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Good assessment of of Sanders' campaign by Nate Silver.
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If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige -
I would say the bigger difference between the Trump tracking and the Obama tracking is to look at the overall averages during their first 3 plus years in office.Originally posted by cardboardbox View PostI dont think Trump will win, but I just want to point out that his approval rating is about the same as Obama in April 2012.
I think Biden +2 would be plenty to win the EC, 2016 was unusual.
Ignoring the year one Obama honeymoon we see a low of 53.2 - 43 in August 2011 so a disapprove of +10. A high of 52.6- 42.5 approve for +10 approval. Outside of the two 2011's blips noted there he mostly sat at +2 to -2 through 2012 and had multiple sustained periods of getting a positive approval.
Trump's non-year one low is early Jan 2018 at 56.4 - 38.9 for a plus 16 disapprove he also is at +14.7 disapprove in Jan 2019. He has narrowed the gap since Oct 2019 where he was +13.4 disapprove and settled into about +6 disapprove. Now in everything but month one, his best approval average was the +2 disapprove he got recently which I am going to give a good deal of credit to the rally around the flag impact. He has already slipped back to +5.2 disapprove.
So yes they are about the same right now, but Trump has never held an approval rating of plus even in year 1, his closest was a +0.7 disapproval in month one. Overall the Trump disapproval seems much more locked in than what Obama had as Obama had held plus approval ratings for multiple sustained periods outside his honeymoon period.Comment
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That same month (April 2012), Obama had a 7 pt lead on Romney despite the low approval rating.Originally posted by cardboardbox View PostI dont think Trump will win, but I just want to point out that his approval rating is about the same as Obama in April 2012.
I think Biden +2 would be plenty to win the EC, 2016 was unusual.Comment
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Can someone explain to me why President Obama has not come out and backed Biden yet?
This seems like a no-brainer in the quest for Dems to take back the Presidency.Comment
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He will but he understands that now is not the right time would be my guess. We have a global pandemic killing thousands per day.Originally posted by Gregg View PostIf DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel PaigeComment
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That is my guess as well. He is waiting for the new cycle to get to a point where his endorsement won't be buried, likely when we are well on our way down the curve on the death count, around the end of this month or in early May--whenever people are less afraid and more interested in politics than their day-to-day survival. If he doesn't do it eventually and he isn't out there stumping for him, I'd be surprised and suspicious, but not now.Originally posted by DMT View PostComment
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i've met alot of people this year that have no teeth. and i thought, how could you allow that to happen? and i realized, they have lost so much in their life that their teeth don't matter. and drugs have a lot to do with it. but they don't care. they are not worrying about their teeth when every thing they care about is lost. and they aren't old.
they think it's about vengeance. they support Trump because he promises them it. but there is a difference between vengeance and justice.
the question is, are we digging ourselves in a deeper hole with either Trump or Biden? in the long run, the bigger picture. again we didn't end up here alone, the republicans didn't bully democrats into a corner for the last 40 years. evaporating unions and worker rights and creating this inequality. we were complacent. and if you can't wake up to it now, you never will. you are just as guilty as every other selfish person in the world. the only difference is, you are fooling yourself. and that makes your efforts worse than them. at least they are honest. the worst parts of hell are paved with good intentions. but we just can't see it.
now was the time for you to step up. but you didn't. and you are running out of time.Comment
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A lot of "you" references in there.Comment
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you are a lot to handle Ken, i like that. you have a lot to say. we need that. this is your forum dude. interesting times we live in. i fully embrace everyone's opinion. we are sitting at home, with time to think about life waiting out this virus. i want to hear everyone's option on things.
now you get to live like i do, in my environment.Comment
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you realized your bullshit is just a click away tomorrow. i've deleted more posts than i made. i hold that honor. because tomorrow is another day. yesterday is gone dude. it doesn't exist any more. and you are full of bullshit, we can smell our own. btw that's not how campsites work.Comment
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you have no idea what it takes to survive in the world i live in now. that cat is the center of everything. these guys whose land i live on. they are worse animals. but they see me with the cat that has roamed around for ten years and place their trust in me because of it.
you live in some dumb digital world. it will be your undoing. i know, i lived in it too.
fucking assholesComment
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this cat is so socialize yet it's like trying to train a police dog. its the hyperthyroidism. it's just completely on top of things. now i know why you are Fresno's shit list Ken. i don't know you, maybe i was being too nice.
see other member know when to stay away from me. when i get drunk and look for answers. but i trust Bob's judgement. if he had a problem with you, i do.Comment
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living your pretty little computer life. you'd be eaten alive out here. they live by a code it would take you years to recognize and adapt to.Comment
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