Election 2020

[frae]

Dare to dream, but I'll believe it all on November 4th.

I'm with you, but to go along with the polls the gambling odds have shifted starkly in the last two months...

https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2020-presidential-election-betting-civil-unrest-puts-odds-on-bidens-side/

Don't think for a second I am getting complacent, but I'd rather be where Biden is today than where Trump is. If Biden were trailing at this point after all the negatives Trump is dealing with I would be resigned to the fact that Trump was going to win, but all of this data is currently optimistic and all I can look at is the data. As we get closer those 6 battleground states will get polled a lot this time and we should have a clearer idea if they are truly leaning Biden or if they are more a tossup.

[revo]

I'm with you, but to go along with the polls the gambling odds have shifted starkly in the last two months...

https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2020-presidential-election-betting-civil-unrest-puts-odds-on-bidens-side/

Don't think for a second I am getting complacent, but I'd rather be where Biden is today than where Trump is. If Biden were trailing at this point after all the negatives Trump is dealing with I would be resigned to the fact that Trump was going to win, but all of this data is currently optimistic and all I can look at is the data. As we get closer those 6 battleground states will get polled a lot this time and we should have a clearer idea if they are truly leaning Biden or if they are more a tossup.

Yes, Biden has surged among the bookies:

RCP Average	6/18	51.3	42.0	Biden +9.3
Betfair	       June 18th	54	41	Biden +13
Betsson	           June 18th	50	43	Biden +7
Bovada	        June 18th	51	45	Biden +6
Bwin	       June 18th	51	42	Biden +9
Matchbook	June 18th	50	42	Biden +8
Smarkets	June 18th	50	38	Biden +12
SpreadEx	June 18th	54	41	Biden +13
Unibet	        June 18th	51	43	Biden +8
Vbet	        June 18th	51	43	Biden +8

[heyelander]

The Biden campaign brought in $80 million in the month of May. This after fundraising totals of $60m in April and $79m in March.

Hey TW, remember when you mocked Biden's fundraising? Yeah, that aged well!

I've thought about donating to Biden, but I feel like that's just encouraging him to come out of his basement, and I'd almost rather him hunker down there and stay quiet until after the election.

[DMT]

I've thought about donating to Biden, but I feel like that's just encouraging him to come out of his basement, and I'd almost rather him hunker down there and stay quiet until after the election.

Maybe you can attach a note with your donation. "Please stay in your basement, and don't spend this $5 all at once".

[heyelander]

Maybe you can attach a note with your donation. "Please stay in your basement, and don't spend this $5 all at once".

I could just go with a DoorDash gift card or something maybe.

[frae]

Montana Senate race is moved to a toss up rating by Cook Political. This one seemed destined for a while now, that makes 5 GOP held Senate seats as true toss ups. Assuming KS isn't dumb enough to nominate Kobach Iowa is the next most likely in my mind to move to toss up. The Georgia seats are harder to read, but those are the other two in the lean category. The RNC has to be getting quite worried about their Senate majority at this time.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/montana-senate/montana-senate-moves-toss

[Sour Masher]

Maybe you can attach a note with your donation. "Please stay in your basement, and don't spend this $5 all at once".

I think he'd spend it on records for his gramophone.

[Sour Masher]

I'm with you, but to go along with the polls the gambling odds have shifted starkly in the last two months...

https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2020-presidential-election-betting-civil-unrest-puts-odds-on-bidens-side/

Don't think for a second I am getting complacent, but I'd rather be where Biden is today than where Trump is. If Biden were trailing at this point after all the negatives Trump is dealing with I would be resigned to the fact that Trump was going to win, but all of this data is currently optimistic and all I can look at is the data. As we get closer those 6 battleground states will get polled a lot this time and we should have a clearer idea if they are truly leaning Biden or if they are more a tossup.

The gambling odds make me feel good. I trust the money . I still worry about voter suppression tactics, though.Not every person that says they want to vote for Biden in a poll will find it easy to do so come November.

