Election 2020

[baldgriff]

These polls are interesting - but lets not forget the Electoral College. By popularity Trump is close in those polls, and he may still be able to win there.

[In the Corn]

These polls are interesting - but lets not forget the Electoral College. By popularity Trump is close in those polls, and he may still be able to win there.

You make a very important point. This is also where someone who is a moderate will help, especially in the Midwest. Hillary, while a moderate, was a tainted candidate and had a poor campaign strategy for the Midwest. Any moderate who can pull WI, MI, OH and PA from Trump will easily win.

[Teenwolf]

Sometimes centrist decide to keep the crap they have, as they don't know what the other turd smells like.

I think most everyone is accepting of incremental change. Wholesale change is very difficult.

Until you see a lot of the older Baby Boomers starting to die off, you're going to see a lot of support for Trump.

That's exactly where your assumption goes wrong, thinking that baby boomers are a larger and more important voting bloc than millenials. Did you know that 2019 is the year that millenials overtake boomers as a larger voting group? So by November of 2020, if millenials outnumber boomers by a 5-10% margin, even if they have a 10% lower turnout, their influence would still equal boomers, who largely support Trump.

So you want to choose someone who won't excite the biggest base of Democratic voters, who are shown to support Dems at a 2-1 ratio, so long as they're progressive... you want to go the Hillary route and instead try to peel away fanatical Trump supporters by prematurely "meeting in the middle", against a viciously uncompromising Republican party? Think that would go well, or produce anything? On income inequality, health care, marijuana legalization, $15/hr minimum wage, free college, you name it. The "far-left" aligns much closer with popular opinion than centrism which declares these popular opinions as too pie-in-the-sky. That won't get it done. Not with Bernie jumping in. 50% of the country make less than $30K/yr. The economic boom is a mirage, as real wages are stagnant. You think they're going to get excited by Kamala Harris LIFT act, a middle class tax scheme? When it's set in contrast to Bernie? I doubt it, but we shall see.

[Mithrandir]

That's exactly where your assumption goes wrong, thinking that baby boomers are a larger and more important voting bloc than millenials. Did you know that 2019 is the year that millenials overtake boomers as a larger voting group? So by November of 2020, if millenials outnumber boomers by a 5-10% margin, even if they have a 10% lower turnout, their influence would still equal boomers, who largely support Trump.

So you want to choose someone who won't excite the biggest base of Democratic voters, who are shown to support Dems at a 2-1 ratio, so long as they're progressive... you want to go the Hillary route and instead try to peel away fanatical Trump supporters by prematurely "meeting in the middle", against a viciously uncompromising Republican party? Think that would go well, or produce anything? On income inequality, health care, marijuana legalization, $15/hr minimum wage, free college, you name it. The "far-left" aligns much closer with popular opinion than centrism which declares these popular opinions as too pie-in-the-sky. That won't get it done. Not with Bernie jumping in. 50% of the country make less than $30K/yr. The economic boom is a mirage, as real wages are stagnant. You think they're going to get excited by Kamala Harris LIFT act, a middle class tax scheme? When it's set in contrast to Bernie? I doubt it, but we shall see.

But here's is the real key......THEY HAVE TO ACTUALLY VOTE!!!!!

[swampdragon]

I did a quick google search and found this
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...-s-electorate/

potential voting millennials is growing but they are still not a substantial percentage is not voting compared to other groups.

[baldgriff]

But here's is the real key......THEY HAVE TO ACTUALLY VOTE!!!!!

Wait a tick...... you mean I have to actually get up and go someplace that maintains some semblance of a controlled environment in order to perform a task. Meh - too much work.

LOL!

[baldgriff]

Its actually a brilliant long term strategy by the political parties. Make the process unappealing to be involved in, so fewer and fewer take part in the process. Quit teaching kids in elementary and high school about the political process, so they are less likely to take part in the process. The less interested they are - the more power the parties can take.

[swampdragon]

Its actually a brilliant long term strategy by the political parties. Make the process unappealing to be involved in, so fewer and fewer take part in the process. Quit teaching kids in elementary and high school about the political process, so they are less likely to take part in the process. The less interested they are - the more power the parties can take.

yep
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/86002635-132.html

and then hire as secretary of education a person who does not want to see public schools succeed

[B-Fly]

Sanders doesn't just appeal to millennials. He showed he can appeal to the white working class better than candidates whose message is more based on social justice rather than economic fairness. That could be very successful in the Midwest swing states. His campaign in 2016 earned the right to be taken seriously again in 2020, but he needs to show he can bring voters of color into his "coalition" if he wants to emerge as the nominee. Maybe AOC would be able to help him do that if she became a strong early surrogate.

