Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

With rallies, other major events and possibly even the conventions likely 86'd for the remainder of this campaign for both sides, this will be one of the most bizarre presidential elections ever held. So with those likely gone, public opinion alone will likely dictate the winner, which means most minds are probably already made up.

What could change minds? The economy re-opening and bouncing back, which seems unlikely in the next few months, at least from a data perspective (Q2 and Q3 numbers coming out will dampen some expectations). The virus subsiding, which surely seems possible, but will that help our incumbent? Probably not, as the damage has already been done and the fallout (both economic and investigations into our poor response) is just beginning.

Unfortunately for our incumbent, his base, largely made up of blue collar sorts, are the ones hardest hit by the economic aspect of this. White collar folks can work from home, but factory workers surely cannot. How long will some factories need to be shut down? That's hard to say. With today's unemployment report out with 5.3m new claims, our unemployment rate is now likely at 15%. By November, what will this number be, and will it be anywhere near enough to help?

Yeah, but who will be blamed for the economic hardships? Will his voters see that he played a role in how bad this got for the US, or will they say/think/believe he did everything perfectly, and it is everyone else's fault--the WHO, China, the Democrats. He lies all the time and he is believed all the time.

[DMT]

Yeah, but who will be blamed for the economic hardships? Will his voters see that he played a role in how bad this got for the US, or will they say/think/believe he did everything perfectly, and it is everyone else's fault--the WHO, China, the Democrats. He lies all the time and he is believed all the time.

Lies are much easier to believe when they're only impacting others.

[umjewman]

Yeah, but who will be blamed for the economic hardships? Will his voters see that he played a role in how bad this got for the US, or will they say/think/believe he did everything perfectly, and it is everyone else's fault--the WHO, China, the Democrats. He lies all the time and he is believed all the time.

Hard to say. Everyone loves a good scapegoat. Plus, Trump supporters are about as passionate as it gets. You don't really find too many lukewarm Trump supporters. Feels like most of the people who support him are really all in - to the point where I'm not sure even losing your job will have a significant impact.

[revo]

Yeah, but who will be blamed for the economic hardships? Will his voters see that he played a role in how bad this got for the US, or will they say/think/believe he did everything perfectly, and it is everyone else's fault--the WHO, China, the Democrats. He lies all the time and he is believed all the time.

His followers are too far gone and will believe anything he says. It’s the Independents who need to be swayed. I’m sure the Dopey Regime will try, but I don’t think they succeed.

[frae]

A B rated (according to 538) poll from PPP puts Cal Cunningham up 47-40 on Thom Tillis. This new poll holds similar results to their Feb poll that had Cunningham up 46-41. Biden also holds a one-point lead in this poll 48-47. The favorable unfavorable are interesting here as both Trump and Biden get a 50% unfavorable while Biden only gets 39 favorable to Trumps 45. NC is going to be very much a tossup for the Pres race it seems, but I am more excited to see Cunninghams lead hold up 2 months later. Cunningham also raised 4.4 million in the quarter...

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/14/tillis-challenger-cunningham-raises-nearly-4-4m-in-first-quarter/

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf

And in the I guy can dream category, Amy McGrath outraised Mitch McConnell in quarter one 12.8 million to 7.5 million making them about dead even in cash on hand now, McConnell has 14.9 to her 14.7. The truth is he probably can't lose in KY and the pragmatist in me wants her money poured into MT, IA, KS, AZ and NC, but what a glorious day it will be when Mitch no longer walks the senate halls.

[GwynnInTheHall]

A B rated (according to 538) poll from PPP puts Cal Cunningham up 47-40 on Thom Tillis. This new poll holds similar results to their Feb poll that had Cunningham up 46-41. Biden also holds a one-point lead in this poll 48-47. The favorable unfavorable are interesting here as both Trump and Biden get a 50% unfavorable while Biden only gets 39 favorable to Trumps 45. NC is going to be very much a tossup for the Pres race it seems, but I am more excited to see Cunninghams lead hold up 2 months later. Cunning also raised 4.4 million in the quarter...