[revo]

Amy Klobuchar sees the writing on the wall and withdraws her name from the Biden Veepstakes.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Furthermore, the "keep Biden in the basement" strategy is paying off in spades for the Dems, as the GOP watches Dopey Don implode and they are in pure panic mode and now wants to challenge the Dems to more than 3 televised debates:

"Joe Biden hasn’t held a press conference in 77 days but Democrats aren’t feeling much pressure to put the presumptive nominee front and center at the moment.

Biden has, for the most part, kept a low profile throughout the coronavirus pandemic and weeks of demonstrations for racial justice across the country. Over that time, Biden has built up a healthy lead in the polls and emerged as the heavy favorite for now to be the next president.

Meanwhile, Republicans have watched with growing alarm as President Trump’s polling numbers have fallen to frightening new lows for an incumbent.

The Trump campaign is desperate to draw Biden into the fray, believing the gaffe-prone former vice president would make some potentially game-changing mistakes during unscripted moments in the public eye.

But there is little pressure on Biden to change course, at least in the near term."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503485-gop-fears-bidens-low-key-campaign-is-paying-off

[frae]

Cook Political did its June updates to the electoral college map. Michigan moves from tossup to lean D, Iowa and Ohio move from likey R to lean R. Ohio and Iowa are not the tipping point states in this cycle, but it would be nice to see them both move back closer to purple states for the Democratic party. The change to Michigan is the important one it moves Biden to 248 with Lean/Likely states and Trump with 204. This means Biden can win with so many combinations. Just win Florida. Win PA and any other tossup. AZ or WI and NC. The only combo that won't win it is WI and AZ as that puts him at 269 in which case NE 2 could tip him to 270. 270 to wins site also has MI as a lean blue now in its consensus map.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-2020-electoral-college-ratings

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-06/EC%20061920.2.pdf

https://www.270towin.com/

https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/06/18/interactive-electoral-senate-maps-based-on-polling_1043.html

[revo]

Ooof ('nuff said):

Florida: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 41	Biden +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 49, Trump 38	Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 36	Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 50, Trump 40	Biden +10
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 49, Trump 40	Biden +9
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 48, Trump 41	Biden +7

[Sour Masher]

Ooof ('nuff said):

Florida: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 41	Biden +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 49, Trump 38	Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 36	Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 50, Trump 40	Biden +10
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 49, Trump 40	Biden +9
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 48, Trump 41	Biden +7

Dayum. Now these numbers, in these states, make me feel warm and fuzzy. Honestly, I don't know why Biden agreed to debate Trump. His campaign strategy of hiding in the back of the class while the class clown gets all of the attention is working great.

[frae]

And just as important to Biden's ability to govern from NYT/Sienna are the senate polls..

AZ - Kelly 47-McSally 38
MI Peters 41 - James 31
NC Cunningham 42 - Tillis 39

Yesterday Quinnipiac had Biden up 46-45 in Ohio which won't be the tipping point, but good to see that state as close. Marquette Law rated A/B had Biden up 51-42 in WI and that NYT/Sienna poll nationwide had Biden up 50 - 36. Those state polls in the NYT/Sienna could have a bit of noise to them as the sample isn't huge but all the people that I follow about polling do agree the picture is clear right now that Trump is losing support among almost every group.

If you are a Republican running for Senate in most states you have to be worried that the top of the ticket could be a problem for you. You can't bash Trump because he does have a staunch base in the party, but you aren't going to win an Ind. voters by embracing him.

[DMT]

If you are a Republican running for Senate in most states you have to be worried that the top of the ticket could be a problem for you. You can't bash Trump because he does have a staunch base in the party, but you aren't going to win an Ind. voters by embracing him.

That ship has long sailed; every Republican Senator is hitched to Trump as they're entirely responsible for the sociopathic mass murderer remaining in office.

[Sour Masher]

That ship has long sailed; every Republican Senator is hitched to Trump as they're entirely responsible for the sociopathic mass murderer remaining in office.

It would be really, really great to see a reckoning for the GOP because of their hitching their wagon to Trump. It will send a clear message to the party that Trumpism is NOT their future path to stay viable.