and a loss of 5.8 for the GOP over 2018 early voting percentages.


Meanwhile, from the same site, PA has seen a tremendous rise in early voting from Dems:
64D/28R/8NR with 28% of the 2016 total vote already in the door.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=PA

[Sour Masher]

Still not sure what will happen in SC with Graham. I feel like the he will pull it out, but Harrison sure is giving it all he has. Here is yet another LP ad reminding us what Graham thought of Trump before he decided to sell his soul. Since I know I beat this horse a lot, I want to add something none of these ads touch on and I haven't mentioned before as part of my fuel for wanting to see him gone. And that is his long time "political marriage," as he called it, to his friend and mentor John McCain. Trump continually spat on that man's legacy and then memory and Graham still grinned and bore it, defending the man he knows is a giant balloon full of trash water. Just like Cruz being in his corner despite Trump calling his wife ugly and his father a murderer. GOP voters may respect the party above all attitudes of these guys, but I can't stand that they know how vile Trump is and still "stand back and stand by" him. They could have signed off on the legislation they agreed with without defending the man, deflecting attacks and playing politics as usual. They could have fought him tooth and nail to make sure that when his term was done a better man took his spot to run. But they didn't and they will have to live with supporting and protecting Trump. I doubt Cruz is going anywhere any time soon, but it would be grand to see Graham pay the price.

[Sour Masher]

I feel like a LP cheerleader in here, and I want to reiterate in posting this one that I understand they are Republicans. I understand that I do not agree with them on many things. I understand the neo-con roots for some of them. I understand they want a seat at the table. But I take them at face value from this interview I missed a couple of weeks ago that they would have supported Sanders against Trump if he were the nominee. They say they disagree with his economics but respect the man and would have been an ally to him. I believe it. Their disgust with Trump runs that deep, their recognition that Trump represents a threat to our democracy means they would stand with even someone they fundamentally disagree with in Sanders shows they know what is at stake here, and that is what I like about them. They put party aside to fight a man whose threat to America is greater than party. I hope they represent a significant voting block of moderate Republicans and the blue tide sweeps away Trump and all his cronies.

[frae]

My how do we get a winner on election night thoughts. PA and WI are very unlikely to be called with both Republican held state legislatures not coming to an agreement on counting early ballots before election day. So you would probably (yes outside chance there is a landslide in either state that allows a call) need to find a way to 270 without those two states.

For Trump to get to 270 on election night if you go with the 2016 map he can get there but he has to keep MI and AZ which I think are the two most likely states to flip if you throw out PA and WI. If he loses either of AZ or MI the only ways to 260 on the night of would require some combo of NV and ME or MN. I don't think either of those will happen even with polling errors but that's all I see.

So how can Biden win the night of? I have Biden at 248 on election night almost certainly, 2016 map + MI. So he needs 22 electoral votes to go over the top.

Only one state out there can end the election by itself assuming what I have above happened and that is FL. FL does usually count quickly at least so if the margin is 1+ points we could end it all there. If FL goes to Trump Biden still needs 22, so what are the most likely ways to get there the night of after FL.

1. NC and AZ - This is the best duo to bet on if Biden misses FL. This would be 275/277 depending on NE-2 and ME-2

2. Any 2 of of NC,GA, or AZ - just expanding #1 to include GA comboing with either NC or AZ

3. NC + IA + NE2 or ME 2

4. GA + IA

5 OH and any other state (NE-2 and ME -2 even together won't do it)

6 For KS - TX

OK I think that is it, come on FL let's make up for 2000 and give me a reason to like you on election night.

[frae]

All the one poll caveats, but holy cow batman, Biden leads Trump in the highly rated ABC/WaPo poll 57-40 in WI! Biden also leads in the same poll in MI 51-44. Women are fleeing Trump in droves right now, in WI it is 64-34 among women for Biden and in MI it is 60-36.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/covid-surge-hurts-trump-wisconsin-biden-leads-closer/story?id=73834112

NYT Sienna will be in MI today and Marq Univ will have one out in WI later today so we will see more, but the spike in COVID cases in the upper midwest and the bottom falling out for Trump among women is going to be hard to overcome.

[frae]

One poll or not it moved the 538 avg all the way to 94/100 for Biden in WI and jumped his polling avg to 52.4-43.4. It is now more likely than MI on the 538 scale.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

[frae]

Maybe KS is onto something, it's happening...

[DMT]

I'm sure Trump abandoning hundreds of supporters in the freezing cold in Omaha is going to play well.

https://www.newsweek.com/omaha-trump-rally-attendees-stranded-several-taken-hospital-suffering-hypothermia-1542741

Backers of President Donald Trump were left stranded overnight, with several taken to hospital for hypothermia after an Omaha campaign rally ended in chaos.

[frae]

The rating change of Texas now makes 10 states that Trump carried in 2016 now in the Toss up or Lean D category plus both Maine 2 and Nebraska 2. That is a lot of defense being played. The Democrats only have 3 states on this list and they are still in the lean D, NH, MN and NV.

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-10/EC%20Ratings.102820.pdf

[Gregg]

What percentage of the voting population do you think are on the fence and aren't sure of who they are voting for.

Total for all sides less than 1% is my guess. Nothing based in fact or science. I just think everyone who is intent on voting today already knows who they are voting for.