Election 2020

[revo]

FWIW, Clinton was actually +18 in May, 2016 Quinnipiac poll as you can see here (it’s the first poll listed):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

As you see, it did tighten fairly quickly shortly after that.

According to this link, Trump led in four of the five polls for this same timeframe in May 2016.

The Quinnipiac poll you’re referring to, which is the first one listed, is for May 2015.

Doesn’t really matter, Clinton regained a large lead the next month.

The big difference, of course, with the 2016 election is that one person is now an incumbent, whereas neither were then.

For an incumbent president to be in the polling position Trump is in now is nearly unprecedented (not unpresidented, lol).

And the economic data will only get worse by Election Day. Q3 data comes out after the election.

[nots]

Good catch on the year— I misread that.
Still too early to be spiking the football imo..

[Teenwolf]

According to this link, Trump led in four of the five polls for this same timeframe in May 2016.

The Quinnipiac poll you’re referring to, which is the first one listed, is for May 2015.

Doesn’t really matter, Clinton regained a large lead the next month.

The big difference, of course, with the 2016 election is that one person is now an incumbent, whereas neither were then.

For an incumbent president to be in the polling position Trump is in now is nearly unprecedented (not unpresidented, lol).

And the economic data will only get worse by Election Day. Q3 data comes out after the election.

So he has the same approval rating now or slightly higher than it was the day he was elected. It was unprecedented that he won the first time being so unpopular. But now he holds all of the strutural advantages derived from being the incumbant. You better believe he's going to use every trick in the book, voter suppression, intimidation, etc.

Given what a piece of shit Trump has been for 4 years, the fact that the polls are much the same, while Trump has consolidated his base and Biden hasn't, that's terrifying to me. Trump should be polling under 10% approval right now. He has been as low as 35-40% approval at times, but he's consistently bumped up to the 45-50% range. Those metrics don't scare you?

[Teenwolf]

Michael Flynn, Michael Cohen, Russian collusion, Mueller, the impeachment...

The walls are closing in... over and over and over. I just googled it and came up with literally dozens of CNN clips of different anchors with the same refrain "the walls are closing in". We've seen the equivalent of the end of the Jason movie where they dismember and bury him, time after time, only to see him come back stronger.

[gcstomp]

No one is spiking ball, but this is not last cycle, at all.

Without trying too hard, one should be able to point to a hundred reasons trump is in much weaker position this go around. No one has won an election after being impeached. No one has been re-elected when having never even touched a 50% positive favorable rating. While last run trump was against someone with historically poor likeability, he is running against someone who nets positive in that regard, and very much resonates with average joe constituents.

The biden negs are known and not deal breakers, and sex predator is not one of them. His female staff to a one, 62 of them over decades, describe him in glowing positive terms without a hint of the sex assault allegations that would be impossible for trump to shrug off if his 25 accusers were given as much time as reade. A WP article from couple years ago noted re: Biden "He is old, inarticulate, uninspiring and gaffe-prone. He doesn’t have a radical agenda." And? trump scores worse, the best ads that can be run against trump are simply idiotic and hateful things he said a day before. trump has proven out all that could go wrong when running an incompetent imbecile, incapable of absorbing facts that differ from his wishlist reality, with corrupt evil as guiding light.

Biden will name a female running mate, and it wont be a palin level joke to dismiss. It will be of level of Klobuchar, or Kam Harris, or Warren. This is not last cycle, biden is way stronger position because we now know harm trump can do in office, and because trump will be going against someone with net positive likeability, and the wild card of strong economy will not be the helping hand trump was needing it to be, despite all the free money he has doled out to business and the 1%ers.

BTW, anyone catch the news that if trump had taken covid 19 seriously a month earlier and encouraged california type lockdown it would have saved 36k+ lives? Biden wrote an op-ed on January 27 warning that Trump had left the country unprepared to handle the coronavirus outbreak, and proposing steps to counter it. I mean anything that could be a trump strength, Biden is better, and anything that is a Biden weakness, trump has an even more exposed issues. The one thing that is troubling is dems propensity to circular fire squad while repubs will lockstep with a monster because they can comfort themselves with SC appointments or pro life as justification.

[Teenwolf]

No one is spiking ball, but this is not last cycle, at all.

Without trying too hard, one should be able to point to a hundred reasons trump is in much weaker position this go around. No one has won an election after being impeached. No one has been re-elected when having never even touched a 50% positive favorable rating. While last run trump was against someone with historically poor likeability, he is running against someone who nets positive in that regard, and very much resonates with average joe constituents.

The biden negs are known and not deal breakers, and sex predator is not one of them. His female staff to a one, 62 of them over decades, describe him in glowing positive terms without a hint of the sex assault allegations that would be impossible for trump to shrug off if his 25 accusers were given as much time as reade. A WP article from couple years ago noted re: Biden "He is old, inarticulate, uninspiring and gaffe-prone. He doesn’t have a radical agenda." And? trump scores worse, the best ads that can be run against trump are simply idiotic and hateful things he said a day before. trump has proven out all that could go wrong when running an incompetent imbecile, incapable of absorbing facts that differ from his wishlist reality, with corrupt evil as guiding light.

