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Since I am bored today here is something we don't talk about a lot here, the 2020 senate race.
These talks about how Cook and Crystal Ball have moved some races and how generally the senate chances are improving for Democrats. The seats to defend this cycle favors the Democrats as the Republicans are defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12. The bad news was of those 23 you would only say 1 or 2 are in blue states (is Maine blue or purple) and 2-3 are in purple states (again Maine). So that means 19 of the seats the Republicans are defending are in red states, there lean of red is different from light red Iowa to ruby red Oklahoma. Add to this that of the 12 seats the Democrats are holding 1 is almost a certain loss in Alabama with Doug Jones.
So why do things look better today than maybe a year ago for Democrats? They are putting more states in play is the main reason. There are two states that Democrats need to win to start and that is Colorado and Arizona. Crystal Ball has moved them to lean Dem and they are races where the Democrats must win. I assume Hickenlooper wins the CO primary and Mark Kelly is running in the special election against the appointed Martha McSally who already lost statewide in 2018.
So for the sake of my argument, I am going to give AL back to the Rep. and give AZ and CO to the Dem. That is a +1, but for control, the Dem need +3 and Biden or +4.
The next two top targets are Maine and NC. Susan Collins's unfavorable ratings in her state have grown quite a bit in the last two years she was up to a 52% disapproval rating in January which is not good for an incumbent Sen. She is also going up against a solid candidate in Sara Gideon who was the speaker of the house in Maine. Tillis has in going to have a tough race against Cal Cunningham especially as areas of NC move bluer. These are two races where I want to see a lot of polling in these races as they are tossups right now.
Ok so now we go into the area of leans one way or the other. The Democrats only have one lean race, Gary Peters in MI, John James is running against Peters. James lost in 2018 to Stabenow by about 6.5 points but is taking another shot. Polls have Peters up about 6 points.
The Republicans have 4 leans to protect. The one that is most interesting to me is now Montana. Bullock is in the race and is popular in the state, his entry takes a dead race and moves it to lean with a chance to get to tossup before election day. Iowa is also interesting to look at as Jodi Ernst's approval rating has slipped from 57% to 47% in just over a year. There is no definite Dem nominee yet so I can't analyze that end yet.
The other two leans are in GA and KS. Georgia is the seat that Kelly Loeffler is holding (to enhance her stock portfolio, maybe?). Could Kansas vote for a Democrat for the Senate? Well, Kris Kobach is running again after losing the Governors race to a Democrat in 2018. If Kobach wins the primary all bets are off because he has already shown he can lose a statewide race.
Everything else is rated as likely or solid on both sides. So the path for the Democrats is win AZ - CO, lose AL because they are going to lose, and then pick up 2-3 from NC, Maine, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, or Georgia. Lots to play out still, but the Democrats have some actual outs this time because they can play offense.
These talks about how Cook and Crystal Ball have moved some races and how generally the senate chances are improving for Democrats. The seats to defend this cycle favors the Democrats as the Republicans are defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12. The bad news was of those 23 you would only say 1 or 2 are in blue states (is Maine blue or purple) and 2-3 are in purple states (again Maine). So that means 19 of the seats the Republicans are defending are in red states, there lean of red is different from light red Iowa to ruby red Oklahoma. Add to this that of the 12 seats the Democrats are holding 1 is almost a certain loss in Alabama with Doug Jones.
So why do things look better today than maybe a year ago for Democrats? They are putting more states in play is the main reason. There are two states that Democrats need to win to start and that is Colorado and Arizona. Crystal Ball has moved them to lean Dem and they are races where the Democrats must win. I assume Hickenlooper wins the CO primary and Mark Kelly is running in the special election against the appointed Martha McSally who already lost statewide in 2018.
So for the sake of my argument, I am going to give AL back to the Rep. and give AZ and CO to the Dem. That is a +1, but for control, the Dem need +3 and Biden or +4.
The next two top targets are Maine and NC. Susan Collins's unfavorable ratings in her state have grown quite a bit in the last two years she was up to a 52% disapproval rating in January which is not good for an incumbent Sen. She is also going up against a solid candidate in Sara Gideon who was the speaker of the house in Maine. Tillis has in going to have a tough race against Cal Cunningham especially as areas of NC move bluer. These are two races where I want to see a lot of polling in these races as they are tossups right now.
Ok so now we go into the area of leans one way or the other. The Democrats only have one lean race, Gary Peters in MI, John James is running against Peters. James lost in 2018 to Stabenow by about 6.5 points but is taking another shot. Polls have Peters up about 6 points.
The Republicans have 4 leans to protect. The one that is most interesting to me is now Montana. Bullock is in the race and is popular in the state, his entry takes a dead race and moves it to lean with a chance to get to tossup before election day. Iowa is also interesting to look at as Jodi Ernst's approval rating has slipped from 57% to 47% in just over a year. There is no definite Dem nominee yet so I can't analyze that end yet.
The other two leans are in GA and KS. Georgia is the seat that Kelly Loeffler is holding (to enhance her stock portfolio, maybe?). Could Kansas vote for a Democrat for the Senate? Well, Kris Kobach is running again after losing the Governors race to a Democrat in 2018. If Kobach wins the primary all bets are off because he has already shown he can lose a statewide race.
Everything else is rated as likely or solid on both sides. So the path for the Democrats is win AZ - CO, lose AL because they are going to lose, and then pick up 2-3 from NC, Maine, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, or Georgia. Lots to play out still, but the Democrats have some actual outs this time because they can play offense.
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