Election 2020

[nots]

I will concede Biden is far from an eloquent speaker at this point, but does it matter? Anyone that watched the 2016 debates strictly for policy and content should agree Clinton killed Trump on facts, but it didn't matter. Trump will bluster and attack with no facts and Biden will stumble through facts and policy. I guess what I took from 2016 is people don't seem to care if you say anything factual or substantive. Both candidates probably come in with at least 42% of the vote going there way. So we have about 16% of the vote to play with and really if we assume that those values play out in swing states we are talking about 16%ish of the vote that matters in WI, MI, PA, FL, AZ, NC, Maine, and then maybe MN, NH, GA, and IA. Really those last 4 states probably only swing from their lean if the election is a big win for one candidate so they don't really matter.

Biden will make errors and Trump will lie, but really 16% of the voters in 6 states (Maine has those weird districts) are going to decide this and I don't think they are going to vote based on some of the terrible word salads these two candidates produce. If I was betting today I'd say I expect Biden to win PA and MI, so he has to win one more of those states (WI, AZ, FL, NC) to get to 270 or it also bring in the crazy possibility of Biden winning the single district in NE that 270 to win has a tossup could give us a 269-269 tie.

It will be close is my guess and if Biden wins it will be because he gets WI or AZ, otherwise I think FL and NC will be harder. Biden has more outs if he wins PA and MI, but if he loses one of those it gets really hard. FL is a tough nut to crack for Democrats and I refuse to ever count on it.

Good analysis, frae. Slightly disagree with the floor being 42%. Carter got 41% vs Reagan with a 3rd party guy getting 7%. McCain got 46% vs Obama. I would estimate the floor for either of these guys is 45% unless a strong 3rd party candidate emerges (Maybe this is the year for the Libertarians....lol, nope).

[frae]

Good analysis, frae. Slightly disagree with the floor being 42%. Carter got 41% vs Reagan with a 3rd party guy getting 7%. McCain got 46% vs Obama. I would estimate the floor for either of these guys is 45% unless a strong 3rd party candidate emerges (Maybe this is the year for the Libertarians....lol, nope).

Yeah, I just didn't want to go too high with the floor, but you are probably right I'd say it is probably 44-45.

[cardboardbox]

I will concede Biden is far from an eloquent speaker at this point, but does it matter? Anyone that watched the 2016 debates strictly for policy and content should agree Clinton killed Trump on facts, but it didn't matter. Trump will bluster and attack with no facts and Biden will stumble through facts and policy. I guess what I took from 2016 is people don't seem to care if you say anything factual or substantive. Both candidates probably come in with at least 42% of the vote going there way. So we have about 16% of the vote to play with and really if we assume that those values play out in swing states we are talking about 16%ish of the vote that matters in WI, MI, PA, FL, AZ, NC, Maine, and then maybe MN, NH, GA, and IA. Really those last 4 states probably only swing from their lean if the election is a big win for one candidate so they don't really matter.

Biden will make errors and Trump will lie, but really 16% of the voters in 6 states (Maine has those weird districts) are going to decide this and I don't think they are going to vote based on some of the terrible word salads these two candidates produce. If I was betting today I'd say I expect Biden to win PA and MI, so he has to win one more of those states (WI, AZ, FL, NC) to get to 270 or it also bring in the crazy possibility of Biden winning the single district in NE that 270 to win has a tossup could give us a 269-269 tie.

It will be close is my guess and if Biden wins it will be because he gets WI or AZ, otherwise I think FL and NC will be harder. Biden has more outs if he wins PA and MI, but if he loses one of those it gets really hard. FL is a tough nut to crack for Democrats and I refuse to ever count on it.

At this point I highly doubt Biden even remembers how to make word salad.

You are right that even a drooling Biden would get 42%, I'd argue maybe even 46-47. I assume I'm the only Trump voter here, is there anyone here that would consider either not voting at all or voting for Trump depending on how bad Biden gets? You'd rationalize that his VP would be an upgrade, no? There's maybe 10% in the middle, the squishies that can be influenced slightly.

Anyway, Biden is going to be an endless source of fun.

[nots]

At this point I highly doubt Biden even remembers how to make word salad.

