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I do not doubt that money plays a big factor--I'm sure there is evidence that it does. but part of me cannot comprehend why in a case like this. Biden and Trump are completely known quantities. I can't wrap my head around anyone changing their vote based on negative or positive ads for either, but I guess that is because I am refusing to admit that millions of voters are fairly apolitical and can be easily swayed by ads.
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We are talking about Biden being able to out spend trump 3 and 4 to 1 in PA, WI, and MI which when the last election was decided by about 80K in those 3 states I think the advantage matters. Add that to Trump having to spend money in states he didn't plan to spend and I think it is just another small factor pushing the probability to a Biden win.Comment
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How much did Hillary outspend Trump by in 2016. I thought it was about 3-1. The money advantage didn't seem to make any positive difference last cycle. Otherwise, you'd say if money spent in '16 were equal, Trump would have won handily.
Edit to add: i don't think POTUS ads matter nearly as much as less publicized races. They probably determine which groups get the biggest kickbacks and roles in the administration, but otherwise accomplish very little.Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."Comment
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True Hillary way out spent Trump but Trump was not a sitting president and the incumbent should be able to raise money and as I always point out we can't compare 2016 to 2020 Biden isn't Hillary and their favorable/unfavorable are so drastically different that the fundamentals of looking at this race are different. Biden is regularly polling above 50% in state polls and nationally that is not something Hillary did.
We are now past the Clinton peak of 88/100 to win on Oct 17th and in her decline period where she gets all the way down to about a 64/36 favorite, but does anyone see that decline possibly happening to Biden? He might lose, the wrong dice throw might come up, but he isn't going to a 7/10 favorite going into election day there just isn't anything left to move the needle they have tried to get this Hunter Biden thing to stick and it just isn't going to gain any traction. Biden can lose, but the probability on election night to me will not have moved lower than 8/10 with just as strong a chance that it pushes above to 9/10. Listening to the 538 podcast we (the left) are all worried the polls are missing in Biden's favor but the odds are just as equal that the margin of error goes the other way this time and things are +3 from Polling toward Biden.
If you looked at this race from polling, priors, money on hand, and just other actual data points that you can physically look at it is not close on paper, but elections are not decided on paper so I would never tell anyone to feel safe I will just say that from a probability stand point I like where we sit as people supporting Biden.Comment
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I really hope the Dems have the cajones to enact real and much needed changes in line with what the vast majority of Americans want. Most Americans want the EC gone. It is absurd that we have had to presidents lose the popular vote and win the presidency in the last 20 years. It is absurd that we have had Dems win 4 of the 5 last presidential elections, but Republicans have held the WH 12 of 20 years. No one thinks that is fair, but will Dems get rid of the filibuster first, and then tackle that?Comment
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Two of three polls released today has Biden up 3% in Iowa and the only one published for Texas has him tied there.
Three polls released today has Biden up 7-10% in PA. Like GC, I also viewed a Trumptard rally and heard endless honking. But, that's just this county which ultimately matters little in the grand scheme of the state. Or at least that's what I just tell myself!
I don't think anyone is sitting on their couch saying they don't need to show up this year. They know what's at stake. I don't see why, despite all the evidence, everyone feels the Evil Empire will win again. It's time for the good guys to ride in. They did it in March for Biden, time to do it again. Keep the faith!Comment
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jmaeroff just today upped our wager to $150. He loathes Trump but is convinced he's going to cheat and win.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel PaigeComment
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So Rudy G is an actor now
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I was not thrilled with the fascist slogan at my local polling place:
"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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I'm really curious what the Q Storm is, just from a "I'm shaking my head at this lunacy" standpoint, but I really, REALLY do not want to google it.I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...Comment
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According to Politico, Bernie Sanders is interested in becoming Labor Secretary in a Biden regime, should he win.Comment
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Every time he says PA is closed I just want to yell I am teaching in person 4 days a week. We are far from shut down.Comment
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