Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

A calm, but devastating in its use of fact, a hard hitting video narrated by Stephen Fry to show the importance of getting out to vote. The threat of Trump's "shy" supporters is real, in part, because of the point he makes to start the video--compassion fade. People are dying every day, so paradoxically, many care less about each life lost, allowing Trump's supporters to ignore the devasting toll he has taken on our population.

[madducks]

A calm, but devastating in its use of fact, a hard hitting video narrated by Stephen Fry to show the importance of getting out to vote. The threat of Trump's "shy" supporters is real, in part, because of the point he makes to start the video--compassion fade. People are dying every day, so paradoxically, many care less about each life lost, allowing Trump's supporters to ignore the devasting toll he has taken on our population.

LOL at the end of that video.

Trump Supporter: Yes, i'm doing much better. I'm literally making four times as much as i was making when Obama was president.

Interviewer: What do you do?

Trump Supporter: I work for a debt relief company.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I wonder if the Republican Party's voter suppression efforts are paradoxically backfiring on them.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10...oting-records/

[Kevin Seitzer]

I have trouble understanding what X% probability of winning means, the way 538.com explains things. I get that they're trying to cast it as a dice roll, or whatever, but that doesn't make any sense to me.

However, if I take their state polling averages, here's what I see, listing the middle group of states from most favorable to Trump to least favorable by polling margin:

Indiana 10.4
Kansas 9
Montana 7.8
South Carolina 7.3
Missouri 6.5
Alaska 5.8
Ohio 1.1
Texas 0.7
Georgia -0.9
Iowa -1.2
Maine 2 -2.1
North Carolina -2.8
Arizona -3.1
Florida -3.2
Pennsylvania -6
Wisconsin -6.3
Nevada -6.3
Nebraska2 -6.8
Michigan -7.4
Minnesota -7.7
New Hampshire -11.2
Virginia -11.6

If I give Trump everything down through Florida, that gets him to 259 electoral votes. In order to get 269+, he needs to also get one of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10) , or Wisconsin (10). I can believe 3-point polling errors going Trump's way. It's a little harder, though not impossible, to believe 6- and 7-point polling errors going Trump's way.

It does seem like there's the possibility of big turnout in this election. Some forecasters are projecting 64-65% turnout. That is definitely something that could break polling models. Again, though, it's hard to see how big turnout would favor Republicans.

My head says Biden is in good position to win. If you just take the straight polling averages, that's Biden 357 and Trump 181, and of those Trump has 56 votes within 2% (Ohio and Texas), and Biden has 22 votes within 2% (Iowa and Georgia). Within 5% you add no Trump votes but another 56 Biden votes (Maine 2, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida). So that seems fairly safe? My heart is afraid it won't turn out that way.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Real Clear Politics doesn't have quite as complete a set of polling averages, but what they do, the picture is similar to 538, but just a hair more favorable to Trump:

Texas 4
Ohio 0.6
Georgia -0.8
Iowa -0.8
North Carolina -1.5
Florida -1.5
Arizona -2.4
Wisconsin -4.6
Pennsylvania -5.1
Nevada -5.2
Minnesota -6
Michigan -7.8
New Hampshire -11
Maine -11

In particular, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania move a point or two closer.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I think 538's poll weighting is probably more accurate on balance than RCP's straight polling average, but I wouldn't necessarily say that I trust 538 with that completely. I think sometimes they do stupid stuff just because a linear regression tells them to do it.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Harris County, Texas (home of Houston) had recorded 1.09 million early votes as of the end of voting on Thursday. Early voting extends through Friday, October 30. The total vote in the 2016 general election in Harris County was 1.34 million, and the early vote in that election was 950k votes. The population has obviously grown somewhat since 2016 (by an estimated 143k residents), but voter registration is also at an all-time high (up from 2.23 million registered voters in 2016 to 2.47 million in 2020).