Biden will name a female running mate, and it wont be a palin level joke to dismiss. It will be of level of Klobuchar, or Kam Harris, or Warren. This is not last cycle, biden is way stronger position because we now know harm trump can do in office, and because trump will be going against someone with net positive likeability, and the wild card of strong economy will not be the helping hand trump was needing it to be, despite all the free money he has doled out to business and the 1%ers.

BTW, anyone catch the news that if trump had taken covid 19 seriously a month earlier and encouraged california type lockdown it would have saved 36k+ lives? Biden wrote an op-ed on January 27 warning that Trump had left the country unprepared to handle the coronavirus outbreak, and proposing steps to counter it. I mean anything that could be a trump strength, Biden is better, and anything that is a Biden weakness, trump has an even more exposed issues. The one thing that is troubling is dems propensity to circular fire squad while repubs will lockstep with a monster because they can comfort themselves with SC appointments or pro life as justification.

This is my concern. Under 45 voters are where Biden struggles. They're also much less likely to support a deeply flawed character like Biden who offers zero policy change other than tweeting less than Trump's cultists are to ignore or embrace his flaws. I don't think that's a winning strategy.

Biden just nicknamed Trump "President Tweety"... think that'll get the under 45's excited? How would the current day Biden deliver the dig on camera when he can't properly finish a sentence? How can he win a debate being so obviously and pitifully confused? Trump would obliterate Biden, and like the primary debates, Biden's only defense would be outright lying. Seems unlikely to inspire any voters not already steadfastly anti-Trump. His message of change nothing, but be nicer and tweet less, will not be a winner. If he had the decency to embrace M4A that would get the ball rolling to winning... but unlike Obama saying it was clear now is the time to fight for M4A, Biden thinks now is the time to hide in his basement and eat ice cream. That won't win.

[revo]

So he has the same approval rating now or slightly higher than it was the day he was elected. It was unprecedented that he won the first time being so unpopular. But now he holds all of the strutural advantages derived from being the incumbant. You better believe he's going to use every trick in the book, voter suppression, intimidation, etc.

Given what a piece of shit Trump has been for 4 years, the fact that the polls are much the same, while Trump has consolidated his base and Biden hasn't, that's terrifying to me. Trump should be polling under 10% approval right now. He has been as low as 35-40% approval at times, but he's consistently bumped up to the 45-50% range. Those metrics don't scare you?

Not at all. The reality is that Trump is going to get about 43% of the vote. Nothing's going to change there. We're in the greatest economic and public health challenge in our nation's history and Republicans just don't care, so they’re voting for him anyway. So it's going to boil down to the battleground states, and as we saw in 2016, Trump needed everything to go 100% his way for him to eke out a victory, electoral college votes notwithstanding. 20,000 votes here or there in these states and Clinton would be president.

In a normal year, having the benefits of being an incumbent would be overpowering. But not this year.

And no one is even close to spiking the ball. Well, except for Republicans, that is.

Biden just nicknamed Trump "President Tweety"... think that'll get the under 45's excited?

Shit like this just doesn't matter. You need to get over this. You used this line of reasoning with his folksy bus slogan, which I forget what it was, and that didn't matter a single iota.

How can he win a debate being so obviously and pitifully confused?

We get it. You think he's senile. Fantastic. He still did well enough in the Dem debates, no matter how you try to hype this. And I can point out 100s of instances with our incumbent slurring and/or using nonsensical words and phrases. The fact is, people aren't voting for Biden because he's Biden. Most will be voting for Biden because he's not Trump. Could we have had a more glamorous candidate like Gavin Newsom or Andrew Cuomo? Sure, but it didn't work out this way. 23 other candidates came and went and America still embraced him. He just had one of the greatest comebacks in US political history, and while that seems like it was eons ago, the fact is people still like Biden, mental gaffes or not.

[nots]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-problem-figuring-whether-trump-123910329.html

The more you put him in front of a camera, the better chance Trump has to win.

[Steve 2.0]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-pro...123910329.html

The more you put him in front of a camera, the better chance Trump has to win.

Are there no decent human beings left in the US that either party might run for president? (I'm so disgusted right now)

[umjewman]

Are there no decent human beings left in the US that either party might run for president? (I'm so disgusted right now)

You should run. Do the heavy lifting for once.

[Steve 2.0]

You should run. Do the heavy lifting for once.

I'd just fuck it up.

[umjewman]

I'd just fuck it up.

Well, sure, but at least you're not accused of sexual assault.

[Steve 2.0]

Well, sure, but at least you're not accused of sexual assault.

Ah....the low bar

[Ken]

Well, sure, but at least you're not accused of sexual assault.

It's only a matter of time....

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showthread.php/17544-Stopping-By?p=375320&viewfull=1#post375320

[umjewman]

It's only a matter of time....

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...l=1#post375320

There's no credible evidence that it was not consensual.