Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

Getting serious here--are you all not getting more and more freaked out by Trump's ever more aggressive push to get as many Biden votes disqualified as possible? He is being explicit and brazen with his attempts to challenge mail-in voting in key areas that are unfavorable to him. This despite the fact that he has used mail-on votes and his party is now pushing hard on voters to do the same in places that it is advantageous to the GOP for them to do so. He is flat out calling his shot that he wants to court stacked to ensure they will rule in his favor on this, because he is also calling his shot that he will force the outcome to go to the SC. He is basically laying out his game plan to steal this election.

We know that no matter how poorly Trump has done and how much we on the left think he is a disaster on all levels, he still has lots of support. If he is successful in getting enough votes tossed in key states, he can steal this election. I didn't think it was really possible until recently, but the doomsday scenario Brian suggested might actually come to pass. Most of you seem pretty chill about this and are still focused on the polls. But what good are the polls if whatever edge Biden might have in key states gets overcome by what Trump hopes is a partisan SC that will rule in his favor out of loyalty? Are you all just assuming the SC won't do that? Because I don't feel confident in that at this point.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I'm very discouraged about the future of our country. I used to wonder what I would have done if I lived in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s. I now believe I'm going to get to find out. I also understand how helpless good people must have felt, and how so many of them ended up exiled, executed, or in the camps.

I also understand now how the church aided the Nazis, because I see it happening here. That used to befuddle me, but now I know. They love power and approval more than they love Jesus.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Getting serious here--are you all not getting more and more freaked out by Trump's ever more aggressive push to get as many Biden votes disqualified as possible? He is being explicit and brazen with his attempts to challenge mail-in voting in key areas that are unfavorable to him. This despite the fact that he has used mail-on votes and his party is now pushing hard on voters to do the same in places that it is advantageous to the GOP for them to do so. He is flat out calling his shot that he wants to court stacked to ensure they will rule in his favor on this, because he is also calling his shot that he will force the outcome to go to the SC. He is basically laying out his game plan to steal this election.

We know that no matter how poorly Trump has done and how much we on the left think he is a disaster on all levels, he still has lots of support. If he is successful in getting enough votes tossed in key states, he can steal this election. I didn't think it was really possible until recently, but the doomsday scenario Brian suggested might actually come to pass. Most of you seem pretty chill about this and are still focused on the polls. But what good are the polls if whatever edge Biden might have in key states gets overcome by what Trump hopes is a partisan SC that will rule in his favor out of loyalty? Are you all just assuming the SC won't do that? Because I don't feel confident in that at this point.

I don't think anyone is being overly "chill" I think we've all come to expect as much criminality from Trump as he can possibly get away with. He has his cronies in place and now sits poised to add another to the ONE position that might help him steal this election. This SCOTUS Nominee, might be the deciding vote in any contested election results.

However, if you think the Protesting, rioting and civil unrest regarding Police Brutality, BLM and other such issues we've been experiencing these past couple if years was bad--You ain't seen nothing yet.

What we {and I speak as someone who will indeed take to the streets should Trump actually lose the election, but find a way to stay in office either with a compromised system or simply refusing to leave} are waiting for is--to see how this plays out and which side the US Military will come down in favor of. There are still great men in positions of authority at the Pentagon and within the ranks who don't ascribe to Trump's BS Nor do I believe they will stand by while he tramples the constitution they've spent lifetimes and Given lives to protect. If they indeed side with the American People, all his bluster and bullshit will be for naught as he'll be removed like Saddam was, dragged out of his bunker along with everyone who's helped his as they will ALL be guilty of sedition at that point.

If they fall in behind Trump, expect conflict--Lots of it. Good people who are quietly sitting here waiting for the clock to run out, will get off their asses and mobilize. These people exist in every walk of life, in the military, Law Enforcement, Public and Private sectors. They'll try the thoughtful, peaceful route at first, but if they're met with the shit we've seen out of federal officers to date--well let's just say it'll get pretty ugly as it will be open armed conflict and thousands could die.

I hope it doesn't come to pass, but I am definitely preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'm very discouraged about the future of our country. I used to wonder what I would have done if I lived in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s. I now believe I'm going to get to find out. I also understand how helpless good people must have felt, and how so many of them ended up exiled, executed, or in the camps.

