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Originally posted by revo
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Eh, I don't think those "principles" were ever very strong to begin with. They've always been concerned primarily with protecting wealth and power for their donors.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige -
and now Trump is just worried about his wealth and powerOriginally posted by DMT View Post“There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday
"It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock
"I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet
Have I told you about otters being the only marine animal that can lift rocks?Comment
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The latest polls are depressing. Trump is closing the gap in 9 of 12 swing states, and Dems are losing ground in some key senate races. What on earth, is happening in the Kelly McSally race? I thought he had it in the bag, but some polls are showing him going from a 13 pt lead to now being behind. I don't get it--why the sudden, steep drop?Comment
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Some good advice for those trying to get last minute MAGA converts. Basic stuff, really, but good reminder. Don't attack. Find out someone's own values and point out how Trump contradicts those values. Data doesn't convince people. Asking people what they care about and pointing out how that is in contradiction to what Trump does is the best path.
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Where are you seeing that on Trump?Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
There's the Insider Advantage poll in Pennsylvania, the Siena College poll in Texas, and the Rasmussen poll in Florida, those three all very favorable for Trump. Otherwise I don't see much movement toward him in the swing states."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...Comment
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Ah, thanks. That article is comparing over the last week, and that might be true. I don't think there's been any substantial movement toward Trump in the last couple days worth of polls (and of course polls are lagging indicators).Originally posted by heyelander View Post
I still think Texas is going to be super close, within 1-2 points, with high turnout driving some chance of a narrow Biden victory, but the Siena College poll is giving me some pause on that. Many of the other recent polls in Texas have Biden even or up by 1 point."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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Many believe Kelly's campaign has had some pretty serious unforced errors recently - some pretty bad/ineffective ads, an unconvincing answer to McSally's charges his businesses are too involved with China, and his campaign spokesperson having tweets calling police "worthless f---ing pigs" all haven't helped.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI'm just here for the baseball.
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If the campaign spokesperson tweets revelation is recent, that explains a lot, I guess.Originally posted by chancellor View PostComment
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10/15, I believe.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI'm just here for the baseball.Comment
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I see almost no movement in Arizona in the forecast model it has been pretty regularly at 78%, the high was 80% and is at 78% today. The only favorable poll for McSally is a Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen had the Republicans holding the house in 2018 so not exactly someone whose polling data is reliable. The other good poll was a C rated Susq. poll for McSally. The last two A rated or better polls have Kelly up 8 and 11. This is a lean D race for sure
The pres. continues to be very steady despite everyone wanting to say things will tighten. The 538 model keeps the race at 87/12/1 tie. 88 has been the high and listening to Nate's podcast the model may move to Biden if nothing else changes over this week because when there are no other events to happen you have to lean more on the polls.
The media wants a tight race but the national average is 9.4 today which is down from 10.7 and in swing states I am not seeing movement that matters in those swing states. Here are the 3 states that still matter most and they are outside the MOE. As Nate pointed out a MOE can go both ways not just Trumps way.
Scroll down these links and look at polling avg not just the models projection.
PA avg Biden +5
WI avg Biden + 7
MI avg Biden +7
So look anyone can write an article and cherry pick polls that make the argument they want, but look at polling data as a whole. Check back in Friday and when Biden is still near 87 remember Clinton was down to 65 on that day and this isn't 2016 and Biden has much better favorable and has been hammering PA with visits and ads.
We can all worry for plenty of reasons, but again the math is still in Biden's favor and the clock is running out for Trump.Comment
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And unlike 2016, the amount of votes already sent in via mail or done through early voting is much larger. A late game surprise may not have anything close to the impact of Comey's investigation announcement.Comment
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People may wonder why I keep bringing up the numbers in Texas. The popular narrative is that if Texas goes blue, then the whole country will have gone blue, and it won't matter. I'm not quite convinced that's the case. I think there is a chance that Texas is bluer in this election than one or more of the supposedly more important swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. I don't think it's necessarily >50% likely, but it's a lot more likely than people are giving it credit for. I think if this election unexpectedly tightens a little bit in the final week, that Texas could be the swing state."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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I don't think I'm entirely without credibility on this. I've been consistent for a couple years now that no challenger had a snowball's chance in hell of defeating John Cornyn for Senate, even when others here expressed such hopes.
I think the presidential race in Texas this year hinges on turnout, and early turnout has been really high. I know it's been high everywhere, but in Texas it's been really high, and Texas being a solid red state in the past has hinged on it being a very low turnout state.
Trump's chances of holding Texas depend on that early turnout having been the Democrats shifting their vote from election day. All the granular data I've seen at county level does not support that conclusion, but I guess we will know for sure in 8 or 9 days."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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I hope you are right, but I can't seem to bring myself to really believe it is possible. The last time Texas went blue was in 76 for Carter, the year before I was born. Since then it hasn't been close, and even Trump, who got the lowest percentage for a Repub in my lifetime still won by 9 pts. So, for me Texas has always been as red as steer meat, and I can't see it any other way. It would certainly shake things up nationally if Texas became a legit swing state, though.Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostComment
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