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/14/tillis-challenger-cunningham-raises-nearly-4-4m-in-first-quarter/

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf

And in the I guy can dream category, Amy McGrath outraised Mitch McConnell in quarter one 12.8 million to 7.5 million making them about dead even in cash on hand now, McConnell has 14.9 to her 14.7. The truth is he probably can't lose in KY and the pragmatist in me wants her money poured into MT, IA, KS, AZ and NC, but what a glorious day it will be when Mitch no longer walks the senate halls.

Turtles live for hundreds of years.

[Sour Masher]

And in the I guy can dream category, Amy McGrath outraised Mitch McConnell in quarter one 12.8 million to 7.5 million making them about dead even in cash on hand now, McConnell has 14.9 to her 14.7. The truth is he probably can't lose in KY and the pragmatist in me wants her money poured into MT, IA, KS, AZ and NC, but what a glorious day it will be when Mitch no longer walks the senate halls.

Mitch has been challenged before, most recently by a tea party candidate. But he always survives, like the geriatric turtle man that he is. I agree that resources are best spent elsewhere.

[revo]

Time to release the Kraken:

"The 2020 presidential race is about to be hit by an O-bomb.

Former President Barack Obama is champing at the bit to jump into the campaign fray on behalf of his vice president Joe Biden, and is sharpening his knives for President Trump, his aides and advisors told The Post.

“He is very eager to do this,” said a former senior Obama official who remains in regular touch with his old boss. “I certainly expect President Obama to be very active.”

Though Obama has followed the tradition of past presidents in avoiding day-to-day criticism of his successor, those familiar with his thinking say he has been particularly roused in recent months by Trump’s performance handling COVID-19.

“The coronavirus disaster and the [federal] government’s inability to lead on it is searing in his brain … more than anything else Trump has done,” said a second insider. “Obama is generally heartbroken by the Donald Trump presidency.”

Obama insiders said the ex-president would be careful to let Team Biden call the shots and make the final decisions about when and how to deploy him."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/obama-heartbroken-by-trump-eager-to-help-biden-insiders/

[Sour Masher]

I just wish he were able to run for a third term.

[nots]

His track record of getting other Democrats elected hasn’t exactly been sterling.

[revo]

His track record of getting other Democrats elected hasn’t exactly been sterling.

2018 General Election endorsements:
Barack Obama: 232-110, 68%
Donald Trump: 56-40, 58%

I'd take that win rate, thank you very much.

[nots]

I guess you’re right....who did he endorse in 2016 for the very same race he is going to endorse Biden for?
Kraken, lol.

[revo]

I guess you’re right....who did he endorse in 2016 for the very same race he is going to endorse Biden for?
Kraken, lol.

Wow, you got me!!! You should change your name to "Gotcha!" because that's all you like to toss out there. Something can be 99% correct, but if it's 1% off -- "Gotcha!" comes to point it out!

[nots]

Wow, you got me!!! You should change your name to "Gotcha!" because that's all you like to toss out there. Something can be 99% correct, but if it's 1% off -- "Gotcha!" comes to point it out!

Typical of the response I have come to expect from you. There have literally been dozens of articles written by both red and blue writers discussing how short Obama's coattails are. You must have missed everyone of those. Instead, you call the guy electoral Kraken and then back up your fantasy with some cherry picked stat that ignores the elections of 2010, 2012, 2014 and most importantly 2016, when the guy went all in for Hillary (remember the night before election concert at Indpenedenc Hall? Yep, same state Dems lost for 1st time since 1984) who lost to a semi literate man child. Biden is likely (IMO) to win this time but it's not going to be due to Obama's Kracken-ness. Gotcha!

[cardboardbox]

2018 General Election endorsements:
Barack Obama: 232-110, 68%
Donald Trump: 56-40, 58%

I'd take that win rate, thank you very much.

What was O's rate in 2016? How about 2010?