I also understand now how the church aided the Nazis, because I see it happening here. That used to befuddle me, but now I know. They love power and approval more than they love Jesus.

Sadly I can only nod my head in agreement.

[onejayhawk]

You are moving the goal posts here. You initially said Biden wouldn't even get close to 65.8 million votes.

You're quibbling. If Biden does less than Hillary's 2016, he's actually more than 2% worse. Think of it as an inflation adjustment.

I wouldn't bet the farm on him getting over 67 million either, fwiw, especially if we end up with a SC that throws out millions of votes for him.

I had not even considered the likely mail in fiasco. What a boondoggle.

We already have 100s of thousands of mail-in votes potentially in peril, because the return envelopes had the wrong addresses on them. Who know how many mail-in votes end up being counted and which get thrown out for hanging chad reasons? And that is going to affect Biden more than Trump.

I know a couple of hard core Democrats who are telling everyone to vote in person for exactly these reasons.

I feel more confident, for this reason, in claiming that Trump will not exceed the 63 million votes he got in 2016.

It has been dismissed, but I think Trump does reclaim most or all of the 4 million votes who went to McMullin and increased for Johnson. Aside from that, I expect much better Republican turn out.

I believe you suggested he would get 70+ million votes. I'll make an avatar bet on a line in between the two. If you want to take the over at 66.5 million, I will take the under.

75% of the 43% who support Trump in polls is 71 million votes. That is simple math and Democrats may have managed 80% in 2018.

In practical terms, partly because of the 4 million protest votes returning to the R column, 70 million is doable. If the economy takes off or Biden has a meltdown, 75 million is not out of question.

[Teenwolf]

I don't think anyone is being overly "chill" I think we've all come to expect as much criminality from Trump as he can possibly get away with. He has his cronies in place and now sits poised to add another to the ONE position that might help him steal this election. This SCOTUS Nominee, might be the deciding vote in any contested election results.

However, if you think the Protesting, rioting and civil unrest regarding Police Brutality, BLM and other such issues we've been experiencing these past couple if years was bad--You ain't seen nothing yet.

What we {and I speak as someone who will indeed take to the streets should Trump actually lose the election, but find a way to stay in office either with a compromised system or simply refusing to leave} are waiting for is--to see how this plays out and which side the US Military will come down in favor of. There are still great men in positions of authority at the Pentagon and within the ranks who don't ascribe to Trump's BS Nor do I believe they will stand by while he tramples the constitution they've spent lifetimes and Given lives to protect. If they indeed side with the American People, all his bluster and bullshit will be for naught as he'll be removed like Saddam was, dragged out of his bunker along with everyone who's helped his as they will ALL be guilty of sedition at that point.

If they fall in behind Trump, expect conflict--Lots of it. Good people who are quietly sitting here waiting for the clock to run out, will get off their asses and mobilize. These people exist in every walk of life, in the military, Law Enforcement, Public and Private sectors. They'll try the thoughtful, peaceful route at first, but if they're met with the shit we've seen out of federal officers to date--well let's just say it'll get pretty ugly as it will be open armed conflict and thousands could die.

I hope it doesn't come to pass, but I am definitely preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

I agree with some of this, but I disagree that the people involved in stealing the election for Trump would see any consequences. This is setting up to be the Brooks Brothers Riots 2.0. Roger Stone ran the first one, but more interesting is the participants. John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh both participated in the 2000 Brooks Brothers Riots, so the reward incentive is obvious... now the motherfuckers who stole the 2000 election are on the Supreme Court, ready to pay back those who rewarded them before by stealing another election.

They're already fucking with the vote tally. I saw reports that vote by mail was being thrown out (I forget where) if it wasn't sent in with the envelope it came with, despite the fact that it wasn't required in the primary. Republicans are such power-hungry anti-Democratic shitbags at this point, and when you call it out they just laugh. It's all just "winning", destroying Democracy. Sickening. They cheer when a 17 year old terrorist kills protestors... they cheer on right wing lunatics with assault weapons storming court houses to intimidate lawmakers... they are being prodded to commit violence to ensure Trump remains President, and they will do so. Trump will praise them, highlight any Democrat violence and downplay any Republican violence as "patriots"... it won't matter. Republicans hold too much power in key places, and are too willing to weaponize their power to de-legitimize the vote, and with it move one step further away from democracy into outright fascism.

