Election 2020

[heyelander]

What do you think they are using for kindling?

copies of the bill of rights.

[frae]

Big polling day, Fox an A- rated pollster put a batch of results out this evening...

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-tight-race-in-ohio-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania

NV LV - Biden 52 - Trum 41

OH LV - Biden 50 - Trum 45

PA LV - Biden 51 - Trump 44

Big keys here for me is Biden being over 50% in each poll and outside the margin of error all nice to see. Again not counting on OH it won't matter because no way Biden wins OH and loses MI or WI. Good poll from PA and good to see a highly rated poll showing NV not close

[revo]

Hard to believe that the Senate had to pass a resolution saying there will be a peaceful transfer of power in the event the whining child loses:

"The Senate passed a resolution on Thursday reaffirming its support for a peaceful transition of power, one day after President Trump refused to commit to such a transition next year if he loses in the November election.

The resolution, offered by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), passed by unanimous consent, meaning no senator objected to it.

"We're in the most difficult times right now, and for the president to even address — to even address the subject of maybe not knowing if he would accept or not is beyond all our checks that that would ever happen in America," Manchin said.

"I believe to have the leader of the free world talk as if we are an autocracy, authoritarian versus a democracy, is something that alarmed me and alarmed a lot of my colleagues on both sides of the aisle, even those quiet as some may be, I know they're alarmed," he added.

In the non-binding resolution, the Senate reaffirms "its commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitution of the United States." "

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/518061-senate-passes-resolution-reaffirming-commitment-to-peaceful-transition-of

[Sour Masher]

Biden has just won over one very prominent self-proclaimed independent centrist. Dwayne Johnson smells what Biden is cooking, and digs it. He made his endorsement official. It is the first time ever the business minded superstar has ever risked his paycheck or popularity by making an endorsement for president.

I am gonna call this as the day Biden officially clinched the election, jabronies. I also am calling the 2028 run for candidate Johnson, probably for the Dems, but he could go Arnold and run as a moderate Republican.

[Mithrandir]

c62f2abb4b1b3897f24e5053e9b66a47.jpg

What he said!

[Sour Masher]

The contrast between campaign strategies is stark. Trump's team is following the Obama ground game playbook, knocking on millions of doors. It has proven a very effective strategy in the past. Time will tell if Biden's strategy of no door knocking in the time of the pandemic will be appreciated by voters. Studies have shown that in-your-face appeals from neighbors is really persuasive, although personally, I'd be annoyed if Biden reps were coming to my home right now.

[frae]

Good polling from NE-2 and a few of the pollsters I follow on Twitter feel very comfortable that the data they have seen from there makes NE-02 a lean D. If that is the case the 269-269 ties are most likely off the table. You have to work a lot harder to get to 269 all if NE2 goes to Biden.

[DMT]

Good polling from NE-2 and a few of the pollsters I follow on Twitter feel very comfortable that the data they have seen from there makes NE-02 a lean D. If that is the case the 269-269 ties are most likely off the table. You have to work a lot harder to get to 269 all if NE2 goes to Biden.

Glad to see my Omaha peeps representing.

[onejayhawk]

Good polling from NE-2 and a few of the pollsters I follow on Twitter feel very comfortable that the data they have seen from there makes NE-02 a lean D. If that is the case the 269-269 ties are most likely off the table. You have to work a lot harder to get to 269 all if NE2 goes to Biden.

To get a 269-269 all you to do is take the 2016 final EC results and flip PA, AZ and IA. The interesting one is flip PA and MI which leaves Trump 270. Maine #2 puts it at even.

J

[frae]

To get a 269-269 all you to do is take the 2016 final EC results and flip PA, AZ and IA. The interesting one is flip PA and MI which leaves Trump 270. Maine #2 puts it at even.

J

If you do what you said and move NE-2 to Biden also as it would flip it is 270 unless the map I am shading in is wrong. PA, AZ, IA and NE-2 give Biden 270. My point was if Trump loses NE-2 a lot of the things people have shown as paths to 269 all get much harder. So assuming NE-2 is for Biden, not a sure thing but trending you need another way to do it.

I think I found a way...

2016 map plus these changes...

