Election 2020

[DMT]

Every winning non-incumbent Democrat in political memory has been young. Obama, Clinton, Carter, Kennedy. When we've run old candidates (whether centrist or progressive), we've lost.

Good point but again extremely small sample.

[The Feral Slasher]

I agree on the POC thing. His heart is in the right place, but has been pretty clueless and out of touch with that demographic to date.

Also interesting that he is more popular with non-whites than whites. I think what you are posted is probably a narrative being pushed by people who don't like him.

[TS Garp]

The optics aren't going to be problematic once the nominee is chosen. I'm sure if either of them are chosen, they will choose a POC and/or woman as their running mate.

I'm sure that's true but I don't know that it completely solves the issue. There was a pretty compelling article about the point B-Fly is making regarding the age of democratic candidates.

[Sour Masher]

Also interesting that he is more popular with non-whites than whites. I think what you are posted is probably a narrative being pushed by people who don't like him.

It's more anecdotal, based on my wife's reaction to him.

[B-Fly]

Also interesting that he is more popular with non-whites than whites.

That's because some 60% of whites are Republicans/conservatives and some 80% of non-whites are Democrats/liberals (ballpark). Almost any Democrat today will broadly be more popular with non-whites than whites. (Maybe except Joe Manchin; maybe even Joe Manchin.)

What matters in the primaries is the extent to which non-whites would choose Sanders over other candidates who are either themselves non-white or who have established even stronger popularity with Democratic primary voters of color than he has (which was the case with Hillary Clinton and is arguably the case with Joe Biden).

[DMT]

Also interesting that he is more popular with non-whites than whites. I think what you are posted is probably a narrative being pushed by people who don't like him.

I was going to post something similar but couldn't find the right words.

[DMT]

That's because some 60% of whites are Republicans/conservatives and some 80% of non-whites are Democrats/liberals (ballpark). Almost any Democrat today will broadly be more popular with non-whites than whites. (Maybe except Joe Manchin; maybe even Joe Manchin.)

What matters in the primaries is the extent to which non-whites would choose Sanders over other candidates who are either themselves non-white or who have established even stronger popularity with Democratic primary voters of color than he has (which was the case with Hillary Clinton and is arguably the case with Joe Biden).

Exactly, which is why I think Biden is a favorite. But Sanders has much higher name recognition now so he won't be starting with as big of a disadvantage as 2016. And Biden is the only candidate with that established popularity so if he decides not to run...

[B-Fly]

Exactly, which is why I think Biden is a favorite. But Sanders has much higher name recognition now so he won't be starting with as big of a disadvantage as 2016. And Biden is the only candidate with that established popularity so if he decides not to run...

Maybe. But as we saw in 2008, being a Democratic Party insider with strong name recognition and strong support among African Americans is not necessarily enough if there is a compelling Black candidate in the race. Clinton easily won Black support over Sanders. She did not easily win Black support over Obama. While I think Biden would likely win Black voters strongly over Sanders, I think Sanders has to hope that Harris and/or Booker hang around at least long enough to keep him from racking up delegates with a coalition of centrists/party insiders/Black voters.

[DMT]

Maybe. But as we saw in 2008, being a Democratic Party insider with strong name recognition and strong support among African Americans is not necessarily enough if there is a compelling Black candidate in the race. Clinton easily won Black support over Sanders. She did not easily win Black support over Obama. While I think Biden would likely win Black voters strongly over Sanders, I think Sanders has to hope that Harris and/or Booker hang around at least long enough to keep him from racking up delegates with a coalition of centrists/party insiders/Black voters.

Yeah that makes sense.

[The Feral Slasher]

That's because some 60% of whites are Republicans/conservatives and some 80% of non-whites are Democrats/liberals (ballpark). Almost any Democrat today will broadly be more popular with non-whites than whites. (Maybe except Joe Manchin; maybe even Joe Manchin.)

What matters in the primaries is the extent to which non-whites would choose Sanders over other candidates who are either themselves non-white or who have established even stronger popularity with Democratic primary voters of color than he has (which was the case with Hillary Clinton and is arguably the case with Joe Biden).

I was just responding to the post saying he was out of touch and clueless relative to people of color. It may or may not be true, I feel it was maybe a bit strongly stated, and I think poll data suggest that as well. Also I think that is clearly a narrative being pushed by certain groups.

Edit - I mean we have all heard that Bernie Bros are misogynists and many of his supporters don't like POC, right ?

[Sour Masher]

I was just responding to the post saying he was out of touch and clueless relative to people of color. It may or may not be true, I feel it was maybe a bit strongly stated, and I think poll data suggest that as well. Also I think that is clearly a narrative being pushed by certain groups.

It may be a narrative pushed by opponents with a nefarious agenda, but that is not why I said it. I said it, because DMT suggested he needed to do better with POC to win in 2020, and I completely agree with that, and my wife, a black woman, has said as much many times. His campaign will need to do a much better job of connecting with POC to be successful in 2020 than they did in 2016. I see it as a pretty uncontroversial claim to suggest they did not do that well enough in 2016. I mean, he lost "bigly" both the black and Latinx votes in 2016.

