Election 2020

[umjewman]

Here's the article from Time magazine from a week ago regarding Biden's zero field offices in Michigan, in case folks missed it.

https://time.com/5889093/joe-biden-michigan-campaign/

Yeah, that's pretty terrible. You can move a lot of things online but, even with corona, you need to at least have SOME physical presence in a state that was decided by 10,000 votes last time out.

[onejayhawk]

I don't have it wrong, and I am picking nits, because after all this time, I still am not certain if you are purposefully abstruse, or accidently so. If the latter, I want to continue to press upon you the need for precision and clarity in your communication, because it matters. You represent a viewpoint few hold here, so I want to be able to engage your ideas, but so very often, they are obfuscated by poor wording. If that is not purposeful trolling, I implore you to be more mindful with your wording, so we can all understand your arguments without having to tease them out.

Here now, finally, with this post, your initial meaning is clear, and a potentially good point is found underneath the fog. Your claim seems to be that since those candidates will not run in 2020, their votes will all go to Trump. I understand the assumption--after all, those that voted for those two would naturally throw in with the Republican, given no other option. However, that is just an assumption, not a supported claim in this case, and there is evidence that suggests that while most of those voters would vote Republican, if no right of center 3rd party candidate is running, they will not do so when that candidate is Donald Trump (it also dismisses the possibility that JoJo will pull a good amount of voters for the Libertarian ticket). Do you have any evidence, beyond your assumption, that supports those voters will all vote for Trump in 2020?

That's not far off. Better to say that McMullin and Gary Johnson benefitted from those hesitant to support Trump but averse to Democrats.

2016 saw a significant increase in 3rd part and other voting vs 2012. For example, there were well over a million write in votes. I am not crediting Trump with any of those, since the obvious candidate is Bernie Sanders. Green party increased about 450K. I would credit those to Biden if I expected a return to norm. Libertarian votes increased by well over 3 million, 1.276 MM in 2012 to 4.489 MM in 2016. Between the Libertarian increase and the McMullin votes, it's about 4 million Democrat averse voters. Until we get some four way polling, those votes are penciled to Trump.

Hmmm...I'm not considering NC or Iowa locks. Your point about Michigan in the earlier post is stunning - while Biden has shown in Michigan and Wisconsin, his lack of field offices in Michigan is a huge error.

Unlike 2016, Trump is putting major money into his ground game. Biden is buying ad time.

Obtuse - Angle more than 90°
Abstruse - Difficult to comprehend

I think both work in context.

J

[chancellor]

Not defending Biden here, but is the criticism of Biden's lack of ground game in Michigan really a criticism of his larger pandemic campaigning strategy to shift away from boots on the ground, knocking on doors campaigning? My understanding is that he has moved away from that across everywhere.

And it would frighten me, but I recall how very, very little he actually did in South Carolina. At the time, I thought that would be his Alamo. But it ended up being his Normandy. So, I just don't know. Logically, obviously, it does not make sense to ignore Michigan. It is scary if he is doing so, unless he knows something we do not, or his campaign does, rather.

Well, to Teenwolf's point, that's the type of "knowledge" that did the Clinton campaign in - not that it will here, but lack of field offices in a state that will likely be very, very close is an unforced error.

Per the 3rd party issue, no, they couldn't do that straight up. But whisper in the right 501c group's ear, and who knows what could happen. Of course, coordinating with 501c groups is illegal, so we're sure neither the Dems nor the GOP EVER do that.

[frae]

CBC News put up a new interactive election game. Pick the winner in each battleground state to find the winner. I played 3 likely scenarios, and Trump won 2 of 3.

Looking at the math is terrifying. I consider some states locks for Trump: North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Texas. Under this scenario, Trump only needs to win Florida, and any one other state from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona. That seems quite possible to me. If Biden needs Florida it will be 2000 re-run, Brooks Brothers riots 2.0 (this time with guns!) and the Dems will fold again.

Edit: here's the link if you want to play out a couple scenarios.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...battlegrounds/

NC is definitely a tossup by any poll measurement at this time. Iowa has an A+ poll out today that is tied at 47. GA is rated a tossup on Cook political and every poll we see puts it there, but this is a state where I need to see it happen before I believe it. Obama won NC and IA and I think Biden is going to win back a lot of Obama/Trump voters this cycle.

The electoral map remains an advantage for Trump but polling continues to track well for Biden to get enough electoral votes.

I will only cite polling and historical voting so to me MI is the easiest win of the old blue wall. AZ by polling and having elected Sinema and now very likely to elect Kelly is also rated a lean D on Cook seems to be the best trending non-traditional pickup. No data I have seen suggests NH, NV, Maine, or MN are going to flip to trump. WI is also polling consistently strongly for Biden at this point. In fact 538 has tons of polls up since August and Trump leads by 1 point in only 1 by Trafalgar which almost shouldn't count.