[In the Corn]

Sanders doesn't just appeal to millennials. He showed he can appeal to the white working class better than candidates whose message is more based on social justice rather than economic fairness. That could be very successful in the Midwest swing states. His campaign in 2016 earned the right to be taken seriously again in 2020, but he needs to show he can bring voters of color into his "coalition" if he wants to emerge as the nominee. Maybe AOC would be able to help him do that if she became a strong early surrogate.

I find it interesting the the esteemed RJ Political Wonk, Bob Kohm posted on Facebook, "Go away, Bernie."

AOC needs to find her grounding. I'm in agreement with some her ideas, but there seems to be little substance behind it.

[DMT]

Sanders doesn't just appeal to millennials. He showed he can appeal to the white working class better than candidates whose message is more based on social justice rather than economic fairness. That could be very successful in the Midwest swing states. His campaign in 2016 earned the right to be taken seriously again in 2020, but he needs to show he can bring voters of color into his "coalition" if he wants to emerge as the nominee. Maybe AOC would be able to help him do that if she became a strong early surrogate.

Yep, totally agree that is the key for Sanders and I think his greater name recognition this time around will help. Hopefully the corporatist elites in the Democratic Party don't try to marginalize him again considering how widely supported his proposals are. It will also help that there isn't an "anointed" candidate like there was last time.

[DMT]

I find it interesting the the esteemed RJ Political Wonk, Bob Kohm posted on Facebook, "Go away, Bernie."

AOC needs to find her grounding. I'm in agreement with some her ideas, but there seems to be little substance behind it.

Kohm was always firmly entrenched in the center, except on foreign policy where he was a Neo-Conservative.

[B-Fly]

I still would rather a centrist candidate win than a more progressive candidate lose and am not convinced, at all, that a very progressive candidate would win.

I too would rather see any one of the Democratic candidates win over seeing my favorite candidate win the nomination and lose, no question. On a scale of 1 to 10, Trump is a 1, and the Democrats are all 7s, 8s or 9s. Heck, even Weld or Kasich would be 5s in comparison to Trump for me. So yes, a lot of it for me comes down to an assessment around who is the best candidate to win versus Trump. I'm not convinced, necessarily, that "centrism", broadly defined, will perform better than "progressivism", broadly defined, in the critical swing states. I think it comes down to the clarity of the message and the connection that the candidate is able to establish with voters around the message and the policies, and yeah, being able to win PA, MI, WI, MN, FL, etc, by a few percentage points, versus being able to win NY/CA by 50 percentage points.

[swampdragon]

I too would rather see any one of the Democratic candidates win over seeing my favorite candidate win the nomination and lose, no question. On a scale of 1 to 10, Trump is a 1, and the Democrats are all 7s, 8s or 9s. Heck, even Weld or Kasich would be 5s in comparison to Trump for me. So yes, a lot of it for me comes down to an assessment around who is the best candidate to win versus Trump. I'm not convinced, necessarily, that "centrism", broadly defined, will perform better than "progressivism", broadly defined, in the critical swing states. I think it comes down to the clarity of the message and the connection that the candidate is able to establish with voters around the message and the policies, and yeah, being able to win PA, MI, WI, MN, FL, etc, by a few percentage points, versus being able to win NY/CA by 50 percentage points.

agree mostly and we really don't know have the faintest idea who that person is at this time - and there are a few more that havent been added to the list yet

[Teenwolf]

I like this guy's analysis. He believes Sanders would sweep the midwest, for much of the reasoning B-Fly mentioned already. Sanders has the highest approval rating in the country, and I keep seeing this new critique of him that "everybody adopted all of your ideas already, so do you even serve a purpose?".... it makes me laugh so hard. MSM underestimates Sanders popularity, bigly. I'm glad B-Fly sees a path to Sanders winning. I cannot wait to see the double whammy impact of AOC endorsing Bernie and the entire media attacking her for it.

Every single candidate's rollout has been a disaster, IMO, except for Buttigieg, Yang, and now Sanders. In order of awfulness: Warren, Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, and to a lesser degree, Tulsi, Gillibrand... all extremely problematic. I'm confident they'll be sniffed out. Tulsi remains a wildcard. I think she's a threat to Bernie's left consolidation more than anybody.

Biden jumping in would be like the end of The Running Man, where Jesse Ventura comes out of retirement to create a believable narrative that Biden somehow has a better chance of winning. Would people buy that argument? I doubt it. I hope Biden runs. I think his polling is entirely based on name recognition, and he would be the Jeb '16 of 2020. Just my take though.

Bernie running means Howard Schultz will burn more money to keep Trump's tax cuts in play. But I honestly think he'll campaign hard enough that it spawns a Starbucks boycott to keep him out of the race. That's my hope, anyway.