Election 2020

[frae]

Biden announced his September fundraising. 383 million dollars, 5.5 million donors, average of less than $50 a donor. $432 million cash on hand. He definitely will not be running out of money this last month.

[chancellor]

I agree it has happened, but the demos of Ohio seemed to play to Trump well with it lacking the major urban population city of Michigan and Pa to drive it back. Ohio was not long ago probably the most likely tipping point state in elections and 2016 moved it back a bit for 2020 and to the point I don’t think it was a state Dems were expecting to come back in 2020. Maybe a more accurate statement is if Ohio goes to Biden we know the rest of the Midwest 4 (oh, mi, wi, and mn) did too.

Interesting - I see Ohio as a larger version of Wisconsin. There's a very blue core around Columbus (like Madison), and a fairly blue trend in Cinci and Cleveland (like Milwaukee). Remainder of the state leans to strongly red. If the Dems bring out a candidate that will energize the voters of Cinci and Cleveland, in particular, the state is theirs.

Now, whether Biden is the right person or not...well, that's debatable. But a strong candidate like Obama will have to work, but can readily get Ohio.

[frae]

Interesting - I see Ohio as a larger version of Wisconsin. There's a very blue core around Columbus (like Madison), and a fairly blue trend in Cinci and Cleveland (like Milwaukee). Remainder of the state leans to strongly red. If the Dems bring out a candidate that will energize the voters of Cinci and Cleveland, in particular, the state is theirs.

Now, whether Biden is the right person or not...well, that's debatable. But a strong candidate like Obama will have to work, but can readily get Ohio.

My only quibble here is Cincinnati is probably the most conservative “big city” I can think of. Not the city proper but the metro itself is pretty red I think.

[frae]

Interesting Hamilton County pre 2018 had run red for a while it seems but in 2018 this article does show a left shift...

https://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/citywiseblog/how-hamilton-county-got-bluer-politically-while-ohio-became-solid-red/

So maybe cincy metro has seen the same suburbs shift the rest of the country has.

[revo]

Biden announced his September fundraising. 383 million dollars, 5.5 million donors, average of less than $50 a donor. $432 million cash on hand. He definitely will not be running out of money this last month.

It’s amazing that Biden has gone from a candidate who had trouble attracting donations in the primaries to the greatest magnet for donations in US political history.

[revo]

Of the last 17 polls on RCP, 11 are Biden by double digits, 4 more are by 8% or 9%, and only two are Biden by less than that. What's amazing is that of the 100+ polls on RCP since Biden took the commanding lead for the Dems during the primaries, Dump has led in only ONE (a Rasmussen Reports poll, natch).

[heyelander]

It’s amazing that Biden has gone from a candidate who had trouble attracting donations in the primaries to the greatest magnet for donations in US political history.

it's more like money and trump have the same polarity and money is just pushed away from him. (in all sorts of facets of his life)

[frae]

NTY Sienna Poll shows Graham up 6 points 46-40 with 4 going 3rd party. NYT Sienna is an A+ poll and I think the demographics are just coming back home now. SC is still very red and despite some good polling from less highly rated pollsters Harrison will need a big push here. The only thing in his favor is cash he can practically burn it, but not sure it will matter.

[Steve 2.0]

NTY Sienna Poll shows Graham up 6 points 46-40 with 4 going 3rd party. NYT Sienna is an A+ poll and I think the demographics are just coming back home now. SC is still very red and despite some good polling from less highly rated pollsters Harrison will need a big push here. The only thing in his favor is cash he can practically burn it, but not sure it will matter.

When does karma come into play? Jeez, I can not stand Lindsey Graham.

[madducks]

[madducks]

Kamala Harris has suspended her travel through Sunday after her communications director, Liz Allen, and a non-staff flight crew member on her campaign plane contracted the coronavirus.

The Harris campaign, which learned about the results Wednesday night, added neither the senator nor Joe Biden were in close contact with either of the individuals during the 2 days prior to their positive tests. As a result, they say the candidates don't need to quarantine, but "out of an abundance of caution and in line with our campaign's commitment to the highest levels of precaution, we are canceling Senator Harris' travel through Sunday."

[madducks]

Billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and his physician wife, Miriam, poured a whopping $75 million into a super PAC launched in late August to aid President Donald Trump's reelection, new filings show. This is why Biden's successful fund raising doesn't mean much. All it takes is a couple of billionaire donors to boost Trump's campaign finances right back up again.

[frae]

Susan Collins is getting crushed in fundraising, we will see what it transfers to in terms of votes but Gideon has a lot of cash in hand to spend.

[madducks]

Uh-oh...Trump really screwed up bad this time...now he's messing with college football.

University of Florida football coach Dan Mullen: “Absolutely want to see 90,000 in The Swamp. Hopefully that creates a home-field advantage for us next week because now we passed a law in our state that we can do that.”

[frae]

538's senate forecast moved to 52-48 yesterday for the first time in the cycle and is up to 74-26 for Democratic control of the Senate. The Presidential forecast also hit a new high today moving to 88-12 in favor of Biden. No new polls I want to specifically point to, but Biden just continues to get overall positive results but the 538 national polling average is at 10.5 for Biden. We are running out of time for anything to stick, they are going to keep hammering this BS Hunter Biden story, but Joe Biden isn't Hillary Clinton and his favorables are much stronger.

With 3 weeks left and millions of votes already cast no real news is good news for Biden. He just needs to hammer the old blue wall and the sunbelt states. My I can go to bed early dream is a Florida call for Biden, it is up to 72/100 on 538 so I am hoping that for once FL can come through.