Election 2020

[revo]

538.com now moves Ohio towards Biden, giving him a 56% chance of winning the state. I'll just come out and say it now: it will be a polling debacle on scale with 2016 if Dopey wins re-election. He literally is not leading in ANY battleground state at the moment with just about a month to go. He's behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and now Ohio. He's virtually tied in South Carolina, Georgia and Iowa. And Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine 2 and Minnesota already seem out of reach.

Honestly, his only shot is 1) continuing to promote this rigged voting nonsense, which just delays the inevitable because no court, not even one packed with conservatives, would rule against it; and 2) having his white supremacist enforcers try to suppress the vote.

Only his base which has drank the Kool-Aid and is following him to their doom just like the Jim Jones cultists are still in on him.

[heyelander]

I'm am still 90% sure trump wins.

[Sour Masher]

Here's a breakdown of the insidiousness of the Lincoln Project. Its not for wooing Republicans, its about usurping power from the left.

I watched the first 5 minutes or so...I disagree with his premises. First, he assumes people watching these ads do not understand that the LP has an agenda beyond beating Trump. Maybe he is right that some have not thought about it, but I think most people understand this. And I think most people understand that the LP, in trying to break from Trump, are trying to disassociate themselves with all the negative that rightly is associated with Trump and the GOP. They are trying to find a lane for the GOP long term that does not lead to a dead end, which is the path Trump has most Republicans on right now (or at least that is the hope, but Trump proved it was not in 2016). And the final point of them aiming their message at those on the left, not on the right, well, yeah, again, I don't see that as a big shocker.

They are not just trying to peel off Republicans to vote for Biden, they are trying to let people on the left know that there are Republicans that are not like Trump, and of course they hope that messaging, once Trump is gone, will lead to some on the left coming into their vision of the Republican tent--one that is not so radically right and so overtly racist. Is that really some insidious thing to deride right now when their Anti-Trump messaging is really effective? I don't see it. What I see is a manifestation of my ideal political landscape with the LP. What I very much want in this country is for the GOP party to move toward the center and for the choices voters will be making going forward to be between moderate, compassionate conservatives who are cautious about change on the right and idealistic progressives pushing the country forward on the left, and maybe the dialogue between those two sides leads to the best, most peaceful path toward real and lasting change for the better. I don't want my country to ever have someone like Trump in power again. Yes, a move to the center for the GOP may be a path toward continued relevance and it may lead to more Democrats losing elections. But look at the alternative. Those on the left that were gleeful for the extreme shift to the right by the GOP, because they thought it would mean their downfall were wrong. Trump ran and won on a far right platform that included hate and extreme nationalism. It could happen again, if the party is not shifted toward sanity. I don't want to have to worry about a president trying to turn our democracy into a dictatorship ever again, so, yeah, I am not gonna get mad at the LP for being duplicitous in their motivations for taking down Trump.

[revo]

In the first published poll post ShitShow '20, Biden has opened up a 13 pt lead on the White Supremacist.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519160-biden-opens-up-13-point-lead-over-trump-in-new-national-poll

[heyelander]

In the first published poll post ShitShow

man, say that 5 times fast...

[frae]

A rated poll by Suffolk in Arizona puts Biden up 4 at 50-46. Another poll that shows Biden at 50% or better which is different than 2016 Clinton. For example the last 3 A rated or better polls in Wi in 2016 she had 47 or 46. PA 48, 46 44, and 48. MI 41 46 46.

Take it to PA this year 51, 49, 50, 54. WI 54, 52, 48. MI 52 (for some reason not a lot of A rated polls here in the last month). Let's take that out to AZ

AZ 50, 48, 49

So these are all A- or better polls only showing Biden at or much closer to that 50% number. The undecided just are not there like in 2016, now there is still a margin of error in polling, but I feel much better overall looking at this. 538 now has Biden at 80/100 and the Senate at 64/100 which is up from about 3 weeks ago when it was 57/100.

Forgot to mention same Suffolk poll shows Kelly up 9 points on McSally at 49-40. Really going to enjoy seeing her lose twice.

[revo]

Senator Mike Lee of Utah also tests positive.

How many more GOPers who came into contact with Dumpy will fall victim to his science-denying?

[DMT]

Senator Mike Lee of Utah also tests positive.

How many more GOPers who came into contact with Dumpy will fall victim to his science-denying?

Considering their culpability in causing mass death, not nearly enough.

[DMT]

Biden tests negative

[Sour Masher]

Biden tests negative

Hoping it stays that way. Chances are, Trump had it at that debate and he was talking at Biden for about two straight hours. But I assume his viral load was not really high at the time, given he tested negative at that point. Having a debate audience was perplexing given they did not want them making noise or reacting, and I'm hoping that odd decision doesn't end in more cases.

[madducks]

I'm am still 90% sure trump wins.

[madducks]

[frae]

NYT Siena polls out today. A+ rated poll.

National Biden 49 - Trump 42 - Love seeing Biden pushing 50 nationally.

FL Bidn 47 - Trump 42 - Not as close to 50 as I would like but a 5 point lead which is outside the MOE of 4%

No way to know what the President having COVID will do but I am having a hard time seeing it as good, this is another good post debate set of polls for Biden.

[DMT]

NYT Siena polls out today. A+ rated poll.

National Biden 49 - Trump 42 - Love seeing Biden pushing 50 nationally.

FL Bidn 47 - Trump 42 - Not as close to 50 as I would like but a 5 point lead which is outside the MOE of 4%

No way to know what the President having COVID will do but I am having a hard time seeing it as good, this is another good post debate set of polls for Biden.

I'm waiting for 1J to tell us how this seals it for Trump.

[chancellor]

I’d say the chances of the Dems taking Thom Tillis’ seat dropped considerably.