You are right that even a drooling Biden would get 42%, I'd argue maybe even 46-47. I assume I'm the only Trump voter here, is there anyone here that would consider either not voting at all or voting for Trump depending on how bad Biden gets? You'd rationalize that his VP would be an upgrade, no? There's maybe 10% in the middle, the squishies that can be influenced slightly.

Anyway, Biden is going to be an endless source of fun.

I am not voting for Trump and there isn’t anything that will change that.. As of now I am voting for Biden with the caveat that my support for him is a mile wide and 1/4 inch thick. I may change my mind if:
1. His condition noticeably worsens. I am loathe to diagnose anyone because I am simply not qualified, however, he is acting like my grandfather as he struggled with dementia. Grandad had some really good days and some terrible ones and the good ones became further and further apart as time passed. It is sad to watch for someone you love and I hope that isn’t the case wiith Biden but it is a concern. The TV stuff he did last week was not helpful.
2. He picks someone unqualified as VP. A state senator from Georgia with precious little experience would be a deal breaker for me.
3. The Libertarian Party actually nominates someone qualified. Based on a few interactions with people I used to know who were active in the party, I doubt this is happening. Right now the delegate leader (which in the Libertarian party means nothing) is a guy named Vermin Supreme. Google him. It’s almost like they don’t want a seat at the table. I heard Lincoln Chaffee might be interested which I would applaud but I haven’t heard anything about that for awhile now. Not sure what is going on with their convention—it will probably be postponed.

[revo]

When Biden comes out of his basement and the light shines on his dementia, my popcorn maker is going to be working overtime.

You mean of those who will vote for him, none watched the debates? He is what he is already.

[fuhrdog]

Does Biden sound anymore confused than the alternative?

[nots]

Does Biden sound anymore confused than the alternative?

Is that the bar we are looking to clear?

[frae]

I think Whitmer is a solid pick for Biden for VP at this point. She has executive experience, was a prosecutor, and served 15 years as a state representative and state senator. She has been elevated nationally during the Covid 19 crisis and has stood up to Trump's attacks pretty well. It also helps that she is from one of the major battleground states that she carried in 2018 by a count of 53%-43%. I know she isn't a minority and there might be some pressure to choose someone of color here, but if I was betting today I'd bet on Whitmer.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/490570-biden-confirms-hes-considering-whitmer-for-vp

[nots]

I think Whitmer is a solid pick for Biden for VP at this point. She has executive experience, was a prosecutor, and served 15 years as a state representative and state senator. She has been elevated nationally during the Covid 19 crisis and has stood up to Trump's attacks pretty well. It also helps that she is from one of the major battleground states that she carried in 2018 by a count of 53%-43%. I know she isn't a minority and there might be some pressure to choose someone of color here, but if I was betting today I'd bet on Whitmer.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...whitmer-for-vp

She would be a strong choice. I was thinking she would be a good nominee when I saw her being interviewed on MSNBC the other night.

[Sour Masher]

Is that the bar we are looking to clear?

When this is the only two choices we are left with, it is, unfortunately.

[cardboardbox]

Does Biden sound anymore confused than the alternative?

yes and considering the competition, thats pretty bad.

[DMT]

yes and considering the competition, thats pretty bad.

So we're supposed to care what you think of Biden when you've already said you're voting for Trump? Mmmkay

[nots]

So we're supposed to care what you think of Biden when you've already said you're voting for Trump? Mmmkay

That’s an interesting point of view. I imagine as a Biden voter, you still want the room to care about what you post about Trump, no?

[DMT]

That’s an interesting point of view. I imagine as a Biden voter, you still want the room to care about what you post about Trump, no?

I've acknowledged many times that I'm not a big fan of Biden, but was one of the few to defend him against TW's baseless attacks.

I've said about all there is to say about Trump; namely, that he's a sociopath and anyone who defends him is a wanna-be sociopath. It's a very depressing POV to be honest but there's simply no way to rationally defend that monster.

ETA: I'm happy that you're not one of them.

[GwynnInTheHall]

When this is the only two choices we are left with, it is, unfortunately.

It doesn't have to be.