Election 2020

[DMT]

Trump solidified his base in four years. Doubters no longer doubt and he will not lose many votes to the Libertarians.

Regardless, Biden will not perform as well as Hillary did. Not close.

J

I'll bet you a year-long hiatus from RJ that he will.

[heyelander]

I'll bet you a year-long hiatus from RJ that he will.

we have like 5 contributing members... why do we do this shit?

besides, you know J will disappear if he's wrong anyway.

[onejayhawk]

I'll bet you a year-long hiatus from RJ that he will.

I do icon Bets. Bob Kohm had to wear a Boston Red Sox logo in 2004. For you, a MAGA hat from Nov 4 to inauguration.

Set out exactly what parameters you want.

J

[Sour Masher]

Let me jump in and maybe save DMT here--as heylander says, the downside is all with you as an active poster. Also, as you craft the parameters, I'd consider how exactly you think Biiden will beat Trump. I think it likely there will be more voter melt from Trump than there will be new voters for Biden (though I hope for both). HRC got basically the same number of votes in 2016 as Obama did in 2012m and got 3 million more votes than Trump did. She lost because of where she got the votes, not how many she got.

A better/safer bat that I think 1jay will take based on his previous claims is will Trump get more votes in 2020 than he got in 2016? 1jay claims both that Trump will get more votes than he did, because he has expanded his base and Biden will get less than HRC.

[DMT]

I'm not going to put forth energy to figure out the parameters, just simply noting that this statement is ridiculous.

"Biden will not perform as well as Hillary did. Not close."

[Ken]

1jay claims both that Trump will get more votes than he did, because he has expanded his base and Biden will get less than HRC.

I know purely anecdotal, but does anyone know of an individual who did not vote for Trump in 2016 who is planning to vote for him in 2020? I know a lot the other direction, heck there's an entire movement in the Lincoln Project, however I'm not familiar with new Trump voters - who are they?

[GwynnInTheHall]

I know purely anecdotal, but does anyone know of an individual who did not vote for Trump in 2016 who is planning to vote for him in 2020? I know a lot the other direction, heck there's an entire movement in the Lincoln Project, however I'm not familiar with new Trump voters - who are they?

All the double voters Trump is encouraging.......

[Sour Masher]

I know purely anecdotal, but does anyone know of an individual who did not vote for Trump in 2016 who is planning to vote for him in 2020? I know a lot the other direction, heck there's an entire movement in the Lincoln Project, however I'm not familiar with new Trump voters - who are they?

IDK, all those MAGA hat wearing teens that were not 18 years old in 2016? I'm sure Kyle Rittenhouse would, if he were eligible. Anyone like that "little boy trying to protect his community," as Pam Bondi calls him, willing to travel many miles to kill two people he doesn't know to defend property he doesn't own surely will take the effort to go vote.

[Ken]

IDK, all those MAGA hat wearing teens that were not 18 years old in 2016? I'm sure Kyle Rittenhouse would, if he were eligible. Anyone like that "little boy trying to protect his community," as Pam Bondi calls him, willing to travel many miles to kill two people he doesn't know to defend property he doesn't own surely will take the effort to go vote.

I think we can offset teens on both sides of the aisle by those that have died since 2016 (sorry for morbid).

And the youth vote goes to Biden doesn't it?

I was really referring to someone who voted against Trump in 2016 who is now been convinced to switch to voting for him. I've never heard of that person or group, but I'm sure it exists (even if in small numbers).

[onejayhawk]

I'm not going to put forth energy to figure out the parameters, just simply noting that this statement is ridiculous.

"Biden will not perform as well as Hillary did. Not close."

Fine. I will. Hillary received 65.8 million votes. with population growth, that would be 67.2 million. Biden won't get even the 65.8.

It would not shock me to see an increase in the 1.1 million write votes (Bernie) or the 1.5 million votes for the Green party, even though both were up dramatically in 2016.

J

[Sour Masher]

I think we can offset teens on both sides of the aisle by those that have died since 2016 (sorry for morbid).

And the youth vote goes to Biden doesn't it?

I was really referring to someone who voted against Trump in 2016 who is now been convinced to switch to voting for him. I've never heard of that person or group, but I'm sure it exists (even if in small numbers).

I have never heard of one either, although I am seeing just as many Trump signs, if not more, in my district (which leans right), as there were in 2016. Whether that means more voters, or just more people willing to admit to support they gave in 2016, I don't know. It makes me anxious either way.

[Sour Masher]

Fine. I will. Hillary received 65.8 million votes. with population growth, that would be 67.2 million. Biden won't get even the 65.8.

It would not shock me to see an increase in the 1.1 million write votes (Bernie) or the 1.5 million votes for the Green party, even though both were up dramatically in 2016.

J

You are moving the goal posts here. You initially said Biden wouldn't even get close to 65.8 million votes.

I wouldn't bet the farm on him getting over 67 million either, fwiw, especially if we end up with a SC that throws out millions of votes for him. We already have 100s of thousands of mail-in votes potentially in peril, because the return envelopes had the wrong addresses on them. Who know how many mail-in votes end up being counted and which get thrown out for hanging chad reasons? And that is going to affect Biden more than Trump.

I feel more confident, for this reason, in claiming that Trump will not exceed the 63 million votes he got in 2016. I believe you suggested he would get 70+ million votes. I'll make an avatar bet on a line in between the two. If you want to take the over at 66.5 million, I will take the under.

[The Feral Slasher]

You are moving the goal posts here.

Shocking !!!!

[Sour Masher]

Shocking !!!!

I'm still waiting for him to say "I never said that." .

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm still waiting for him to say "I never said that." .

well, it's kind of like his hero... it's not what he says, it's what he means