Put that into the context of the police... if the election is up in the air, too much dis-information flowing all over for anybody to know with 100% certainty who won, but each side is claiming victory and there's rioting in the streets... you think police support the Biden folks over the right wing terrorists? Fuck no. We've seen over and over, police support the fascists, police crush the lefty protesters for funsies and with impunity. They will provoke rioting to ensure their bloated budgets stay that way. They're incentivized to provoke chaos. So the police state will very much support Trump until it becomes clear he lost... but when does that become clear? Ever? I think they can play enough games to run out the clock, just like in 2000, and it could only become clear after years of studies that Trump had lost, but by then Republicans would claim "fake news"... so it just doesn't matter. Reality doesn't hold currency like power does.

[frae]

3 A+ NYT polls out today in states.

GA - tied
IA - Biden +3
TX - Trump +3

4 senate races in those states also

TX - Cornyn +6
GA - Perdue +3
GA Jungle - all bunched up because there are 4 of them, I know Lieberman won't drop out because Lieberman, but hopefully GA D's can all get behind Warnock to make sure we have a candidate in the run off.
IA - Greenfield +2

These are 3 states Biden would not have expected to be playing in 2 years ago and today you would have to say from polling data GA and IA are tossups. TX will keep moving toward that, but I don't see it yet though like GA and Abrams, O'rourke has done a good job of registering new voters. Some other decent polls for Biden in the rustbelt from Yougov that is rated a B but I am going to try to stick to the A- or better polls for now.

I really think Ernst is in trouble, the gender gap in these Iowa polls has been stark, we will see how it plays out, but 2 years ago you would not have been thinking the Iowa senate race would be a tossup and now that is how it is rated just about everywhere. I don't think TX is flipping this time. GA is going to be close, but not sure we get over the top there yet.

[fuhrdog]

I will be shocked if Ernst loses unfortunately. This is a pretty rural and racist state. Guns are as important as many peoples kids. Put up a Biden sign and good chance you have property damage in the morning.

[frae]

I will be shocked if Ernst loses unfortunately. This is a pretty rural and racist state. Guns are as important as many peoples kids. Put up a Biden sign and good chance you have property damage in the morning.

Ernst's favorable/unfavorables have not been good and while Iowa is more conservative it did vote for Obama once and the polls have been pretty good. 538 still gives Ernst the edge 55/45 in probability, but of the polls we can see Greenfield is in it for sure we now have 2 A+ rated Sept polls with Greenfield holding a slim lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/

[heyelander]

I will be shocked if Ernst loses unfortunately. This is a pretty rural and racist state. Guns are as important as many peoples kids. Put up a Biden sign and good chance you have property damage in the morning.

Huh? You think Antifa would come down and vandalize houses with Biden signs? That seems odd. But I mean, it couldn't be Trump supporters, they hold property rights more sacrosanct than even life or liberty.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Huh? You think Antifa would come down and vandalize houses with Biden signs? That seems odd. But I mean, it couldn't be Trump supporters, they hold property rights more sacrosanct than even life or liberty.

Can't be Antifa, everyone knows they sleep in till noon at the Home.

[The Feral Slasher]

Huh? You think Antifa would come down and vandalize houses with Biden signs? That seems odd. But I mean, it couldn't be Trump supporters, they hold property rights more sacrosanct than even life or liberty.

Antifa is too busy starting forest fires to waste time on signs

[frae]

Monmouth put out an A+ poll in Iowa after my previous post, Trump +3 with Likely voters and +6 with registered voters.

The poll also shows Ernst and Greenfield tied with registered voters and Greenfield up 3 with LV high turnout and up 1 with LV low turnout.

[umjewman]

Can't be Antifa, everyone knows they sleep in till noon at the Home.

I don't know if it's that they are sleeping in as much as waiting for the wire transfer from George Soros before they get out there. Antifa don't work for free, ya know?

[Gregg]

Antifa is too busy starting forest fires to waste time on signs

What do you think they are using for kindling?