County election officials are projecting that ultimate turnout could be in the range of 1.7 million votes.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Texas as a whole has seen a big increase in voter registration for this election cycle.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/houston/article/harris-county-voter-roll-grows-record-turnout-15639402.php

The Texas Secretary of State’s Office has yet to confirm a final tally of registered voters from all 254 counties. The current count stands at 16.9 million, an increase of 12 percent, or 1.8 million, since four years ago.

[Kevin Seitzer]

You don't know how much I would love to see Biden carry the state of Texas. I haven't had this much hope for a statewide Democratic candidate since...well, since I moved to Texas a couple decades ago, I guess. I thought Beto would be close against Ted Cruz, and it was, but I didn't really expect Beto to win that. I think it's very close to breakeven for Biden in Texas, and I'm mildly hopeful the huge turnout is going to push him over the top. If I were a betting man, I'd probably still bet on Trump, but oh, how delicious a Biden win here would be. It would wipe some of the smugness off the faces of the Texas GOP and hopefully curtail some of the ways they feel free to run roughshod over the law and common decency (e.g., our current state attorney general, who is under indictment, fired a couple of whistleblowers from his office this week). In the past, they have had no fear of losing statewide elections to the Democrats, so they operate with impunity, regardless of how bad it might look to voters.

[Steve 2.0]

You don't know how much I would love to see Biden carry the state of Texas. I haven't had this much hope for a statewide Democratic candidate since...well, since I moved to Texas a couple decades ago, I guess. I thought Beto would be close against Ted Cruz, and it was, but I didn't really expect Beto to win that. I think it's very close to breakeven for Biden in Texas, and I'm mildly hopeful the huge turnout is going to push him over the top. If I were a betting man, I'd probably still bet on Trump, but oh, how delicious a Biden win here would be. It would wipe some of the smugness off the faces of the Texas GOP and hopefully curtail some of the ways they feel free to run roughshod over the law and common decency (e.g., our current state attorney general, who is under indictment, fired a couple of whistleblowers from his office this week). In the past, they have had no fear of losing statewide elections to the Democrats, so they operate with impunity, regardless of how bad it might look to voters.

I can not STAND Ted Cruz. My redneck, right-wing brother loves him.

[Sour Masher]

Texas as a whole has seen a big increase in voter registration for this election cycle.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/pol...t-15639402.php

This ruling might put a damper on Texas voting: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/te...y0A?li=BBnb7Kz

[Kevin Seitzer]

This ruling might put a damper on Texas voting: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/te...y0A?li=BBnb7Kz

While it's stupid that the Republicans are fighting to suppress the vote that way, I think that will ultimately have a minimal effect in terms of overall numbers. It sucks for the small number of people who will be inconvenienced by that a lot, and for the larger number of people who will be inconvenienced a little. But I would assume, also, that in this election, that if the Republicans are so desperately trying to keep you from voting, wouldn't it motivate you to make sure your vote is counted and that it's against them?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Just to clarify, that prevents the larger Texas counties like Harris (Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) from having multiple drop-off sites for mail-in ballots. You can still mail those ballots. And you can still go to an early voting location, of which there are probably a hundred within Harris County. And you can still go to the central mail-in ballot drop-off site in the county. So it's really only for voters who are unable to get out to an early voting site and who don't trust the Postal Service to return their ballot and can drive a few minutes to a closer drop-off location but not 30-45 minutes to the central drop-off location. Presumably that's a small number. I'm still in favor of facilitating voting for small numbers or people and making it more convenient for everyone. But I think this is a dumb move by the Texas Republicans given all the negative press it is generating for them and how little it is likely to actually suppress the vote (and some substantial fraction of those suppressed votes were likely to be Republican votes, too).

[Kevin Seitzer]

If I were a Republican, I'd be ashamed that my party was doing stuff like this.

I guess that's why I'm not a Republican any more.

[revo]

If I were a Republican, I'd be ashamed that my party was doing stuff like this.

I guess that's why I'm not a Republican any more.

They're pretty much all about shenanigans now. Before Dopey, at least they had principles. But now? 100% shenanigans.