PA Biden
IA Biden
WI Biden

NE 2 Biden

ME 2 Trump (this is the same as 16, but just making it clear where we get to 269)

That gets you to 269 all, but the problem is the demos of PA MI and IA really cross over too much to make it likely. To see Biden win WI PA, and IA while losing MI seems like a big time reach.

ok I am a nerd and now you have me searching for realistic ways with the demos. I don't love this idea because AZ and FL aren't really the same demos but for the sake of argument...

2016 map

FL - Biden
AZ - Biden

NH - Trump

NE 2 Biden

Seems unlikely for a lot of reasons, but it is more realistic than other ways I can make it work.

Found one more that again to me doesn't seem likely to work because of demos but hey this is fun..

2016 map

Biden NC
Biden AZ
Biden - WI
Biden NE2

My biggest problem with a lof these is MI I just don't see it being red again if we are saying WI or even PA go blue and those have to happen in almost each scenario, but regardless I found a few that I wouldn't say are 100% impossible just much less likely to find a realistic one if NE2 goes to Biden.

[frae]

Good polls today and yesterday for Biden in PA...

ABC/WA PO A+ rated Biden 54 - Trump 45 PA

NYT/Sienna College A+ Biden 49 - Trump 40

Those are some pretty strong polls and the fact that Biden's top number is over 50 or right up against it in both polls makes them a lot stronger. We will see, but I am glad to see some strong polls coming out of PA.

[Sour Masher]

The Lincoln Project has the best ads, and its not even close. I don't know where all Biden's campaign money is going, but nearly everything I am seeing that sticks with me is from TLP. Here is Captain Sully standing tall against Trump. But I'm sure Trump's rabid fans will dismiss another previously non-partisan, well-respected person (can you get more well-respected than a hero like Captain Sully?) as being a traitor to fellow Republicans and a shill or a liar. Where is the line for the hardliners? At what point, with all of the voices speaking out for the first time on politics about just how dangerous he is, and how much we need him gone, will it hit home? I really feel like if Jesus himself came down to denounce Trump, some of his Evangelical supporters would call him a libtard and continue to cheer their fearless leader. I just don't get it. I feel supremely confident I could never support a candidate on "my side" no matter how many judges he or she appointed, that was everything Donald Trump is. I just cannot understand, when you look at who stands against Trump and those who stand for him, how reasonable people cannot see which is the side of the righteous. The part is splitting and you are either on the side of Trump or the side of those like Sully. It is so obvious which choice is better, it pains me how blind millions are to it.

[umjewman]

The Lincoln Project has the best ads, and its not even close. I don't know where all Biden's campaign money is going, but nearly everything I am seeing that sticks with me is from TLP. Here is Captain Sully standing tall against Trump. But I'm sure Trump's rabid fans will dismiss another previously non-partisan, well-respected person (can you get more well-respected than a hero like Captain Sully?) as being a traitor to fellow Republicans and a shill or a liar. Where is the line for the hardliners? At what point, with all of the voices speaking out for the first time on politics about just how dangerous he is, and how much we need him gone, will it hit home? I really feel like if Jesus himself came down to denounce Trump, some of his Evangelical supporters would call him a libtard and continue to cheer their fearless leader. I just don't get it. I feel supremely confident I could never support a candidate on "my side" no matter how many judges he or she appointed, that was everything Donald Trump is. I just cannot understand, when you look at who stands against Trump and those who stand for him, how reasonable people cannot see which is the side of the righteous. The part is splitting and you are either on the side of Trump or the side of those like Sully. It is so obvious which choice is better, it pains me how blind millions are to it.

"I like pilots who don't need to make emergency landings. What a third-rate pilot. A real pilot would have been able to avoid the birds in the first place!"

-Donald Trump, presumably-

[Sour Masher]

"I like pilots who don't need to make emergency landings. What a third-rate pilot. A real pilot would have been able to avoid the birds in the first place!"

-Donald Trump, presumably-

I can always count on you to make me laugh .

But you totally know he wants to say this. 100%. But he has to pick his battles and attacking Sully would be a losing battle. With someone whose entire debate strategy is ad hominin attacks and FUD, I would love to see what he would try to come up with against someone like Sully.

[revo]

Two interesting Senate polls in Georgia today:
Quinnipiac has Warnock up by 8% in the Runoff involving Loeffler (presumably Loeffler will still win the actual election, as the GOP is splitting votes here) and has Ossoff up 1 on Perdue.