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If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige -
Some interesting polls today:
- the only 3 published polls today for North Carolina have Biden up 1-3% there
- Dotard favorite Rasmussen Reports has Biden up 3% in PA and OH
But, as my Trumptard brother in law posted on FB today, on this day 4 years ago the NYT had Hillary as a 92% favorite. So no matter how good these polls look, make DAMN SURE you're voting!Comment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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Jamie Harrison ran a brilliant ad with some of his mountains of cash. They highlight the 3rd candidate on the ballot, Bill Bledsoe, who's still on the ballot, but dropped out of the race. They highlight how staunchly conservative Bledsoe is. The attempt is to peel some of Lindsay Graham's voters off to vote for this ultra conservative. Seems like some actual 4-D chess being played.
Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."Comment
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A rated Suffolk poll puts Biden up 49-42 in Pennsylvania it is the first A or better rated poll in the state since the Monmouth Poll had Biden up 8 on Oct 6th. Votes are being cast here now in PA via mail and drop off mail ballots and to me this is the ball game, I have no polling data that tells me that Trump will win MI and WI again so assuming Trump can hang on everywhere else that he won in 2016 (which doesn't seem likely especially NE-2 and even ME-2) he has to win PA as there are no pickup targets out there for him that fix losing PA. If you want to be a Trump optimist and you are seeing him losing all 3 of those midwest states (WI, MI, PA) the only way I see the math working is win everywhere else from 16 and pull out Nevada (the most possible Trump pickup) and somehow win NH (which he was close in 16, but has polled terribly there this cycle). That gets you to 270-268 for Trump and is assuming he wins Arizona, FL, NC, NE-2, ME-2, GA, and OH. I understand 2016 happened, but if the electoral map of 2020 is a poker hand Biden has all the outs and Trump is hoping to hit a single card on the river, could it happen? Yes, but from a probability standpoint you would much rather be Biden.Comment
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There are still paths for Trump to win, even losing Pennsylvania. I did the CBC interactive game and still had Trump winning with 280 while losing Pennsylvania.
Trump can win Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I think those are the only states with polling deficits small enough to be overcome. Trump's advantage with Latinos could deliver him Zona and Florida. Wisconsin threw out 140K early votes on a technicality, so Trump could take it. Do you really trust Michigan as the final state needed to secure a Trump 2nd term?
I'm still very nervous it will be incredibly close, and that would be a disaster. I don't think prognosticating a Biden blowout will help him achieve said blowout. I think it will lead a lot of voters to stay home, given the enthusiasm gap.Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."Comment
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Well my point was I don't see any data where Trump is winning MI or WI right now and especially MI it is over 93/100 and no poll showing him winning except a terrible Trefalgar lean right poll putting him up 1 WI Is at 88/100 so almost 9/10. Trump doesn't have a poll in WI leading since a +1 Trafalgar in August.
You are right if you want to throw MI or WI or both to Trump he has paths, but my main point was I think he loses WI and MI and the poll in PA would be the third key piece to Biden winning. If Trump loses those 3 the path to a Trump win only realistically (as in within the realm of possibility) works through NV and NH both flipping. I don't include MN here because if Trump loses WI and MI I don't see enough of a demo difference in MN to make it any different and it is also over 9/10 for Biden.
The old blue wall to me would end this, but my favorite way to end this on election night is give me a FL call and one of MI/WI. Since PA can't count mail in ballots until 7 AM on election day PA will either be an incredibly late call or even a day or two late depending on how many people we have counting. I am not saying a blowout mind you is the most likely scenario to me if you wanted the most likely scenario I'd say 2016 map but flip PA, WI, MI, NE-2 and AZ. I will never bet on FL, but I'll root for it and I wouldn't want to bet on coin flips in NC, OH, ME-2, GA, and IA.Comment
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I respect your work frae, but have to sour your outlook on "my favorite way to end this on election night is give me a FL call". Just as a floridian on the ground, who just yesterday witnessed a long pro trump caravan roll through my area, and endless honking by other cars showing support, I am not sure why the real on the ground support isnt reflected for trump. But florida is unique not just in cycle after cycle of having issue counting and settling on vote count. But there is more money, more old money, more offshore money, than I suspect anywhere else in country. The trump stronghold not just of monied cronies, but of under the radar support, sits not in NY, as one would think, but in florida.
I hope florida is not needed for decisive electoral total, as I would not count on florida, run by a deeply republican sycophant to trumpism, who will direct mass game playing in ways public, and beyond our watchful eyes, to obscure actual final vote total. I pray we have a blowout and we know winner within a couple days after election, but florida is a sickening trap.
Whatever the factors that would contribute to inaccurate polling, they are present in a deep seated way with trump, and specifically florida.Comment
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Agreed and said I will never count on FL, but if we want this thing to be over by 10 PM est a FL win for Biden is the best path for that. All the other smaller wins out east like WI, MI, or NC give Trump some outs. Ohio is the other interesting one that is running in the coin flip range that if it shifts to Biden would be a death sentence in my mind because if Trump loses OH the demos fit PA, WI, and MI enough that it would be over.Comment
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I have it 291 to 247 right now. That is with Trump winning Fl, Ohio, and NC, but losing MI and WI. I hope for a larger margin of victory and such a landslide that it gets called election night, but I just don't see it. Everyone will be cautious and there will still be a lot of votes to count by then. And I don't see Trump behind enough in states like Fl, Ohio, NC, MI, WI for it to be called a KO the night of.Comment
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Trump is way behind Biden in money...
Joe Biden’s campaign outraised Trump’s by an eye-catching $200 million in September and started October with $177 million in the bank. That's a nearly 3-to-1 edge over Trump’s $63 million, putting Trump at a deficit without parallel in the modern era of campaign financing, especially for a sitting president. The last incumbent to face reelection, Barack Obama, had nearly $100 million left to spend at this point in 2012, while his challenger, Mitt Romney, had almost exactly the amount Trump has left this year.
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