Things may be better in 2020 for him simply because time may dull the sense for some that he was too harsh on Obama. To be clear, I'm not saying at all he was harsh on Obama for racial reasons or that it is even fair that he is being judged for having a poor political opinion of someone he believed was a neoliberal stooge to corporate interests. But I do think there was a sense by some that the level of criticism Obama faced and the type of criticism he faced by Sanders and others on the far left had tings of unfairness in them. Especially in light of the other grossly unfair and racially motivated criticisms Obama faced on the right. He was getting abused pretty hard on all sides, and I think some folks got defensive about that.

There is also the issue that Sanders has always addressed larger economic issues for all poor Americans and has not specifically catered to crafting his message to POC. Many would see his unwillingness to play identify politics as a strength and mark of integrity. I can see that. But I also think many folks want an acknowledgment and recognition of what makes their plight in America unique in some ways, and Sanders has shown himself unwilling or incapable of doing that. Finally, just as HRC rightly gets criticized for not campaigning hard enough in key states in the general election, Sanders should take some heat for giving up on the South in the primaries.

ETA: In response to FS's edit, again, maybe that is a gross overstatement by folks with an agenda, and it isn't something I've brought up before, but I will say I have seen some of that on my college campus. I have never used the term "Bernie Bro", but I did see many young white male Bernie supporters on campus who also could care less about issues specifically related to POC and women. Sanders was tapping into a lot of things that directly affected them, so they loved him. Nothing wrong with that. But I've had pro-Sanders students write about free education for all and universal health care and also about the neutering of the American male and how unfair and destructive affirmative action is. I hate to get sucked a thing on this, because I like Bernie, and don't see any of this as a conscious courting of a type by him. But he did draw some folks who, ironically, probably ended up voting for Trump, and who now idolize folks like Jordan Peterson.

[B-Fly]

I also think that once the 2016 race narrowed to Clinton and Sanders, it is fair to assume that "not her" was the ultimate driving factor for some primary voters (much as it was for many general election voters). That's not necessarily there for Sanders in a crowded field or even one-on-one against a different candidate.

Nate Sanders built on this in a piece published today:

So as Sanders launches his 2020 campaign as a candidate with both formidable strengths and serious challenges, his biggest problem might seem to be that there’s more competition for his base this time around, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and others also competing for the leftmost part of the Democratic electorate. An equally big problem for Sanders, however, is that voters this time around have more alternatives to Hillary Clinton — left, right and center — to choose from.

Roughly one-quarter of Sanders’s support in Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2016 came from #NeverHillary voters: people who didn’t vote for Clinton in the 2016 general election and who had no intention of doing so. (The #NeverHillary label is a little snarky, but it’s also quite literal: These are people who never voted for Clinton despite being given two opportunities to do so, in the primary and the general election.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-was-helped-by-the-neverhillary-vote-what-does-that-mean-for-his-chances-now/

[The Feral Slasher]

It may be a narrative pushed by opponents with a nefarious agenda, but that is not why I said it. I said it, because DMT suggested he needed to do better with POC to win in 2020, and I completely agree with that, and my wife, a black woman, has said as much many times. His campaign will need to do a much better job of connecting with POC to be successful in 2020 than they did in 2016. I see it as a pretty uncontroversial claim to suggest they did not do that well enough in 2016. I mean, he lost "bigly" both the black and Latinx votes in 2016.

Things may be better in 2020 for him simply because time may dull the sense for some that he was too harsh on Obama. To be clear, I'm not saying at all he was harsh on Obama for racial reasons or that it is even fair that he is being judged for having a poor political opinion of someone he believed was a neoliberal stooge to corporate interests. But I do think there was a sense by some that the level of criticism Obama faced and the type of criticism he faced by Sanders and others on the far left had tings of unfairness in them. Especially in light of the other grossly unfair and racially motivated criticisms Obama faced on the right. He was getting abused pretty hard on all sides, and I think some folks got defensive about that.

There is also the issue that Sanders has always addressed larger economic issues for all poor Americans and has not specifically catered to crafting his message to POC. Many would see his unwillingness to play identify politics as a strength and mark of integrity. I can see that. But I also think many folks want an acknowledgment and recognition of what makes their plight in America unique in some ways, and Sanders has shown himself unwilling or incapable of doing that. Finally, just as HRC rightly gets criticized for not campaigning hard enough in key states in the general election, Sanders should take some heat for giving up on the South in the primaries.

I think I agree with just about everything you said, I just think all that is very much different than saying he is clueless and out of touch.

[Sour Masher]

I think I agree with just about everything you said, I just think all that is very much different than saying he is clueless and out of touch.

Well, you are taking issue with my wife's wording there. It is her phrasing of it. But I'll also say you may be right that underlying political beliefs inform that opinion. My wife is a dyed in the wool Democrat, but not as progressive as Bernie on many issues. She is very protective of her paycheck and wary of increased taxes.

[The Feral Slasher]

Well, you are taking issue with my wife's wording there. It is her phrasing of it. But I'll also say you may be right that underlying political beliefs inform that opinion. My wife is a dyed in the wool Democrat, but not as progressive as Bernie on many issues. She is very protective of her paycheck and wary of increased taxes.

I took issue with your wording My wife is also a POC and loves Bernie - so I thought it was a tad overreach on your part to say he is out of touch and clueless with POC.