Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

That CNN poll today at Biden +16 and the national poll before it at +13, those numbers are staggering. He's losing every demographic now except white uneducated men.

He's also blown his last chance at a comeback. His comments about being optimistic in facing the virus were his last shot at a comeback (great article on CBC about this, will link at bottom). He could have shown empathy for the 210K dead and their families grieving, and it would have been huge... but he decided to cut off his nose to spite his stupid face and went with the tough guy act. The joy ride with secret service would have been forgiven and forgotten, but his words downplaying the seriousness of Covid is something I consider a crime against humanity, punishable by death. Undecided voters have been disgusted by each successive stunt Trump pulls.

I've seen seniors favor Biden nationally by 30+ pts. I'm convinced it will be a blowout. The only question left will be how vigorously do Trump and the various Republicans attempt to disqualify different batches of votes, and how many of Trump's lunatic followers buy his garbage and kill in his name? Do Democrats cave to stopping recounts under such public pressure? I mean, it looks like a Biden blowout after the votes are counted, but it will still look like the opposite on election day, given the counting restrictions, so it seems like Trumpers will never accept his legitimate defeat. That's my biggest fear, an election system that's been used and abused like the town bicycle is supposed to stand up to legit authoritarian takeover? I don't see the voting system, and the shenanigans used to thwart the system, as satisfying voters. Each side will believe their choice won. The Republican media machine is better at messaging, thats how they won 2000 with the Brooks Bros riots.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-...ium%3Dsharebar

I think a big difference this time is it should be a total blow out, not a really tight race determined by won f-ed state. Another big difference is that there will NOT be a unified GOP block of support for Trump to contest an election. I think most see the writing on the wall, and are now in the mindset they rode him for what he is worth and it is time to move on. Even Fox News, if it is a blow out, I believe will push the narrative that he lost and needs to go. That will give him the fuel to attack them and try to start his own even more radical right news channel.

[Sour Masher]

The massive leads among older voters--I wonder how much of that is the fact that he keeps trying to kill them by minimizing the pandemic and undercutting measures that would make them safer?

I saw an old couple the other day wearing Trump/Pence masks. The irony of it left me dazed.

[Sour Masher]

The strategy is obvious with Trump walking away from stimulus talks. I mean, he spelled it out. He will pass it as soon as he is reelected. If you don't vote for him, you will have to wait another three months for the new guy. Some people are desperate for funds now. They are faced with the decision to vote for the guy who can get them the money faster or waiting, and for many of them that is a decision about their immediate futures vs long term futures. My hope is those folks see that anyone forcing that choice is a bad choice to make, but again, for some, it is a matter of paying rent on time, buying food for their kids.

[DMT]

The strategy is obvious with Trump walking away from stimulus talks. I mean, he spelled it out. He will pass it as soon as he is reelected. If you don't vote for him, you will have to wait another three months for the new guy. Some people are desperate for funds now. They are faced with the decision to vote for the guy who can get them the money faster or waiting, and for many of them that is a decision about their immediate futures vs long term futures. My hope is those folks see that anyone forcing that choice is a bad choice to make, but again, for some, it is a matter of paying rent on time, buying food for their kids.

It's desperation, and it's not going to work.

[Teenwolf]

I watched the Arizona Senate debate between Matha McSally and Mark Kelly last night. Aside from showing me I need to get a life, it showed me more proof Trump is going to lose big. McSally refused to be tied to Trump on anything. While praising his leadership, she would say "this administration" over and over, avoiding saying his name. Its like when the Democrats abandoned Obama in 2010. You could tell there would be a wave because supporters were running for cover. She also claimed Trump's words about John McCain "pisses me off", and other unexpectedly pointed critiques. McSally is such a nutcase, smearing Kelly as a foreign influenced operative with vague nonsense about a communist patch that Kelly took with him to space (dude's an astronaut).

In case anybody else was interested, here it is.

[Sour Masher]

It's desperation, and it's not going to work.

I guess he realized that. He is now pushing for a stand alone check to go out to voters ASAP and blaming Pelosi if it does not happen. The erratic pivots are signs of desperation. He is so far behind, I doubt anything he does matters at this point, but this was always the better move for him.

[Teenwolf]

I guess he realized that. He is now pushing for a stand alone check to go out to voters ASAP and blaming Pelosi if it does not happen. The erratic pivots are signs of desperation. He is so far behind, I doubt anything he does matters at this point, but this was always the better move for him.