So fo me the pickups are MI, WI, and AZ. I will concede PA is a funny state to project right now and there is a lot going on including that the SC here ruled they would throw out "naked ballots" which is basically ballots mailed back but not in the security envelope. These were allowed to count in the primary and for a state that doesn't do a lot of mail in voting historically this could be an issue. That said again lots of 538 polls and Trump has only led 1 by 1 point in July and it was a B/C rated poll. So if all the data says Biden is leading and PA has voted traditionally democratic the odds are it votes D here and that is the ball game.

FL, toss up, crazy ass state, not worth figuring out just cross our fingers and hope.

NC - True tossup could go either way, Cunningham seems to be doing well in the Senate race which maybe helps up the ballot?

IA - If Biden is doing well in MI and MN there is no reason he doesn't play well with a similar midwest demo and the polls show it.

OH - If Biden wins Ohio he has won MI, WI and PA and it just doesn't matter. I'd still bet Trump wins here, but I like that he has to spend money and time on it.

TX and GA - They might be close, but they won't be the tipping point, but again money and resources from Trump defending them help.

So to me Trump is playing all the defense and Biden has all the outs, Trump HAS to win FL and Biden would like to but the math works without it. I like the position Biden sits in today and the 538 probabliity of 77/100 times Biden wins reflects that.

[revo]

CBC News put up a new interactive election game. Pick the winner in each battleground state to find the winner. I played 3 likely scenarios, and Trump won 2 of 3.

Looking at the math is terrifying. I consider some states locks for Trump: North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Texas. Under this scenario, Trump only needs to win Florida, and any one other state from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona. That seems quite possible to me. If Biden needs Florida it will be 2000 re-run, Brooks Brothers riots 2.0 (this time with guns!) and the Dems will fold again.

Edit: here's the link if you want to play out a couple scenarios.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...battlegrounds/

Cool site. I came up with Biden 305-233, or if Dopey wins Florida, 276-262.

[Sour Masher]

Cool site. I came up with Biden 305-233, or if Dopey wins Florida, 276-262.

It is a cool site. I had it 282-256, closer than I'd like, and that is with Arizona and Nevada, and I'm not confident in them. If they swing to Trump, it would mean his win based on my picks. I can't trust Biden will win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, or North Carolina, and no way he wins Texas.

[onejayhawk]

It is a cool site. I had it 282-256, closer than I'd like, and that is with Arizona and Nevada, and I'm not confident in them. If they swing to Trump, it would mean his win based on my picks. I can't trust Biden will win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, or North Carolina, and no way he wins Texas.

I'm with you on most of this, though I give AZ to Trump. Another one, not on the site's list, is Minnesota. If Trump gets some momentum going, then it's no longer close enough to bother.

Cool site. I came up with Biden 305-233, or if Dopey wins Florida, 276-262.

Here again, MN would do the job for Trump.

J

[frae]

Since some August polling showed MN being close we have seen 3 A rated or better polls show the opposite in Sept with Biden leading by 9, 9, and 16 and as importantly in those lead by 9's he was over 50%. I'll say the +16 is an outlier but let's say it is an outlier by even 8 points Biden is up 8 in that poll. I see zero evidence of MN moving in any polling data this month.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

Nevada does lack polling so more questions there, but the only A+ poll there has Biden up 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/nevada/

Arizona being a state that D's are hoping to swing is closer than those two in terms of likelihood, but polling in Sept of A- or better polls has Biden +9, +9 and then the Monmouth poll that shows an even a +2 and a +4 which I don't know how to compare them but they came out the same day.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

[DMT]

Silly boy believing polls. Junior high math teaches us to properly ignore those.

[chancellor]

So to me Trump is playing all the defense and Biden has all the outs, Trump HAS to win FL and Biden would like to but the math works without it. I like the position Biden sits in today and the 538 probabliity of 77/100 times Biden wins reflects that.

Only 77/100? That's going to make a lot of your counterparts on the board very, very nervous.

[Sour Masher]

I'm with you on most of this, though I give AZ to Trump. Another one, not on the site's list, is Minnesota. If Trump gets some momentum going, then it's no longer close enough to bother.


Here again, MN would do the job for Trump.

J

Minnesota is one of the states on the site.

[Sour Masher]

Only 77/100? That's going to make a lot of your counterparts on the board very, very nervous.

Seemingly, many here are confident in the polls. I hope I can be forgiven for being a nervous nellie, given how off they were in 2016. Although, I have read good things about corrections made since then, so these should be more accurate. We will see.

[Ken]

Wait why is 77/100 news? Seems like that's about where we've been for a while. It's never been a 100% lock.

[frae]

Only 77/100? That's going to make a lot of your counterparts on the board very, very nervous.

That’s an uptick from 71/29 when the model debuted.

[Ken]

That’s an uptick from 71/29 when the model debuted.

so why would it make people nervous?

I'm so confused.