The better move would have been to actually send out stimulus checks. He would have seen a bump from it for sure. I'm glad he didn't do it, strategically anyway.

[revo]

It's amusing that as he finds himself backed into a polling corner, the only arrow besides declaring the election to be void is trying to buy off voters (Medicare checks, Stimulus checks, the food for the hungry letters, etc.) Socialism is great!

Plus, regarding his most recent backtrack on the stimulus, he's such a dummy -- he continues to tout the stock market as his barometer of success, yet it plunges when he makes a dumb comment about the stimulus. The 'walking away from the table' is rule #1 in the Dumb Donald playbook. When will he realize this amateur shit doesn't work? And BTW, his stupid declaration came just hours after Chairman Powell said if there was no stimulus, the US economy is in grave danger. Hey, what's the US economy to this bozo? Just another tool to get him re-elected!

[frae]

And there it is Lindsey Graham's South Carolina seat has moved from Lean R to toss-up on Cook Political...

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-toss

"During the last full week of September, Harrison spent just over $6 million on TV. Last week, that amount rose to over $7.5 million. This week Harrison’s spending is at just over $8 million so far — only a fraction of what the incumbent is spending, even when aided by outside groups. "

So you can see why Lindsey keeps showing up on any TV show he can get begging for money. No one really likes him even the people who are voting for him. The only money he is getting is from outside groups. All I can say is thoughts and prayers Lindsey.

[revo]

I saw this chart on Real Clear Politics last week and it's stunning. We all thought Hillary had a huge lead in 2016, but Biden's is ginormous. It shows the difference between the average poll taken in 2016 vs 2020 in the battleground states:

Maine
Hillary 2016 poll average +4.5%
Biden 2020 poll average +15.3%
Diff: Biden +10.8%

Minnesota
Hillary +6.2%
Biden +9.4%
Diff: Biden +3.2%

New Hampshire
Hillary +0.6%
Biden +8.4%
Diff: Biden +7.8%

Pennsylvania
Hillary +1.9%
Biden +5.7%
Diff: Biden +3.8%

Wisconsin
Hillary +6.5%
Biden +5.5%
Diff: Biden -1.0%

Nevada
Trump +0.8%
Biden +5.3%
Diff: Biden +6.1%

Michigan
Hillary +3.4%
Biden +5.2%
Diff: Biden +1.8%

Ohio
Trump +3.5%
Biden +3.3%
Diff: Biden +6.8%

Arizona
Trump +4.0%
Biden + 3.3%
Diff: Biden +7.7%

Florida
Trump +0.2%
Biden +1.1%
Diff: Biden +1.3%

Iowa
Trump +3.0%
Biden +0.5%
Diff: Biden +3.5%

North Carolina
Trump +1.0%
Biden +0.5%
Diff: Biden +1.5%

Georgia
Trump +4.8%
Biden +0.3%
Diff: Biden +5.1%

Texas
Trump +12.0%
Trump +3.2%
Diff: Trump -8.8%

The numbers are staggering.

[Teenwolf]

Just to back up what revo showed with state polls, I heard today that if the polls are off from the final count by as much as they were off in 2016, Biden would still win with around 300 electoral college seats. So Trump needs a real miracle at this point.

[DMT]

The top link on Drudge right now is an interview on Salon with a psychiatrist arguing Trump should be locked up in a psych hospital. Landslide.

[Sour Masher]

The top link on Drudge right now is an interview on Salon with a psychiatrist arguing Trump should be locked up in a psych hospital. Landslide.

Yeah, even I am feeling pretty confident. But if I wanna go negative, I think about the fact that over 40% of voters are still going to vote for this unstable dummy. If we had any sense at all as a nation, the electoral map in 2020 would look like it did in 72 when Nixon almost completely swept McGovern or 84 when Reagan nearly swept Mondale. Any state that votes Trump in 2020 will go down in infamy. Not enough will for him to win, but one is too many.

[revo]

Just to pile on, here is Quinnipiac's latest polls:

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%

IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%

IOWA SENATE: Greenfield 50%, Ernst 45%

[Teenwolf]

More piling on... Carly Fiorina in an interview on Fox News discussing a Rasmussen poll with Biden +12, endorses Biden over Trump and explains his failures.

The Fox clip is at the front of this.